Democrats projected to win back George Santos seat in hotly contested election [House of Representatives breaking news, more in comments]

5 comments

1. George Santos (R) was removed from Congress a few months ago for being a complete and utter conman, in so many words. [https://www.cbsnews.com/news/george-santos-charges-allegations/](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/george-santos-charges-allegations/)

   The special (snap) election to replace him in New York’s Third District ended voting today (Tuesday/13) and all polls were pointing to a tight race. While votes are still being counted, those which have been reported so far should (if statistics hold) see the Democrat candidate Tom Suozzi. [https://www.npr.org/2024/02/13/1230955410/border-security-dominates-in-new-york-special-election-to-replace-rep-santos](https://www.npr.org/2024/02/13/1230955410/border-security-dominates-in-new-york-special-election-to-replace-rep-santos)

   ​

   Suozzi was previously in Congress representing this area and left to pursue state/local politics a few years ago, but decided to try and return to Congress when NY-3 came up for grabs without an incumbent due to Santos being expelled.

   This should bring the balance of seats in the House to 214-219. Two more races for members who resigned are coming in March, though those are expected to remain in Republican hands, at least for now. McCarthy (south central California) and Bill Johnson (Ohio). Note that Bill Johnson is not Mike Johnson, despite the shared name.

   This is also very important for the general election in November, as this is within a few months and is a good way to get a sense of how voters are feeling in hotly contested districts, the suggestion here being that the dozen or so seats that were even hotter than this one are likely to have momentum against Trump if nothing else.

   The other implication worth taking away is this: NY-3 was redrawn during redistricting between the 2020 and 2022 election cycles and was drawn in a way that was expected to be more favorable to Republicans, and Santos’ win seemed to support that observation. A democrat winning in a district drawn that should have favored the competitor is not something to be ignored.

   Democrats also led heavily in both donations and volunteer/social support in organizing events, outreach, and voter turnout efforts which is a useful though not determinative consideration to look at going into an election; and Democrats are “leading” by similar margins in most of the other hotly contested districts around the country.

   I would say continue to hold your breath, but at the moment indicators seem to be that Dems are likely to “flip” at least a handful of seats and likely regain at least a slim majority in the House which would give a route to remove Johnson as speaker and put the clown caucus back to an obstructionist “noise making” position rather than a platform from which they can single-handedly gum everything up.

2. More on this subject from other reputable sources:

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   – PBS (A-): [Democrat Tom Suozzi wins New York race, flipping George Santos' former seat in Congress](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrat-tom-suozzi-wins-new-york-race-flipping-george-santos-former-seat-in-congress)
   – Globe and Mail (B+): [Democrat Suozzi wins U.S. House election in New York, eroding Republican majority](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-democrat-suozzi-wins-us-house-election-in-new-york-eroding-republican/)
   – Free Malaysia Today (C-): [Democrat Suozzi wins US House election in New York](https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/world/2024/02/14/democrat-suozzi-wins-us-house-election-in-new-york/)
   – Guardian (C+): [Long Island votes on replacement for disgraced Republican George Santos](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/13/vote-replace-george-santos-tom-suozzi-mazi-pilip)

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3. One step closer to repealing this embarrassing Republican shitshow in the House.

4. If dems win this , And the 3 retiring republicans will vote to bring the Ukraine bill to the floor .
   It will pass . 217 – 216

5. Speaker Johnson is threatening any Republicans who sign the discharge petition with removal from their committees.

   Calling for a vote of no confidence of the speaker, then getting a new speaker, then voting on the aid package might be the faster solution. But needs 4 Republicans and *all* the Dems (including some who oppose Israel’s battle tactics in Gaza, who are iffy on support more weapons platforms for Israel).

   IMHO removing Johnson will have to happen, and also shifting more of the Israel defense aid to Gaza rebuilding (which is okay – give those Israel-bound shells and defense platforms to Ukraine instead).