Die „getäuschte“ Hamas habe eine „katastrophale Fehleinschätzung“ begangen, sagen palästinensische Analysten

by BreadNo2957

32 comments

  2. Palestinian civilian deaths = $ for Hamas leaders in Qatar

    It’s not a miscalculation.

  4. “Palestinian analysts have said that Hamas “catastrophically miscalculated” the balance of the military power between themselves and the IDF and, although the terror group will be hard to destroy, ”

    Lmao, ya right. They perfectly well knew. If anything they miscalculated the response, thinking it would be like when they fire rockets. In likelihood they were being paid to cause this exact situation.

  5. >Palestinian analysts have said that Hamas “catastrophically miscalculated” the balance of the military power between themselves and the IDF and, although the terror group will be hard to destroy, it is a shattered organisation with the hostages their only remaining leverage.

    Wait….

    Wait a half a fucking second, here.

    Did Hamas sincerely believe they stood a chance in hell against the IDF? Is that the thinking that preceded October 7th, *that they could win!?*

    We’ve gotta’ take a step back from the particulars of this war for a moment, because this is an island of stupidity unto itself. Holy shit. I thought Hamas was trying to provoke Israel into an unpopular war, leveraging worldwide concern for the suffering of the Palestinian people to reign in Israel’s use of force and undermine their support on the global stage. Kind of like what we’ve been seeing.

    If Hamas genuinely thought they’d be able to win a war with the IDF, I kind of can’t even right now, that’s a bit like a fruit fly proclaiming it can win a war against a baseball bat.

    The people of Palestine are dying because Hamas put on their big boy britches and they didn’t fit, which just makes this whole cluster fuck even worse. The people of Palestine need to start dragging these dipshits out into the street.

  6. Religious fundamentalists whose financial incentives are predicated on Israels enemies wanting to cause the maximum amount of chaos in the region can’t make good calculations?

    Shocketh. Pureth, Shocketh.

  7. They acheived their principle goal. That was to destroy the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

  10. Did a bullet have to be fired for them to work this out?

  11. I think Hamas really thought it was going to get a street-by-street battle in Gaza City with a few dozen Palestinian casualties each week matched by a few dozen Israeli casualties, and that they would force the IDF to a stalemate followed by a withdrawal.

    And Hamas probably calculated that it would get exactly the same sympathy for a few dozen casualties per week out of the broader west that it has gotten for 30,000+ casualties. I think Hamas is right on this point – the imagery is what matters, not the number of bodies, at least for shaping public perception. The problem for Hamas is that 10/7 was itself a total shitshow. They were *too* successful because the IDF was really caught completely unaware and as a result Hamas had too much time in the Kibbutzen and at the rave to murder and rape. It’s also not 1968 any more, so a lot of it was captured on video. The attack provoked a much more powerful response from Israel than Hamas was anticipating, a response that Hamas thought would be impossible given the political orientation of Israel and the power of the wider Palestinian/Arab diaspora in the U.S. But in the face of 10/7 the response was just like the U.S. response to Peal Harbor or 9/11 – the enemy bit off too much.

    Post-war Gaza might look a lot like post-war Berlin in 1945. With much of Gaza physically destroyed by war, the remaining population may be less inclined to continue the struggle against Israel. This is the irony of war: small defeats encourage the defeated to dig in and continue the struggle, but massive defeats show the defeated that there is no point in continuing the struggle. During the reconstruction period that will follow, every Palestinian is going to have real skin in the game when they decide how to move forward.

    This isn’t 2005 where a voter is turning to Hamas because Hamas vows to continue the fight against Israel and never give up – because now Palestinian civilians have a peek at how disastrous defeat can actually be, including that such a defeat may actually impact them directly rather than just abstractly (unlike the 2018 and 2021 skirmishes, which only impacted non-combatant civilians indirectly through the security cordon and the like).

    This is how peace in Israel can actually be forged. Not through endless small squabbles that end in a ceasefire and ambiguity about who “won” the skirmish. Israel needs to give the Palestinians the benefit of seeing a total defeat so that they know what will come next time 40,000 of their sons sign up to be terrorists to pull off another 10/7. You won’t see mothers praising their sons for joining Hamas after this conflict, because everyone will know where that road leads and it isn’t somewhere the vast majority of Palestinians will want to go. The technological advantage of the IDF coupled with the lack of Palestinian allies in the region taking up arms against Israel (even Hizbollah left them hanging) shows that there is no “low-tech” homemade rocket/tunnel strategy that can defeat a world power like Israel. There literally is no point to launching a future conflict because it cannot be won. The allies taught that lesson to the Germans and Japanese in 1945 and the Palestinians are learning it now.

  15. Just before the attack, Putin visited the Iranians. My guess is, he handed a big bag of gold to the Iranians to give to the Hamas leaders to get them to attack.

  16. No shit.

    Hopefully Russia didn’t make a good decision, and Biden doesn’t lose the election.

  17. Amazing what you can accomplish when you view your own people as a currency to spend to enrich yourself and they let you do it.

  18. Did Hamas think they had the means to even stand a chance against Israel, or did they forget Israel is a nuclear power and has one of the strongest militaries in the world?

  19. I wonder if the Palestinian people will ever realize their greatest enemy is Hamas.

  20. >Yezid Sayigh, a Palestinian analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the FT that Hamas had harboured the “delusion” that Israel’s response to Ocotber 7 would cause mass uprisings against the Jewish state across the Middle East.

    >With Hezbollah and other Iran-backed forces largely contained and – as yet – no large-scale uprisings in the West Bank, this strategy was a “catastrophic miscalculation”, Sayigh said.

  21. I’m wondering when Pro-Palestinian supports realize/begin to realize that Hamas, the current governing body of the Palestinian people, cares less about their people then anyone else in the world (including Israel)

  23. Article goes on about catastrophic miscalculation that got half their fighters killed or injured, destroyed the infrastructure, and likely threw them out of power.

    Then “They’re not idiots.”

    Yeah, I’m gonna have to beg to differ with you on that one, dog.

  24. While Israel may be dicks for what they are doing in Palestine, I would posit that Hamas are definitely the assholes here for kicking it off.

  25. That’s what I said day one, Hamas all but ended the possibility of a two state solution and the Palestinian citizens were going to pay the price

  26. In the past, Israel has been more open to ceasefires and prisoner exchanges in order to get captives (live and dead) back. Netanyahu isn’t doing that this time.

  27. Hamas is getting exactly what they wanted. To provoke cleansing by Israel and engender great hatred towards the entire Jewish diaspora in the process. Utterly sickening.

  28. Foreign proxies have always considered the Palestinians to be expendable. Forign proxies have done more harm to the Palestinian cause in the last 75 years than Israel has.

  29. mightve been hoping to throw a wrench in Saudi-Israeli talks, which would very much mean the beginning of the end for hamas

  30. Pretty sure hamas didn’t really think they would be as ‘sucessful’ as they were on 7th October. Unfortunately Israel let its guard down and got hit hard.

    Well…at least Israel can kill…sorry I mean neutralise all of hamas now. Hope that hamas come out to fight so civilians can be safe.

  31. I want to say some of that balance of power was also predicated on the idea that the IDF wouldn’t go as far as they have in retaliation… that they would’ve always been able to hide like cockroaches underground, or amongst the population, and Israel would eventually stop in the name of avoiding the butchering of civilians en masse. It’s hard to say that with so many deaths because civilians are dying anyway and it sucks, but it’s part of the reason why the US was in Afghanistan for 20 years and accomplished practically nothing in the long run. It’s not that the US didn’t have the capability, it’s that nobody wants to go around killing hundreds of thousands of civilians who did nothing wrong. They count on that. They use that. It’s part of the military strategy for groups like that. You can’t just blow everything up. If Hamas legitimately believes that Israel doesn’t have the raw firepower to do that, then they’re fools. It’s them partly banking on that restraint.

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