The forecasts were expectations management, so they could claim this as a win.
What do people expect?
Forecast is forecast?
At the end, can people see the future?
The forecasts were predicting 4.1% and it came out at 4.0%.
That doesn’t seem like enough of a miss to put “forecasts wrong” in the headline. Especially since the figure is rounded to the nearest 0.1%.
4% you say? Alright you cheeky monkeys, what else did you take out of the formula? Found a yoghurt for £4.50 the other day – you’re just mocking us straight up.
Heard an interesting thought the other day:
“Medicine in part causing the pain”
Concern that rising wages will drive inflation – part of the reason people are asking for wage rises is that taxes have increased (through fiscal drag) and mortgage (and corollary, rent costs) have increased.
I not totally convinced, but what was an interesting hypothesis!
Yeah, now take a look at CPIH…. This is the one that matters far more ! CPIH was in fact 4.2% still unchanged since October last year. The 2 main factors that have kept going up are rent & owner occupiers’ housing costs.
And lets not forget, regardless of what the Gov / media will tell you, your energy bills are more than last year as we didnt get the energy support scheme this year. And thats £400 less in your pocket to help with the costs of energy….
There’s no good spin on this data, it’s another month where they will try to make it look like a win. Housing costs is our achilles heel in the UK, and it doesnt seem like prices are going to come down to affordable levels anytime soon.
I’m one of many that are still due to remortgage this year, so I have yet to feel the pain of paying another 2% on my mortgage rate. That’s also after my car insurance has just gone up 55%…. so yeah another year where im worse off.
6 comments
The forecasts were expectations management, so they could claim this as a win.
What do people expect?
Forecast is forecast?
At the end, can people see the future?
The forecasts were predicting 4.1% and it came out at 4.0%.
That doesn’t seem like enough of a miss to put “forecasts wrong” in the headline. Especially since the figure is rounded to the nearest 0.1%.
4% you say? Alright you cheeky monkeys, what else did you take out of the formula? Found a yoghurt for £4.50 the other day – you’re just mocking us straight up.
Heard an interesting thought the other day:
“Medicine in part causing the pain”
Concern that rising wages will drive inflation – part of the reason people are asking for wage rises is that taxes have increased (through fiscal drag) and mortgage (and corollary, rent costs) have increased.
I not totally convinced, but what was an interesting hypothesis!
Yeah, now take a look at CPIH…. This is the one that matters far more ! CPIH was in fact 4.2% still unchanged since October last year. The 2 main factors that have kept going up are rent & owner occupiers’ housing costs.
And lets not forget, regardless of what the Gov / media will tell you, your energy bills are more than last year as we didnt get the energy support scheme this year. And thats £400 less in your pocket to help with the costs of energy….
There’s no good spin on this data, it’s another month where they will try to make it look like a win. Housing costs is our achilles heel in the UK, and it doesnt seem like prices are going to come down to affordable levels anytime soon.
I’m one of many that are still due to remortgage this year, so I have yet to feel the pain of paying another 2% on my mortgage rate. That’s also after my car insurance has just gone up 55%…. so yeah another year where im worse off.