And there’s going to be a years long insurgency In whatever territory the Russians conquer… Putin has lost Ukrainian people permanently, and they’re willing to fight for what he’s trying to take from them
There are millions upon millions of guns there, and almost every male in the country has had some military experience
Trainloads of body bags going back to Moscow- How much of this will the Russian people in endure, slaughtering their brother Slavs so Putin can keep his stolen billions & young mistresses (or little boys, depending who you ask)
I don’t get it. How do I move troops around?
They’re in Ukraine? Just like that?
Thanks for the link. I didn’t have any idea such tracker exist!
Am I the only one who thinks the risk of invasion is tiny?
-100,000 troops is only enough for a limited excursion. No way they could overwhelm battled tested and well armed Ukrainian forces.
-Ukraine forces are entrenched and have dug anti tank trenches
-Middle of winter
If this was May or June it would be far more likely but in the middle of winter against an already entrenched enemy with a small force? They would need a far higher build up to seize the East of the country. If it was 500,000 I’d be worried.
Putin would be completely insane to launch an attack.
To me it’s seems more likely he is trying to get recognition of fait accompli in Crimea and some other concessions from the Americans.
Russia should be too wise to start a Vietnam/Afghanistan type thing here. They are rattling loudly, but I doubt they will go for it. EU/NATO would send so much materiel and money, possibly even people, as to make this nowhere near worth it. Maybe Turkey too. Maybe Japan too. Maybe China tries to clean its name by opposing the Big Bad Russians too.
Its just a losing move from Moscow, and I doubt they’d do it.
Ukraine will resist!
This is a map of their peacetime structure and does not reflect the current situation.
A very strong area of denial i must say in Syria, Kalingrad and that Arctic island
How do i select all?
Note that this map is misleading in a way that it shows mostly base locations of the primary units. It doesn’t show where they have been deployed, especially if the deployment was not official. For example, 136th Guards Motorized Brigade is listed as located in Buynaksk, Dagestan, which is its home base. However as of yet this brigade is deployed at Rossosh-Kantemyrovka, within 50 km from Ukrainian border. This is the story for many dozens of units that form a 200,000+ combat personnel of the invasion armies.
Thus is just a staple media coverage of any military activity, let alone clandestine mobilization/deployment of the Russian Army. Most people writing articles/analysis/maps have little actual understanding how military works on above platoon level. Lazy journalism also means that ~~75%~~ 100% of the information will be inaccurate and outdated, especially when things change *daily*. Various OSINT communities were able to track many units through the time, even though there are only scraps of the scraps of information compared to 2014-2020. The Russians are really working hard to conceal the deployment and crack down on the leaks, and only info comes from civilian and open sources, as well as satellite data.
Right now it is extremely hard to estimate actual numbers and strength of the deployed Russian operational groups. Based on additional deployment for the last month and a half, including recent redeployments of the troops from the Far East (basically all compared capable troops of the Russian 5th, 29th, 35th and 36th armies) most of my peers involved in tracking estimate around 200-220,000, though there is not much information available about level of mobilization for the involved units, I.e how many units struggle with getting their reservists mobilized.
Finally all of this doesn’t include second echelon and rear supply troops, as well as any aviation, paramilitary (I.e Donbas and armed cossack militias), special purpose assets, etc. There is about 350,000 men total in the Russian ground troops. 200,000-220,000 is deployed. Go figure how serious is this.
[deleted]
they feel surrounded by NATO because they’re very big
Interesting I always thought Russian north western bases were more on the Asian continent side so to speak. Makes sense though as there are deeper ravines where subs can hide.
Also interesting how empty their Far East is. Everything seems clustered around the west but that makes sense too as Moscow and the pesky european plain i there.
All things aside, it is a very interesting map. Would be nice to have similar maps about other countries militaries.
Isn’t this kind of one sided..? I want to see both sides and the build up.
21 comments
source: https://www.gfsis.org/
Oooo the new Russian Empire…
“Nothing to see, just passing thru”
Fun for the whole family.
Ukrainians ARE NOT going to lay down for this
And there’s going to be a years long insurgency In whatever territory the Russians conquer… Putin has lost Ukrainian people permanently, and they’re willing to fight for what he’s trying to take from them
There are millions upon millions of guns there, and almost every male in the country has had some military experience
Trainloads of body bags going back to Moscow- How much of this will the Russian people in endure, slaughtering their brother Slavs so Putin can keep his stolen billions & young mistresses (or little boys, depending who you ask)
I don’t get it. How do I move troops around?
They’re in Ukraine? Just like that?
Thanks for the link. I didn’t have any idea such tracker exist!
Am I the only one who thinks the risk of invasion is tiny?
-100,000 troops is only enough for a limited excursion. No way they could overwhelm battled tested and well armed Ukrainian forces.
-Ukraine forces are entrenched and have dug anti tank trenches
-Middle of winter
If this was May or June it would be far more likely but in the middle of winter against an already entrenched enemy with a small force? They would need a far higher build up to seize the East of the country. If it was 500,000 I’d be worried.
Putin would be completely insane to launch an attack.
To me it’s seems more likely he is trying to get recognition of fait accompli in Crimea and some other concessions from the Americans.
Russia should be too wise to start a Vietnam/Afghanistan type thing here. They are rattling loudly, but I doubt they will go for it. EU/NATO would send so much materiel and money, possibly even people, as to make this nowhere near worth it. Maybe Turkey too. Maybe Japan too. Maybe China tries to clean its name by opposing the Big Bad Russians too.
Its just a losing move from Moscow, and I doubt they’d do it.
Ukraine will resist!
This is a map of their peacetime structure and does not reflect the current situation.
A very strong area of denial i must say in Syria, Kalingrad and that Arctic island
How do i select all?
Note that this map is misleading in a way that it shows mostly base locations of the primary units. It doesn’t show where they have been deployed, especially if the deployment was not official. For example, 136th Guards Motorized Brigade is listed as located in Buynaksk, Dagestan, which is its home base. However as of yet this brigade is deployed at Rossosh-Kantemyrovka, within 50 km from Ukrainian border. This is the story for many dozens of units that form a 200,000+ combat personnel of the invasion armies.
Thus is just a staple media coverage of any military activity, let alone clandestine mobilization/deployment of the Russian Army. Most people writing articles/analysis/maps have little actual understanding how military works on above platoon level. Lazy journalism also means that ~~75%~~ 100% of the information will be inaccurate and outdated, especially when things change *daily*. Various OSINT communities were able to track many units through the time, even though there are only scraps of the scraps of information compared to 2014-2020. The Russians are really working hard to conceal the deployment and crack down on the leaks, and only info comes from civilian and open sources, as well as satellite data.
Right now it is extremely hard to estimate actual numbers and strength of the deployed Russian operational groups. Based on additional deployment for the last month and a half, including recent redeployments of the troops from the Far East (basically all compared capable troops of the Russian 5th, 29th, 35th and 36th armies) most of my peers involved in tracking estimate around 200-220,000, though there is not much information available about level of mobilization for the involved units, I.e how many units struggle with getting their reservists mobilized.
Finally all of this doesn’t include second echelon and rear supply troops, as well as any aviation, paramilitary (I.e Donbas and armed cossack militias), special purpose assets, etc. There is about 350,000 men total in the Russian ground troops. 200,000-220,000 is deployed. Go figure how serious is this.
[deleted]
they feel surrounded by NATO because they’re very big
Interesting I always thought Russian north western bases were more on the Asian continent side so to speak. Makes sense though as there are deeper ravines where subs can hide.
Also interesting how empty their Far East is. Everything seems clustered around the west but that makes sense too as Moscow and the pesky european plain i there.
All things aside, it is a very interesting map. Would be nice to have similar maps about other countries militaries.
Isn’t this kind of one sided..? I want to see both sides and the build up.
Okay now do one for U.S. military bases.