“If Barack Obama took four years off and then ran in a Democratic caucus in Iowa, would 50% of Democrats vote against Barack Obama?” said Scarborough on his [show](https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe)Tuesday. “No, no. They wouldn’t.”
Exactly what I’ve been saying, a lot of the media right now is acting like this is a crushing victory for him, but if you really look at the numbers and the situation for what it is, is it?
According to polls he underperformed. He was projected to get around 56-57%, he got 51%.
He’s running for reelection, he’s literally the republican incumbent president, getting only half of the people to vote for you just doesn’t seem that impressive. Iowa’s adult population is roughly 2.2 million, so he got about 2.3% of the state to vote for him. This is also deep evangelical state. Is that a wow?
Everyone knows Trumps supporters are the most fervent of pretty much anyone who’s ever ran before. Quite cultish for a lot of them. So they are way more motivated to get out there and vote than anyone going for any of the other candidates and with all that being said, half of the people still mustered the energy to get out there and vote against Trump.
So yeah, I’m sure he will push it and his followers will push it as an historic win, but if you’re really looking at the numbers and the situation for what it is, it shows a lot of vulnerability, an underperformance, and just a pretty bad outcome overall.
Lowest turn out in decades and he got 48% of the republican vote than in 2020. People just stayed home.
The press is generally playing this as a freaking win. Scarborough is actually right on this one. Its not good news.
Only about 1/7 republicans in iowa voted yesterday….
Trump only got support from about half of that number…
And here’s why THAT’S bad for Biden
What Joe failed to mention is there are 718k registered Republicans in Iowa. Only 100k showed up for the Caucus.
All I want is bad news for the GOP.
With all his bloviating about being so far ahead, Trump only getting 51% is hilariously weak and it’s really pissing him off, and I love it.
Maybe 60% of that 51% is all of Trump’s rabid base.
So there’s a good 20+% up for grabs for another candidate, so if the other candidates would grow some balls and attack him, they would gain support.
Yes I’m reaching a bit with those numbers.
I read that 50% of Haley voters would pick Biden over Trump.
It’s honestly shocking that they aren’t the unified monolith they wanted us to think they were!
A lot of folks wanted off the Trump train and they’re maybe stuck with someone they aren’t that excited about.
I’m not excited for Biden either but Trump turns me out to vote against him!
I used to scratch my head wondering how anyone could wind up in a cult. And then half the country wound up in one.
These past 9 years have been so disturbing.
The whole Republican platform is a complete joke that’s hard to take seriously at this point. The fact that people are actually making an effort to vote for Trump in the first place is simply a testament to the effectiveness of shitty focused right wing media propaganda and the utter gullibility of stupid people.
The bigger news is that only 56,000 Republicans even showed up to vote, out of the ENTIRE STATE! Meaning Trump only got around 26,000 votes….absolutely devastating loss for the GOP as a party, and a punch in the face for Trump. The clickbait titles about a “Historic Win” and “Landslide Victory” just tickle me pink. This was the worst possible outcome for maga, and it made my day.
That it is.
What a cluster bomb.
2020 Iowa 97%
2024 Iowa 51%
He lost half his support
Yikes
Would’ve taken it as a good sign but I can’t help but wonder what percentage of the vote he would gotten if it wasn’t snowy and freezing cold out here.
I don’t have the source, but I read around half of Nikki Haley supporters would vote for Biden over Trump in the general election. If this holds true nationwide, it’s roughly an extra 10% for Biden on top of Democratic voters. Most DeSantis supporters will likely vote for Trump, but many are also likely to just stay home in November.
How is getting 51% in a place where he should be dominant good news? He slipped (percentage-wise) even against his own performance in 2020.
I for one am thrilled they are nominating Trump.
He’s a terrible and weak candidate with 91 pending criminal charges.
Bring it on! He makes me excited to vote for Joe Biden again.
Iowa GOP. The party that supports presidents found liable for sexual assault. True family values. Very respectful of people’s privacy.
Barring some kind of earth shattering event, Independents will NOT vote for Trump en masse, thus likely nomination of Trump as republican candidate is almost a lock for a Biden win. But it is nerve wracking how old Biden is but then again Trump ain’t looking his best these days either.
Let’s stop, reminding them how fucked they’re going to be.
I think Scarborough is reading too much into this. There was no reason for people to go out and vote. The results even if underperforming are scary as shit.
I think this is being overblown some. There are some Republicans who hate Trump but I doubt the majority of them would vote Biden.
For the rest, there’s many who think Haley or DeSantis would be better but again, do you really think they’d vote Biden (or just not vote) if it came down to it?
It’s good news that half of Republicans in Iowa recognize Trump as a multiple felon. Then again it’s sad news that half of Iowans refuse to see what’s in their face.
Every time I see this face I think it’s Matthew Perry but as an accountant
Totally agree with this take. The previous President and current leader of their party could only get 51% of IOWA REPUBLICANS. Think about that. Nov 2024 is going to be so rough for him that he will be claiming another big lie.
He’s right. Trump has dominated the Republican party for 8 years. Shouldn’t he have gotten 80-90% of the Iowa vote? This result tells me a lot of R voters are sick of his shit.
Read it the same way. He’s basically the incumbent and 50% of R’s want somebody else. He is going to go down in flames in Nov
For context, in 2016, Trump got 24.3 percent of the vote.
I like this enthusiasm of everyone here but honestly I’m just going to start letting my guard down so I’m not surprised if he wins in November. I’m sill voting for Biden but I just don’t have the faith that everyone else does
31 comments
“If Barack Obama took four years off and then ran in a Democratic caucus in Iowa, would 50% of Democrats vote against Barack Obama?” said Scarborough on his [show](https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe)Tuesday. “No, no. They wouldn’t.”
Exactly what I’ve been saying, a lot of the media right now is acting like this is a crushing victory for him, but if you really look at the numbers and the situation for what it is, is it?
According to polls he underperformed. He was projected to get around 56-57%, he got 51%.
He’s running for reelection, he’s literally the republican incumbent president, getting only half of the people to vote for you just doesn’t seem that impressive. Iowa’s adult population is roughly 2.2 million, so he got about 2.3% of the state to vote for him. This is also deep evangelical state. Is that a wow?
Everyone knows Trumps supporters are the most fervent of pretty much anyone who’s ever ran before. Quite cultish for a lot of them. So they are way more motivated to get out there and vote than anyone going for any of the other candidates and with all that being said, half of the people still mustered the energy to get out there and vote against Trump.
So yeah, I’m sure he will push it and his followers will push it as an historic win, but if you’re really looking at the numbers and the situation for what it is, it shows a lot of vulnerability, an underperformance, and just a pretty bad outcome overall.
Lowest turn out in decades and he got 48% of the republican vote than in 2020. People just stayed home.
The press is generally playing this as a freaking win. Scarborough is actually right on this one. Its not good news.
Only about 1/7 republicans in iowa voted yesterday….
Trump only got support from about half of that number…
And here’s why THAT’S bad for Biden
What Joe failed to mention is there are 718k registered Republicans in Iowa. Only 100k showed up for the Caucus.
All I want is bad news for the GOP.
With all his bloviating about being so far ahead, Trump only getting 51% is hilariously weak and it’s really pissing him off, and I love it.
Maybe 60% of that 51% is all of Trump’s rabid base.
So there’s a good 20+% up for grabs for another candidate, so if the other candidates would grow some balls and attack him, they would gain support.
Yes I’m reaching a bit with those numbers.
I read that 50% of Haley voters would pick Biden over Trump.
It’s honestly shocking that they aren’t the unified monolith they wanted us to think they were!
A lot of folks wanted off the Trump train and they’re maybe stuck with someone they aren’t that excited about.
I’m not excited for Biden either but Trump turns me out to vote against him!
I used to scratch my head wondering how anyone could wind up in a cult. And then half the country wound up in one.
These past 9 years have been so disturbing.
The whole Republican platform is a complete joke that’s hard to take seriously at this point. The fact that people are actually making an effort to vote for Trump in the first place is simply a testament to the effectiveness of shitty focused right wing media propaganda and the utter gullibility of stupid people.
The bigger news is that only 56,000 Republicans even showed up to vote, out of the ENTIRE STATE! Meaning Trump only got around 26,000 votes….absolutely devastating loss for the GOP as a party, and a punch in the face for Trump. The clickbait titles about a “Historic Win” and “Landslide Victory” just tickle me pink. This was the worst possible outcome for maga, and it made my day.
That it is.
What a cluster bomb.
2020 Iowa 97%
2024 Iowa 51%
He lost half his support
Yikes
Would’ve taken it as a good sign but I can’t help but wonder what percentage of the vote he would gotten if it wasn’t snowy and freezing cold out here.
I don’t have the source, but I read around half of Nikki Haley supporters would vote for Biden over Trump in the general election. If this holds true nationwide, it’s roughly an extra 10% for Biden on top of Democratic voters. Most DeSantis supporters will likely vote for Trump, but many are also likely to just stay home in November.
How is getting 51% in a place where he should be dominant good news? He slipped (percentage-wise) even against his own performance in 2020.
I for one am thrilled they are nominating Trump.
He’s a terrible and weak candidate with 91 pending criminal charges.
Bring it on! He makes me excited to vote for Joe Biden again.
Iowa GOP. The party that supports presidents found liable for sexual assault. True family values. Very respectful of people’s privacy.
Barring some kind of earth shattering event, Independents will NOT vote for Trump en masse, thus likely nomination of Trump as republican candidate is almost a lock for a Biden win. But it is nerve wracking how old Biden is but then again Trump ain’t looking his best these days either.
Let’s stop, reminding them how fucked they’re going to be.
I think Scarborough is reading too much into this. There was no reason for people to go out and vote. The results even if underperforming are scary as shit.
I think this is being overblown some. There are some Republicans who hate Trump but I doubt the majority of them would vote Biden.
For the rest, there’s many who think Haley or DeSantis would be better but again, do you really think they’d vote Biden (or just not vote) if it came down to it?
It’s good news that half of Republicans in Iowa recognize Trump as a multiple felon. Then again it’s sad news that half of Iowans refuse to see what’s in their face.
Every time I see this face I think it’s Matthew Perry but as an accountant
Totally agree with this take. The previous President and current leader of their party could only get 51% of IOWA REPUBLICANS. Think about that. Nov 2024 is going to be so rough for him that he will be claiming another big lie.
He’s right. Trump has dominated the Republican party for 8 years. Shouldn’t he have gotten 80-90% of the Iowa vote? This result tells me a lot of R voters are sick of his shit.
Read it the same way. He’s basically the incumbent and 50% of R’s want somebody else. He is going to go down in flames in Nov
For context, in 2016, Trump got 24.3 percent of the vote.
I like this enthusiasm of everyone here but honestly I’m just going to start letting my guard down so I’m not surprised if he wins in November. I’m sill voting for Biden but I just don’t have the faith that everyone else does