What are the odds that extreme weather will lead to a global food shock? The insurance giant Lloyd’s evaluated the risks in a recent study.
by silence7
What are the odds that extreme weather will lead to a global food shock? The insurance giant Lloyd’s evaluated the risks in a recent study.
by silence7
2 comments
> The costs get even more eye-popping for Lloyd’s “severe” case: $5.7 trillion over a five-year period. This case was estimated to have a 1.1% chance probability of occurrence per year, or a 28% chance over 30 years.
And a “global catastrophic risk event” (as described by the UN) has a 9% chance in the next 30 years.
Ask your sceptic friends if they’d act differently if there was a 9% chance of them dying (or at least losing everything they have).
About 100%.
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>Over a 30-year period, those odds equate to about a 50% probability of occurrence — **assuming the risks are not increasing each year, which they are**.