Sinn Féin’s risky move has paid off as Michelle O’Neill’s popularity at an all-time high

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/sinn-feins-risky-move-has-paid-off-as-michelle-oneills-popularity-at-an-all-time-high/a1482850666.html

First Minister most popular of our party leaders by far as the easy-going ‘people person’ strikes a chord with voters

Two weeks after Stormont’s restoration with Michelle O’Neill as First Minister, Sinn Féin will be delighted by our poll.

It shows her popularity at an all-time high. It is little wonder she has appeared so relaxed.
She has settled into the post with an easy confidence. The trial run in the Deputy First Minister role since the passing of Martin McGuinness has clearly helped.

She is a people person, comfortable in all kinds of situations and therefore tailor-made for such a public-facing role.
The “First Minister for all” slogan will never convince the most hardline of unionists, but her attendance at a PSNI graduation ceremony, followed by a visit to the Shankill Women’s Centre, have been examples of positive early outreach.

This is building on a previous jump in support following attendance at both the Queen’s funeral and King Charles’s coronation.

It was a risky move for the party and could have alienated the grassroots, but it’s a decision that has paid off.

The poll results show Sinn Féin as the largest party by some distance on 31% — well ahead of the DUP on 24% ( down 4%).

This comes on the back of less favourable polling in the Republic, where a survey for the Irish Times showed the party’s support has fallen by six points to 28% since September.

Sinn Féin has dropped in the last five opinion polls from a high of 36% in 2022.

So, why this game of two halves?

Well, the Republic has different political priorities, housing and immigration being high on the agenda.

We have not seen the same mobilisation of mainly right-wing anti-immigration groups on this side of the border.

Despite Sinn Féin not being in government in Leinster House, or responsible for current immigration policies, the party has been the focus of chanting at some of the protests.

Anger at the housing crisis, access to healthcare, GP appointments, the benefits system and what many see as an unfair distribution of the country’s recently acquired wealth are all issues seized on by the anti-immigration lobby.

One senior party member in the South said Sinn Féin need to accept these are realities, and in some communities there are genuine concerns as the population grows quicker than the infrastructure.

They can’t just be dismissed as only the views of the far-right.

The party know they need to show themselves to be different from what went before.

The shambolic handling of immigration by the Tories in the UK is a template of “what not to do”, they added.

There is also a greater number of swing voters in the Republic, people not loyal to a party or ideology, but will go with who they think will best benefit them.
Here, the party’s support is much more consistent.

They have a more solid grassroots base that is known for coming out to vote.
But, interestingly, the LucidTalk poll shows support is not just coming from Sinn Féin’s working class origins.

Of all those surveyed, 34% who identify as middle class said they would give Sinn Féin a first preference vote as compared to 27% who are working class.

While some of these voters are people who have moved, possibly from the SDLP, it also reflects a growing nationalist middle class. They are first generation professionals who benefited from the Catholic education system and have moved to more affluent areas, taking their political beliefs with them.
The party, perhaps helped by their all-female leadership team, are also popular with female voters, with 32% of women polled saying they would vote for Sinn Féin.
The DUP, by contrast, is a more male demographic. Just 18% of women polled said they would give the party a first preference vote, and their votes coming from the 55-64 age ranges.

This makes Jeffrey Donaldson’s decision to put a younger woman into the Deputy First Minister’s job look strategic. The party need to examine ways to future-proof their vote.
The four-point drop is a sign that not all were in favour of a Stormont return. The DUP leader will seek to get some political successes under his belt before the next election if he wants to hold ground.

Meanwhile, Ms O’Neill is riding high in the polls at 54%, the most popular leader by a distance. Alliance’s Naomi Long is on 38%, and Mr Donaldson close behind her on 36%.
Among her busy diary commitments, she appeared on RTE’s Late Late Show last night, Ireland’s most watched television programme.

After all, at a time when support in the South seems to be waning a little, it makes sense for Sinn Féin to put their best asset to work in winning over those more fickle voters.

by Ah_here_like