Bei Foreign Policy befassen wir uns mit der nationalen Sicherheit. Fragen Sie uns etwas über zwei Jahre Krieg in der Ukraine.

22 comments

1. Is Russia digging in and stalling for the 2024 US election hoping for an outcome for them?

2. What are the ground realities of war casualties on both sides. Are the numbers being reported accurate or tactics of information warfare.

3. do you believe that the EU (and other allies of Ukraine) will pick up the slack for the US weapons that are/will no longer be flowing into Ukraine?

   do you believe Ukraine has sufficient trained manpower to withstand the likely continuation of the war?

4. Hi Jack and Amy! Is there any public databases  you could recommend that cover the war? For example tracking how much export and import is done from and to Russia, from and to EU and so on?

5. How are Ukrainian children doing? How is their mental health, their education?

6. Do the average citizens think alike Zelensky that losing to Putin is alike death, or are people generally fed up with the war and ready for peace talks? I’m curious what’s the toll of war on average Ukrainians.

7. Does Ukraine have enough soldiers to continue fighting against Russia, or will they need to increase their conscription? How will this impact the political situation in Ukraine after the well-known feud between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi around increased conscription?

8. Hi Jack and Amy,

   I would like to know your take on the future of UAV strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure. In the case of the Volgograd Refinery strike earlier in the month, it looks like they took out the main fractionating tower for the whole refinery, and probably did something like $200mm in damages just in replacement costs alone. Also, that refinery had a throughput capacity of something like 275k barrels per day, meaning those same barrels have to now be refined elsewhere.

   If military aid is not forthcoming from the western states, such as the US, do you anticipate these strikes to continue? And, if so, how long before you see these strikes start to move pricing for oil and petroleum products in global markets?

   Complicated and very specific question I know, but I think a very important one when one considers the net effects of such strikes.

9. I would like to ask – given current political/economic realities in Russia – is Putin more likely to maintain current tempo after the Russian “election” or is an escalation, such as a second wave of mass mobilization for example, more likely?

   Additionally, many people say that Putin is waiting for the US elections to decide on his long term strategy for the war in Ukraine – do you agree, and if so what are we likely to see if things don’t go his way and Pro UA folks get reelected?

10. OSINT accounts have been around for a while, but this war seems to have brought them to public attention and prominence in a way they haven’t been before. How do you feel that the incredible work of folks like Oryx/Jakub Janovsky (equipment losses), WarSpotting (equipment losses), DeepState (mapping), Andrew Perpetua (mapping), Covert Cabal (hand counting remaining equipment in Russian storage), numerous geolocators (the talents of those folks seriously scare me), and countless other OSINT people/accounts have impacted the public perception of this war? Or your own reporting? Or even the military actions of either side (I’m certain some public OSINT findings have directly led to Ukrainian strikes)?

    How do you see OSINT impacting wars going forward? Will it force governments to be more honest (or at least present an alternative to the official narrative)? Or will it cause governments to be even more secretive, to prevent any crumbs of information from getting out?

    Geolocators seem to be able to identify any location in the world in 20 minutes from the arrangement of 3 twigs and the color of the dirt. Commercially available satellite imagery covers formerly secret military bases with a frequency and resolution that would make WWII and Vietnam era planners drool with envy, and that only the government had access to 30 years ago. Soldiers post on Twitter, Telegram, and TikTok minutes after a strike on their base, giving almost instant battle damage assessments to the enemy for free. How do you think these and other factors will influence things like tactical and strategic planning and OPSEC?

11. Hi Jack and Amy. Can you recommend any public databases that track imports and exports to and from Russia, EU, USA, China, and so on? 

    What is your go to sources for such information?

12. How connected is what is going on in Gaza to what is going on in Ukraine? Or, in other words, does Putin have a hand in all of this?

13. Realistically, what scenario do you see in which Russia suffers a comprehensive and crushing defeat without resorting to major escalation even beyond the borders of Ukraine, given that a defeat would likely mean the end of Putin’s regime and Putin believes he holds the upper hand in the balance of resolve over Ukraine?

    How do you see this in relation to earlier articles in [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/15/putin-right-ukraine-war/) where Stephen Walt wrote about the risks for the world at large:

    > There is one way in which this situation may be changing, however, and it is not a comforting thought. The more aid, weaponry, intelligence, and diplomatic support that the United States and NATO provide to Ukraine, the more their reputations become tied to the outcome.

    To what extent has this scenario that he cautioned about a year ago already occurred in your view, and what does this mean for global escalation risk?

14. Do you think the Russians could keep their momentum up after Avdiivka or are there any signs that the attacks could slow down because of mounting casualties/losses of equipment? Ukraine isn’t in a great position right now so any glimmer of hope would be good.

15. Is there a clear-ish idea of the war’s trajectory depending on whether or not US aid comes through? If it does not, is it really “over” or does Europe have enough resources to sustain Ukrainian efforts?

16. As of now, are things getting better or worse for Ukraine?

    Same question for Putin.

17. How is Foreign Policy funded for the most part with magazines dead? How does a niche subject with a tiny audience like that get subsidized without a deep pockets sugar daddy?

18. This war seems custom-designed to produce the maximum amount of trauma and PTSD possible. The trench warfare and human wave attacks of WWI, the atrocities and massacres of WWII, the fact that neither side is really rotating troops off the line, and the constant threat of drones that seem to have a personal vendetta against you specifically and attack you again and again until they hit.

    Given that, how are Ukraine and Russia planning to handle returning soldiers? Are they developing the resources necessary to care for and treat traumatized soldiers? Do they have plans on how to reintegrate them into society? How do you think that is going to turn out?

19. I would like to question Ukraine on the naval front?
    How were they able to accomplish the naval sinking of ships? Is it because of Russian navy incompetence or is it because of Ukrainian strategies?
    And how good is the current Ukrainian navy?

20. How do you think this war will change western tactics and doctrine going forward? Do western militaries think this war is an anomaly and continue to believe that they will always have air superiority, with all the benefits that provides? Or is there some recognition that the west might have to fight on a more even footing? Is the west realizing that they need mass (quantity) as well as precision (quality), or are they planning to double-down on “wonder weapons”? Are new strategies and tactics for dealing with dense minefields and extensive trench lines being developed, or is the western strategy basically to avoid letting a war get to that point in the first place?

    Drones have become absolutely critical in the war. Do you see the west investing in cheap, mass produced, consumer FPV drones as precision weapons, or will they stick with more expensive, boutique solutions like Switchblade? It seems like FPV drones give you about 80% of the capability for 20% of the cost, but military procurement seems to favor more specialized and expensive solutions.

21. What single incident has most surprised you during this war (e.g. the decision to invade in the first place, sinking of the Moskva, a western country’s decision to send or not send a particular type of weapon, etc.)?

    Are there any incidents or events where there is an accepted public narrative about what happened, but you feel there is “more to the story” (e.g. secret agreements, covert operations, involvement from unexpected parties, etc. The NordStream sabotage perhaps?)?

    Are there any incidents or events where we know an event happened but really don’t know all the details, or where you want more details (e.g. the helicopter resupply runs to Mariupol, or how the Ukrainians attacked Saky Airbase in August 2022)?

22. How does the average Ukrainian citizen feel about GOP members of the United States House of Representatives delaying much needed military aid?