Poll: Tories to be wiped out in Scotland at next General Election. The SNP would also once again emerge as the largest party north of the Border, securing a majority of 40 seats, with Labour returning 13 and the LibDems four.
by bottish
Poll: Tories to be wiped out in Scotland at next General Election. The SNP would also once again emerge as the largest party north of the Border, securing a majority of 40 seats, with Labour returning 13 and the LibDems four.
by bottish
19 comments
MRP poll, not sure what size the subsample in Scotland is.
Also, I’m guessing/assuming this is a ‘uniform swing’ style prediction?
Archive version: https://archive.is/vEKZs
This is the Mirror poll referenced:
* [Bombshell mega-poll predicts Tories will lose three-quarters of seats – full results and map](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/bombshell-mega-poll-predicts-tories-32121361)
With apologies to u/ChargeDirect9815, u/Deez-Nutz0 and u/Glesganed, who replied in that thread, I’ve zapped my [near duplicate post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Scotland/comments/1aqt25i/daily_record_tories_face_wipeout_in_scotland_at/) that discussed the Record’s version of this story.
The Record’s text was:
>The Conservatives face a wipeout in Scotland at the next general election, a bombshell poll has predicted.
>It would see the SNP once again emerge as the largest party north of the Border with 40 MPs, compared to 13 for Scottish Labour and four for the Lib Dems.
>But Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are on course for a crushing defeat across the UK which could see them lose three-quarter of their seats – and hand Keir Starmer the keys to Downing Street with a thumping majority.
>It would mean a disaster for the Tories in Scotland with the party returning no MPs for the first time since 1997.
>The Daily Mirror poll, carried out by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus, saw 18,000 voters surveyed across the UK over the last three weeks to give a detailed projection of how all 647 constituencies will play out.
>It used the MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) method – that successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 elections – to predict the outcome of individual seats.
>
>
>The survey suggests Labour could gain seats from the SNP across Greater Glasgow as well as claiming East Lothian, Midlothian, Cowdenbeath and Na h-Eileanan an Iar.
>But the SNP could also make gains at the expense of the Conservatives – with Humza Yousaf’s party on course to win previous Tory heartlands including Moray West, Dumfries and Galloway, Berwickshire, and Aberdeenshire West.
>
>Senior Nationalists will also likely be relieved that a second survey of Scottish voting intentions in the space of a week has found them winning 40 seats.
>Such a result would mean the SNP holding off Labour in key central belt battlegrounds like Inverclyde, Livingston and Dunfermline – as well as preventing a wipeout in Glasgow by holding the city’s South and West constituencies.
>The Lib Dems are projected to win Edinburgh West, North East Fife, Mid Dunbartonshire and Orkney and Shetland.
>But the potential scale of Labour’s victory across the UK will send shivers down the spines of Conservative members tonight.
>Keir Stamer is heading for a Labour landslide with an unprecedented majority of 254 seats. This would be an even bigger victory than Tony Blair’s historic win in 1997.
>According to the poll, Labour has 42 per cent support giving it a 20 point lead over the Conservatives on 22 per cent.
>Voters said they believed health, the economy and immigration were the most important issues facing the country. Nationalising utility companies and building more homes were among most popular potential election policies.
>The results suggest Labour is set to pick up 452 seats. The Tories would lose 285 of the 265 seats they got in 2019, leaving them with just 80. Ministers set to be ousted include Claire Coutinho, Victoria Pentis, John Glen, Johnny Mercer and Simon Hart.
>Current Cabinet ministers who are likely to keep their seats – and might contest the next Conservative leadership contest – are James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat, Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt.
>According to the poll, the Lib Dems are on course for a comeback that would see them go back up to 53 seats – meaning they overtake the SNP as the third largest party in the House of Commons.
>Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “The public seem even more disenchanted with the Conservatives under Rishi Sunak than they were with John Major in 1997.
>”A Labour landslide looks increasingly likely, and Labour voters want nationalisation, increased public spending and higher taxes. The next election could have a seismic impact on British politics as the recent Conservative era crashes to a close.”
Another opportunity to bash Tories? Good. Cunts.
It’d be bittersweet if the SNP were rewarded for doing many of the same things the Tories have in power.
Douglas ross – I’d imagine even his friends think him a prick.
What could go wrong
In new developments, one party state remains a one party state
Is it more important for the Scots to have the SNP at Holyrood with a Tory minority at Westminster or Labour at Westminster and a labour led coalition in hollyrood?
But, but, but, the Times keeps giving us advice on how best to succeed by sacking our own leaders!
🤔
While I hope Labour get a majority in Scotland, I just don’t expect it.
I think thats probably a little optimistic for the SNP but i’d take it. Fucking the tories out the country is the important bit though. Cunts
Findoutnow are, of course, the most pro-SNP and -Indy pollster – more so than Ipsos Mori.
Good.
I just want dross to fuck off I can’t wait to see his stupid fat face try explain away losing his seat
Actually a decent result for SNP if it holds.
Great protest vote. Crap source.
Is Scotland really that Socialist that most people would want to see a socialist government in place.
Must be the only country in the Western world that doesn’t have a strong Conservative element to it.
Has anyone on here ever been polled?