“I think people dismissing the idea that Russia would attack a NATO state are woefully clueless. If Russia wins in Ukraine, and gets in Trump a President willing to abandon NATO, Putin will strike NATO. This isn’t a low-probability event, it’s Russia’s explicit goal in Europe.” Oz Katerji
by themimeofthemollies
30 comments
I agree with Oz Katerji — and a trump president cannot just withdraw from NATO without consent from the House & Senate. A safe guard against his return!
Oz Katerji is worth listening to, even if his wisely prescient words appear at first as impossible prophecy….
Must read from Katerji:
“Ukraine Braces for Political Disaster in 2024”
“Grim possibilities in the United States and European Union have Kyiv on edge.”
https://archive.ph/2023.12.22-201926/https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/19/ukraine-2024-united-states-congress-aid-russia-war/
Further reading:
“What 2023 Taught Us in the Russia-Ukraine War”
“Foreign Policy’s best reads on the state of the conflict and the implications going forward.”
https://archive.ph/2023.12.27-110436/https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/26/russia-ukraine-war-lessons-military-aid-2023/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/26/russia-ukraine-war-lessons-military-aid-2023/
Russia will attack anyone it deems sufficiently weak.
So an attack can easily be prevented by showing a generous set of teeth.
Putin striking NATO would be the best thing to happen to NATO
Under listed circumstances he would not just strike NATO, but conquer significant part of it.
And he won’t stop at ukraine if he gets it.. he’ll have momentum, a combat experienced army and an economy on a war footing that will need to be sustained with more war.
So basically we are talking world war three. Because that’s what a Russian attack on NATO looks like. Russia would still be taking on NATO and all their non NATO allies who would have to realign heavily with NATO nations if trump turns the USA isolationist again (doubtful).
So we are talking a closer Canadian, Australian & NZ realignment with the UK (fuck yeah the empire) probably Japan, South Korea etc forming closer ties with France, UK, Germany etc.
The question then still poses does Russia have the conventional war fighting capability to take on basically the Entente from ww1. Because what’s the point if Europe is a nuclear wasteland, so it would have to be a conventional fight. Do the Russians people and it’s military really have the gall for that type of conflict? Could Putin still stand up when 1-2 million Russians are dead?
The German army in the First World War was damn good, even they couldn’t do it. So can the Russians that we see throwing themselves at Avdiivka for next to no gains be capable? If you ask me I’m pressing X to doubt.
Everyone believes the Baltics would be next, but I believe the test will be slovakistan. If Ukraine falls, we will be the test of NATO. Here 70% of the population are dimwits and would welcome a Russian ocupation anyway. It would all be over in a weekend.
Let the record be very clear: Putin and Ruzzia remain entirely dedicated to annihilating Ukraine as a nation, culture, and language.
Katerji explains:
“Moscow’s goals in Ukraine remain unchanged; the Putin regime still maintains maximalist aims in Ukraine and is in this war for the long haul, with the total subjugation of Kyiv as its goal.”
“Putin made his position very clear during his annual news conference.”
“Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has also been explicit about this, and Europe should take the ongoing threat that a Trump administration poses to Ukraine seriously.”
“There may well be a potential future in which Europe is forced to carry the burden of Ukraine’s war without its North American ally at the helm of the coalition, or even at the head of the collective defense strategy at the heart of European foreign policy.”
https://archive.ph/2023.12.22-201926/https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/19/ukraine-2024-united-states-congress-aid-russia-war/
Medvedev’s latest insane rant is only more proof of ruthless, unrelenting ruzzian genocidal intentions:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/s/2BoxUKoy0L
That’s why every democracy has to acquire nuclear weapons.
Russia doesn’t need to get in a shooting match. NATO has made it pretty clear the ONLY way they are getting involved is if tanks are rolling over the border and it is very clearly a declared war. You know what NATO ignores? Weapons depots being exploded. Poisonings on NATO soil. Passenger planes full of NATO citizens shot down. Missiles and drones landing on NATO lands. Full on disinformation campaigns and electoral interference that result in pro-russian politicians being instilled. Russians bribing and blackmailing their way into Western political circles.
So what is the west doing to combat any of that? Where is the army of neckbeards on our side sowing discord and interfering in their political system, rallying the populace against their government? What actions can we plausibly deny, like they do each and every day? What is the west even doing to defend against that? Russia simply needs to keep doing what they are doing and fight their fights against NATO allies behind computer screens and in the boardrooms. NATO has no answer for that, as long as they hide behind the veil of stepping in ONLY if it’s a physical war-like invasion.
People who keep thinking that russia will never attack NATO with tanks, planes, nukes, whatever are blind and oblivious to what is already been happening for years. They have been “attacking”. Disinformation and political interference on an unprecedented scale, with no Western answer for it. THAT is how russia threatens and attacks NATO.
A Trump presidency would be make or break for Europe. For decades European countries have let defence drift because they thought they’d always be protected by USAF and USN air power. This is why European countries have been grossly underprepared for ground war. Now that major scale conventional war has returned to Europe (something most pundits thought impossible without escalation within a couple of weeks to nuclear war), European countries MUST return to large scale conventional armed forces. We were taught that wars in the future would all be counterinsurgency; counter terrorist or cyber – this has been blown to pieces by the war in Ukraine. But still I don’t sense tremendous urgency in west European democracies. The Baltic countries have been trying to ‘splash cold water on faces’, but the West is like a comatose prize fighter and time could be running out…
It’s crazy how quickly the rhetoric has changed over the past couple years.
trump wins and we have the start of ww3 people is already drawing up the lines what camp they are in,sadly its coming and my country just changed the forced drafting ages so i guess ill see you guys in the trenches before we get blasted by some janky drone with some idiot posting it on reddit.
wasnt really the 2024 i wanted.
Putin is delusional if he thinks he can take on nato within the next 5 years. Like even France and Italy would be enough to Stop Putins Russia as it is currently simply because we have a lot of good fighter jets.
“Explicit Goal” doesn’t mean that they will do this. Never, ever forget that the first and last goal of every russian foreign policy move is keeping the regime in power. Everything must be weighed against that standard – nothing else – no ideology, no words, no promises, no anything else matter. Putinist russia is not a country concerned with any sort of lofty ideas, ideals, goals, or anything remotely of the sort. Stop treating it as if it were.
Russian hasn’t even taken over Ukraine and if they do they will still gorilla warfare drone the fuck out of them. Russian has lost so much fighting man power that nato doesn’t even need USA to repeal an attack with how piss poor their untrained attacks have been. Hell I bet Poland by itself could take out Russian right now if nukes were off the table.
Russia can’t even win the war on heating and electricity in January… they’re not going to attack NATO as the war would literally be over in 3 days. Even without the US, Europe has more than enough military might to plant a flag in Moscow in under 3 days if they wanted to unnecessarily risk some soldiers lives. In practice, they’d make it an air and ballistic missile battle before trying to get boots east of Belarus.
The only real threat Russia poses is the nuclear one — and the US being involved doesn’t negate that, though it does increase the likelihood of intercepting some of the ICBMs.
The US isn’t the only NATO country with Nukes. Do French Nukes become less scary to Russia with Trump in the US presidency?
Even without Trump, my money would be on the US taking some months (maybe even >12) navel gazing and infighting before joining in earnest. Only US forces already deployed in Europe will be engaged until that delay is past.
i wouldnt limit this to just europe either. putin already wants alaska back and you think hes gonna stop there? hes coming for canada also
Zelensky still has a “trump” card to play. He can just serve up Biden and his kid on a silver platter with the whole Burisma crap and Trump will call him smart and then be his best friend.
Trump values loyalty over everything else, he’s not a complex person.
lol why do you guys listen to these batshit crazy people? If Russia wins, they would take eastern Ukraine and that’s it. They’re only going to be able to take Russian speaking territories. Western Ukraine is not Russian speaking, and clearly NATO countries are not Russian speaking either.
And Trump “abandoning” NATO? get a grip….
The French socialist party of the 1930’s (SFIO) was so committed to pacifism until 1935 that its journal didn’t even publish news about Hitler’s rearmament. When Léon Blum decided to take a pro rearmament stance, a third of the militants protested. A third!
A section of the French collaborators were originally pacifists who advocated for friendship with Germany even after the rise of the Nazis and they continued that approach when the Germans were parading weapons in hand through their streets.
If I am talking about this it’s because I think that we see a repeat of that phenomenon with pacifists and fascists finding a strange point of convergence in the absence of preparation against Russia.
I for one will be doing everything I can to help re-elect Joe Biden. I look at this election as a fight for the soul of American democracy. I have every confidence that if elected, Trump will make every effort to become a fascist dictator.
No he won’t. Oz is an idiot
So us in the uk are obviously in NATO, so we would be obligated to assist a membering nation…and we also have a “special relationship” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Relationship
Which means the us would still be obligated to come to our support if we got into a conflict, so unless trump wants to undo more partnerships then they would assist anyway
Congress already approved a bill that prevents a President from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO. It has bi-partisan support and will be signed by Biden
I do see signs that the Republican Party is starting to realize that Trump was a huge mistake to the point that his flags, signs, and bumper stickers are disappearing. I see trucks all the time with evidence of a Trump sticker being removed from the truck. I rarely see a Trump bumper sticker, flag, or sign now. They are even disappearing from the boats. I rarely have to yell “commie traitor” at someone because they no longer show their support of the commie traitor.
Also, I don’t think victory in Ukraine is dependent on America. Ukraine, especially with better European support, can defeat Russia. The nations that border Russia understand the stakes. They know they are next. They are taking things more serious.
America should realize the stakes because we also border Russia, and Russia has already expressed interest in taking Alaska, though I don’t think people are taking the threat serious enough. Most people don’t realize how incredibly stupid Russia really is. Anti-government types *should* understand the concept of a government like Russia being incredibly stupid.
Are you all still pretending the whole collusion thing was real?