Bidens Reaktion auf den Angriff in Jordanien wird wahrscheinlich kraftvoll sein, aber die USA befürchten, einen größeren Krieg mit dem Iran auszulösen, sagen Beamte | CNN-Politik
by Glum-Promotion8084
Bidens Reaktion auf den Angriff in Jordanien wird wahrscheinlich kraftvoll sein, aber die USA befürchten, einen größeren Krieg mit dem Iran auszulösen, sagen Beamte | CNN-Politik
by Glum-Promotion8084
26 comments
Fighting just the proxies is a losing battle. They will keep getting supplied!
I figure there are 2 big concerns about the size and scope of a US retaliatory strike beyond re-establishing solid deterrence:
1 any range of action causes Iran to rapidly slap together a nuke and test it, potentially changing the game
2 Iran’s proxies go hard in Lebanon against northern Israel, changing the dynamic of the war and likely leading to the US to have to get involved there and creating a multi front shit show.
To some degree, I almost feel like the wheels are in motion such that Iran is gonna wanna have that nuke bad and fast. The only downside for them is if their program is compromised enough that any movement in that direction would be detected and result in a sudden bombing campaign (I’d guess by Israel, but likely with US support be it overt or covert).
For many reasons I hope Im wrong about this.
I’m curious and admittedly slightly fearful for how this will turn out –
Iran is not a nuclear armed state (as far as we know) so I don’t have the same fear about the US and us as NATO (I’m from the UK) directly engaging with Russia. But does the US have intelligence we don’t publicly know?
Would a major war with Iran be a major problem in terms of global instability? The obvious answer is yes, any major war is, but I’m not one of the “OMG guys, this is WW3!” posters. Iran has been at war before as a much much more dangerous proxy war between the Americans and Soviets at the height of global tensions in the 1980s, same with Afghanistan. So I don’t see this as some catastrophic escalation, but will it open doors to showing Russia how prepared we really are for a major war?
The US could literally wipe out half their air force and gta defenses in a very short order. We don’t need to clean em completely out. Just remind them that a full-scale war would be over in weeks, not months, and their only recourse would be an Iraqi style insurgency. And that’s if we bothered to stay.
Sink one of their larger naval vessels. Just one, with a back channel message to cut the shit or there will be more. Iran needs to be told, and they only seem to understand things the hard way. Also- thank you DJT for tanking the nuclear deal- just brilliant.
People are up in here worried about nukes when the Iranians already have a far deadlier tool. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is ~30% of the world’s oil, will immediately cause the mother of all oil shocks (like, $200 a barrel plus) and result in an economic cataclysm. There’s no way around it. The Iranians can lock down the strait for months at a minimum. It would also drastically affect the 2024 election calculus, which Biden and those around him know. This is a very different conflict from Iraq or Afghanistan. The Iranians have a great hand; we can’t simply slap them around.
I feel people are too worried about what a US action against Iran would mean. They look back to the brushfire wars against Iraq and Afghanistan and think it would be the same. The issue the US had was fighting guerrilla insurgents hiding amongst the populous. Any action against Iran would have direct military targets and the US would have no desire to occupy. Take out from ranged nuclear facilities, military manufacturing and the revolutionary guard based from ranged. Then warn them that any further nuclear programs will result in a widened repeat.
There are too many hotspots around the world to go full out against Iran and find out that we are needed in South Korea or as part of a NATO response or somewhere else entirely. Unless Iran makes a full assault against us or our allies limited responses such as bombing their drone factories would be my choice. It would limit them in multiple directions .
B-21 Raider live test over Iran please
The US will wait for the Saudis to guarantee oil market stability through the election cycle and then strike. Iran/Russia know that the biggest weakness the US has on the global scene is the risk of Trump winning the domestic election.
Time for bloviation.
Until they strike Iran directly this will never end. They don’t care about their own civilians, why would they care about strikes on foreign proxies?
The fight needs to be brought to them directly and then they’ll back down.
It’s going to be all for show, they’re waiting until they evacuate, then the US will aggressively bomb the area to make it look like the US did something
Just in time for election season
Iran is looking for an excuse to invade/annex a big portion of Iraq, possibly even make a move in the oil fields in the northern Kurdish region. Which isn’t to say we couldn’t bomb them back to Stone Age, we could. There’ll just be a lot of full spectrum warfare and it will be felt domestically in the States.
Be sure that none of this is happening without the Axis of Evil nations hoping to effect the elections in Trump’s favor.
Tough spot for Biden. Whatever he does will be loudly declared as completely wrong by his opponents.
On balance though, in my opinion, his only choice is a show of force directly against Iran. Anything less and he, and the United States, will be seen as weak.
: The gang goes to war with Iran.
Honestly, it’s damn time to rip Iran a new asshole. Bombing their worthless proxies that they can just resupply endlessly is going to deter them.
Bomb their infrastructure, assets. Short of declaring war.
Why are we worried about starting a war with Iran? What are they going to do that they’re not doing already? I’m not saying we should invade them, but we can absolutely cripple their offensive capabilities from the air.
We have always been at war with Iran. US just has refused to acknowledge that.
The best play is to sink the Iranian ship that has been gathering intelligence for the Houthi missile attacks. Two birds, one stone.
My recommendation would be straight forward. Launch a heavy strike on Iran’s naval bases, air bases, and the ayatollah’s office complex. Send a note with the strike plan of the raid on Libya in 1984 that almost killed Muammar Gaddaffi. Ask if the U.S. should continue or are the strikes going to continue. The issue would be over in a matter of hours.
Speak softly and carry and a big stick; you will go far.
lay the pipe on them at this point. What are they gonna do? Trump bombed soleimani and they didn’t do shit, they posture and back extremist groups, that’s not gonna change, if the US drops a billion in ordinance on them tomorrow they’ll puff up their chest for a bit but might think twice about getting long dicked by the US military. I’m not pro-Trump or pro-Biden, but at some point you just gotta slap someone in the face and bring them back to reality.
Ok, I’ll bite, and accept all the abuse.
You’re already in a war with the alliance of mischievous shitholes in Russia, China, and to an extent, North Korea and India. They chose it, they all have different but related interested and they’ll keep going as long as they’re able to gain something from it.
You don’t need to conquer Iran. But there are upsides to destroying its capacity for spreading death and mischief if it comes to an open, shooting war. Like many people, I wouldn’t mind the political regime of Iran being smashed and humiliated.
But – That’s not the same thing as saying a war with Iran is a good idea. And it might be a huge gift to Comrade Trump, who will of course poo on anything Biden does with “US can’t fight global wars! claptrap.
It’s not a good look for any president to opt for a war in the fourth year of the first term. Well – it’s not good to opt for wars at all. But it’s also not good to ignore the reality that you’re already fighting one, with one hand tied to your balls.
On balance – Iran has earned some punishment, and isn’t going to stop fucking around until they suffer some consequences.
I would be gun shy too if I were president Biden, the last time the DoD floated a retaliatory strike by his desk he was end up drone striking nothing but small children and innocent aid workers.
Again and again we hear this sort of ‘US does not want to escalate’, ‘US does not want to trigger a wider conflict’ sort of rhetoric and it is just so incredibly revealing of how weak minded the administration is and how wedded to this idea of appeasement they are.
The US has a military budget 60 times the size of Iran. With a fraction of its power and resources it would be fully capable of utterly devastating their military, destroying every plane in their airforce before it got off the ground and sinking every ship in its navy.. It could start bombing iran at a time of its choosing and stop bombing iran at a time of its choosing. If the matter ‘escalated’ with virtually zero risk it could destroy iran’s economic infrastructure, kill its leaders turn the lights off in iran and cause a collapse of its society without putting boots on the ground.
And literally the only response iran has in its playbook is what it is doing now- weak, proxy based attacks avoiding direct confrontation.
So that being the case, do you think Iran’s leaders want to escalate or spiral out of control? Do you think there is any scenario, at all, in which the US attacks them and their response is ‘ok we want a wider conflict?’
The message which should be being sent to them is the US is absolutely prepared to escalate the situation and will escalate the situation further, in unpredictable ways if they choose to attack american soldiers.
The problem with the current, incredibly cowardly approach is it actually provokes further conflict because it suggests to Iran and everyone else watching they can keep pushing the envelope and the US will keep backing off and moderating its response.