Most of PM’s 2019 voters have turned on him, says leading analyst
–
Boris Johnson is unlikely to recover fully from the Downing Street party scandal, a polling expert has predicted as ministers insist that he has got the “big calls” right.
Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, claimed that the prime minister was safe in his job despite dozens of Conservative MPs submitting letters of no confidence. Tim Loughton, one of six to call publicly for his resignation, said that a planned clearout of Johnson’s No 10 team would make little difference.
Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and one of the country’s leading pollsters, said that other backbenchers “have to ask themselves whether or not the prime minister is likely to recover from a situation where around a half of the people who voted for him thinks he should go”.
Curtice told Times Radio it was remarkable that a majority of people who voted Tory in 2019 now disapproved of the prime minister’s performance, saying this was a consistent picture across the polls.
Conservative support has dropped ten points in ten weeks, putting the party well behind Labour. Curtice said that their polling record after previous scandals, including earlier revelations of parties, the [Owen Paterson sleaze row](https://archive.is/cbZJh) and a lockdown-breaking [trip to Barnard Castle by Dominic Cummings](https://archive.is/v1Xn6), suggested that the Tories would struggle to make up lost ground.
“Some of the anger will dissipate, some of the Conservative support will return. But on current form so far that might get the Tories back up to 34 per cent. It’s not going to get them back to the 40 per cent that they were at before this started,” he said.
Johnson is expected to ban alcohol in No 10 after reports of staff drinking until 3am, sleeping off hangovers on sofas in the office, and even clubbing together to buy their own wine cooler for the press office.
Zahawi, a potential candidate to succeed Johnson, defended the prime minister. He told Times Radio: “If you think again about the big calls, whether it’s Brexit, the vaccine programme, which the prime minister very much focused on and I led the deployment, and of course the call on Omicron pre-Christmas . . . on the big decisions, he’s made the right call.”
Asked three times on the BBC whether the prime minister was safe in his job, Zahawi said; “Yes, he is, because he’s human and we make mistakes.”
*The Times* disclosed last week that Johnson felt frustrated that staff had put him in a position where his premiership was at risk. He told Tories last week that he was effectively taking a “hit” for the team.
Conservative Party sources claimed he said: “Sometimes we take the credit for things we don’t deserve and this time we’re taking hits for something we don’t deserve.”
Cabinet ministers are pressing him to sack Dan Rosenfield, his chief of staff, and there are suggestions that the communications team [will face a clearout](https://archive.is/izigr).
Zahawi sought to downplay allegations of rule-breaking by insisting that Sir Keir Starmer should apologise for pictures of him drinking a beer during a work meeting while restrictions banned socialising.
More than 15 Tory MPs have criticised Johnson publicly. Loughton said in a statement: “The reason for my conclusion in calling for him to stand down is the way that he has handled the mounting revelations in the last few weeks. Obfuscation, prevarication and evasion have been the order of the day, when clarity, honesty and contrition was what was needed and what the British people deserve.
“And for that I express my own apologies to my constituents. If certain less battle-hardened colleagues of mine think that makes me out to be a ‘lightweight’ then so be it.”
He said changes to the top team would make no difference. “In this case, all roads lead back to Downing Street and the person whose name is on the front door. The longer it drags on, the more potential damage will be done to the important office that he holds, and by association the capacity of the government to ensure that the country at large is following the measures that are needed to see us through the pandemic.”
Tobias Ellwood, chairman of the defence select committee, said the prime minister must “lead or step aside”. He told the BBC: “We need leadership.”
James Wild, a Tory MP and government aide, said that Johnson should have apologised sooner. The prime minister waited days before [admitting he had attended a drinks party](https://archive.is/w73JF) in the No 10 garden on May 20, 2020.
Sir Iain Duncan Smith, a former Conservative Party leader, said the lockdown parties were “unforgivable” but he added that an official report by Sue Gray would demonstrate whether the prime minister “knew or understood what was going on”.
He told Times Radio: “Many people feel very angry about how these events were allowed to happen. I feel very angry. We need to rebuild trust.”
Duncan Smith said he did not think the prime minister should resign even if Gray were critical of him. He said: “I do not think in principle that the prime minister should resign but he does need to come before parliament and accept full responsibility.”
Starmer, however, insisted yesterday that Johnson should resign “in the national interest”. He also claimed he had not breached the rules when he drank a bottle of beer in his Durham constituency office with staff during lockdown, a few days before the Hartlepool by-election last year.
He told the *Sunday Morning* programme: “I was in a constituency office. We were very busy. We stopped for something to eat and then we carried on working. No party, no breach of the rules and absolutely no comparison with the prime minister.”
Zahawi said that Starmer should apologise.
*Chris Smyth, Whitehall Editor* | *Steven Swinford, Political Editor*
Monday January 17 2022, 11.00am, The Times
Boris might not. Patel, Truss or Raab might though.
Boris won’t but the fresh face they’ll bring in to do their soft reboot in the spring can.
They have almost 2 years and the May-Johnson years, Brexit and Covid will be quietly buried under the rug and the fresh face will get soundbites such as “forge ahead” “glorious future” etc to dump on us all from Tory PR HQ. Soundbites which the media will happily roll with.
Labour should not even think about celebrating yet. It is not 1997. Its going to be a scrap.
I’m sure the next toff they replace him with is going to much better /s
The head on that pint is fucking terrible. It’s a good quarter of the glass.
That alone should disqualify the man.
Dosent realy matter the elections are 4 years away most voters will forget this or many just won’t care as he got breixt done even if it was a massive fuck up
He reminds me of a young father Jack from “father Ted.”
The Tories will still do fine. Labour are ahead because Starmer is not Johnson, not because people trust Labour more than they trust the Tories at the end of the day. If Labour want to capitalise on the current situation, they need to start telling people exactly how they would reverse the current cost of living crisis we are facing. Waiting for the next election will not be enough.
8 comments
Most of PM’s 2019 voters have turned on him, says leading analyst
–
Boris Johnson is unlikely to recover fully from the Downing Street party scandal, a polling expert has predicted as ministers insist that he has got the “big calls” right.
Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, claimed that the prime minister was safe in his job despite dozens of Conservative MPs submitting letters of no confidence. Tim Loughton, one of six to call publicly for his resignation, said that a planned clearout of Johnson’s No 10 team would make little difference.
Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and one of the country’s leading pollsters, said that other backbenchers “have to ask themselves whether or not the prime minister is likely to recover from a situation where around a half of the people who voted for him thinks he should go”.
Curtice told Times Radio it was remarkable that a majority of people who voted Tory in 2019 now disapproved of the prime minister’s performance, saying this was a consistent picture across the polls.
Conservative support has dropped ten points in ten weeks, putting the party well behind Labour. Curtice said that their polling record after previous scandals, including earlier revelations of parties, the [Owen Paterson sleaze row](https://archive.is/cbZJh) and a lockdown-breaking [trip to Barnard Castle by Dominic Cummings](https://archive.is/v1Xn6), suggested that the Tories would struggle to make up lost ground.
“Some of the anger will dissipate, some of the Conservative support will return. But on current form so far that might get the Tories back up to 34 per cent. It’s not going to get them back to the 40 per cent that they were at before this started,” he said.
Johnson is expected to ban alcohol in No 10 after reports of staff drinking until 3am, sleeping off hangovers on sofas in the office, and even clubbing together to buy their own wine cooler for the press office.
Zahawi, a potential candidate to succeed Johnson, defended the prime minister. He told Times Radio: “If you think again about the big calls, whether it’s Brexit, the vaccine programme, which the prime minister very much focused on and I led the deployment, and of course the call on Omicron pre-Christmas . . . on the big decisions, he’s made the right call.”
Asked three times on the BBC whether the prime minister was safe in his job, Zahawi said; “Yes, he is, because he’s human and we make mistakes.”
*The Times* disclosed last week that Johnson felt frustrated that staff had put him in a position where his premiership was at risk. He told Tories last week that he was effectively taking a “hit” for the team.
Conservative Party sources claimed he said: “Sometimes we take the credit for things we don’t deserve and this time we’re taking hits for something we don’t deserve.”
Cabinet ministers are pressing him to sack Dan Rosenfield, his chief of staff, and there are suggestions that the communications team [will face a clearout](https://archive.is/izigr).
Zahawi sought to downplay allegations of rule-breaking by insisting that Sir Keir Starmer should apologise for pictures of him drinking a beer during a work meeting while restrictions banned socialising.
More than 15 Tory MPs have criticised Johnson publicly. Loughton said in a statement: “The reason for my conclusion in calling for him to stand down is the way that he has handled the mounting revelations in the last few weeks. Obfuscation, prevarication and evasion have been the order of the day, when clarity, honesty and contrition was what was needed and what the British people deserve.
“And for that I express my own apologies to my constituents. If certain less battle-hardened colleagues of mine think that makes me out to be a ‘lightweight’ then so be it.”
He said changes to the top team would make no difference. “In this case, all roads lead back to Downing Street and the person whose name is on the front door. The longer it drags on, the more potential damage will be done to the important office that he holds, and by association the capacity of the government to ensure that the country at large is following the measures that are needed to see us through the pandemic.”
Tobias Ellwood, chairman of the defence select committee, said the prime minister must “lead or step aside”. He told the BBC: “We need leadership.”
James Wild, a Tory MP and government aide, said that Johnson should have apologised sooner. The prime minister waited days before [admitting he had attended a drinks party](https://archive.is/w73JF) in the No 10 garden on May 20, 2020.
Sir Iain Duncan Smith, a former Conservative Party leader, said the lockdown parties were “unforgivable” but he added that an official report by Sue Gray would demonstrate whether the prime minister “knew or understood what was going on”.
He told Times Radio: “Many people feel very angry about how these events were allowed to happen. I feel very angry. We need to rebuild trust.”
Duncan Smith said he did not think the prime minister should resign even if Gray were critical of him. He said: “I do not think in principle that the prime minister should resign but he does need to come before parliament and accept full responsibility.”
Starmer, however, insisted yesterday that Johnson should resign “in the national interest”. He also claimed he had not breached the rules when he drank a bottle of beer in his Durham constituency office with staff during lockdown, a few days before the Hartlepool by-election last year.
He told the *Sunday Morning* programme: “I was in a constituency office. We were very busy. We stopped for something to eat and then we carried on working. No party, no breach of the rules and absolutely no comparison with the prime minister.”
Zahawi said that Starmer should apologise.
*Chris Smyth, Whitehall Editor* | *Steven Swinford, Political Editor*
Monday January 17 2022, 11.00am, The Times
Boris might not. Patel, Truss or Raab might though.
Boris won’t but the fresh face they’ll bring in to do their soft reboot in the spring can.
They have almost 2 years and the May-Johnson years, Brexit and Covid will be quietly buried under the rug and the fresh face will get soundbites such as “forge ahead” “glorious future” etc to dump on us all from Tory PR HQ. Soundbites which the media will happily roll with.
Labour should not even think about celebrating yet. It is not 1997. Its going to be a scrap.
I’m sure the next toff they replace him with is going to much better /s
The head on that pint is fucking terrible. It’s a good quarter of the glass.
That alone should disqualify the man.
Dosent realy matter the elections are 4 years away most voters will forget this or many just won’t care as he got breixt done even if it was a massive fuck up
He reminds me of a young father Jack from “father Ted.”
The Tories will still do fine. Labour are ahead because Starmer is not Johnson, not because people trust Labour more than they trust the Tories at the end of the day. If Labour want to capitalise on the current situation, they need to start telling people exactly how they would reverse the current cost of living crisis we are facing. Waiting for the next election will not be enough.