Turns out that recent economic history shows that there’s direct correlation between the number of articles promising a soft landing and a severe economic downturn.
by yogthos
Turns out that recent economic history shows that there’s direct correlation between the number of articles promising a soft landing and a severe economic downturn.
by yogthos
5 comments
This is from last October and what happened instead of what they say in the article is jobs continued to grow while inflation moderated and wages rose.
I believe it. Just look at the volume of “The economy is great. Why are people pessimistic?” articles. This is the first time in a long time where a lot of people I know personally have been laid off in 2024.
and they have been screaming that there will be a recession since Covid 19 and we are doing great.
When mafco was here we had so much more balance. Will someone start posting a bit of centrist content or do I have to do it? Maybe mafco went a bit overboard but he had some solid hits.
The measure here is “number of articles mentioning the term soft landing.” The articles aren’t weighted for whether they agree with the soft landing thesis or not.
So OF COURSE mentions of “soft landings” are going to be higher before a recession. It’s like saying the employment rate peaks before a recession. Or that stocks always hit their highs before crash.
This post would also count as a “soft landing” mention, which would add to the total number of mentions, but it clearly doesn’t mean that you *think* there’s a soft landing etc.
Mentions of “recession” also went up recently and we still haven’t had one.
I’m not saying that sentiment doesn’t matter at all (people can talk themselves into a recession because confidence impacts investment/hiring plans etc.) but don’t attribute correlation to causation here. The media is *reflecting* the conversation here, in addition to helping shape it.