Rishi Sunak wants inflation to fall to its 2 per cent target before calling an election, senior Government sources have indicated in a fresh sign the UK is heading for an autumn vote.
The Prime Minister fulfilled his pledge to see inflation halved early when figures showed the rate of price increases had dropped to 4.6 per cent in October, dropping from 10.1 per cent in January 2023.
But Mr Sunak wants to go a step further by seeing inflation levels returning to the Bank of England’s target of 2 per cent – set to ensure economic stability – which will be a totemic moment, given that he entered Downing Street when it peaked at 11.1 per cent in October 2022.
Critics have said the Prime Minister has claimed credit for falling inflation, despite this being the remit of the Bank of England, which sets interest rates.
But those in his inner circle point to restraint on public sector pay and Mr Sunak’s resistance to calls for tax cuts for a year as evidence he too has played a key role in bringing down inflation.
Discussing election timing, a senior Government source said Mr Sunak “wants inflation to come down to 2 per cent” before going to the polls.
Another Government source added: “We definitely want inflation to come down – it is a tax on everyone.”
i understands the Treasury expects inflation to fall back to its 2 per cent target by summer.
The Bank predicts inflation will be 3.5 per cent in February, 3.1 per cent in March before hitting 2.1 per cent in April and falling to 1.9 per cent in May and June and then rising again.
On the face of it, this keeps open the possibility of a spring election.
But the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will not report the inflation rate for April – when it is due to come close to target – until 21 May.
If forecasts are borne out and Mr Sunak were to wait for inflation to hit the target, the six-week election campaign period would therefore mean a poll in early July, which is believed by most in Westminster to be highly unlikely. The next likeliest date would be autumn.
Plans to wait until inflation is firmly back under control before going to the country have been welcomed by some Tory MPs.
Backbencher Matt Warman told i: “I think it is very sensible, because, at the end of the day, the economy is going in the right direction and it needs to go in that direction a heck of a lot faster. And I think it’s right that the PM and the Chancellor want longer to demonstrate they can do that.”
Mr Warman said they are likely to look at inflation figures as well as job stats before deciding when to call the election, and to ensure the public is seeing a shift in negative headlines about the economy.
“People do see those headlines so the further we can demonstrate that they are no longer continuing the better, and that takes time,” he added.
i understands the security services have been probing risks of holding an autumn election at the same time as the United States going to the polls and is satisfied that this will not be an issue, despite both governments of the transatlantic alliance being focused on campaigning during a period of global instability.
Meanwhile, some in Government are concerned that the Red Sea crisis could knock inflation off course, as Houthi attacks on container ships threaten to drive up prices.
This could yet mean Mr Sunak is unable to fulfil his wish of hitting 2 per cent before an election.
The Prime Minister has previously said his “working assumption” is an election in the second half of the year.
Gonna be waiting a long fucking time then.
Too many companies still profiteering, and phone, mobile and internet bills are all due to go up by 8-12% at the end of this month.
It’s still odd to me that the government is given the power to decide exactly when the election happens. It seems blatantly undemocratic
Similarly how they can call a snap election whenever they want, timing it with some scandal in the opposition or boost for themselves to extend their time in office
I think it should be a requirement that the government sets at least the month of the next election at the start of each term, and they aren’t allowed to change it (not perfect as they’d just call a snap one to bypass that, but *something* like this should be done)
Interesting.
In u.s they don’t expect inflation To drop 2% for a while..
Have they tried to do something to make this happen?
Has he turned the money printer off yet otherwise inflation won’t be changing any time soon
At least he got that racist issue sorted ! Conservatives……
I’m genuinely not sure he has time.
I know what the market is predicting for inflation, I’m just not totally convinced it’ll be right. If things get worse in the ME or Ukraine, or a third major conflict kicks off then it’s easy to see rates and inflation both moving higher not lower.
Holding onto power as long as they can ! Wouldn’t surprise me if the Tories refuse to call an election at all… looks like we’ll be stuck with these despots for ever 😩
Its all guess work. In the last month we have had claims a GE will be in autumn, May, snap election shortly and now when inflation is 2%
If that happens he’s going to campaign on how his ‘plan’ is working, even though managing inflation is the job of the BoE, rather than the government
What’s most annoying about Tories talking about their ‘plan’ is at no point have they explained the economic principles and long term strategies of this ‘plan’, or how any of it leads to back to proper growth.
So he wants the carnage of local elections, more tory defections to Reform and of course tens of thousands of small boat arrivals before a GE.
Good luck with that!
Bla bla bla he’s waiting until inflation hits 2%…bla bla bla he’s waiting until 10 Tory MPs defect to Reform…bla bla bla…
Waiting for inflation to hit 2%.
Or tory support?
With the BoE setting rates and most of the pressure from external sources he has as much control over inflation as the weather.
Even if it is 2% the real world experience for most has been far worse.
Yes – wait for inflation to fall due to natural market forces. The Government haven’t realistically done anything to reduce it. If anything – it was:
1. Other Governments that caused some of the inflation in the first place (starting wars etc.) and therefore also responsible for it reducing as things stabilised a little.
2. Profiteering companies who jumped on the “cost of living” bandwagon (or rather – cartel) to put up their prices permanently.
And to combat that? Yes – let’s increase debt repayments for the public. Surely the winners will be the general public because it’ll stop people spending on pointless things and bring inflation down? The winners are the public right?
Rishi’s had his time in No. 10, he’ll always have been PM and that looks great for any board that wants him as a non-executive director.
At the same time the longer they hold off, the warmer the weather gets, the more boats are likely to start crossing.
Rishi’s got to decide if they want to run on “strong on borders” or “strong on the economy”.
And at this point I genuinely don’t think they even understand that the longer they hold off, the more people are getting pissed off with this zombie wreck of a government delaying the inevitable.
All pie in the sky unless a nation has nationalised water, energy, transport and defence. How can anyone expect to keep inflation under control when it does not own its own assets.
Even our councils are now bankrupt because they simply do not own any of the assets they once used too.
Is it cheaper to for a home owner or someone renting ?
The key is simple, take back the land and assets that should be owned by the nation. The wealthiest loose out on the basis that they never paid any tax for generations on the wealth gained.
This crook again! Brits are too docile. Imagine being led by this crook and being okay with it.
Does he realise that people won’t feel any benefit of things not getting more expensive? If things aren’t getting cheaper, people won’t feel better off. 2% inflation just locks in price rises. These people have no political instincts.
Fucking joke. In a few months we will have even more rises in rents, energy, mobile, internet, car payments, food prices and the list goes on. Corporate profiteering led by most of the fucking Tory cabinet is rife. These cunts need to go now.
Why is Sunak waiting for inflation to hit 2%?? Is he hoping to save some money on the printing of the campaign leaflets?
Let’s hope it’s announced tomorrow so we can get rid of him and his trainwreck party
Does he really think that’s the vote winning result he’s after. 🤔
I hate the grifting bastards as much as the next man but the general public are gullible enough to buy this if they don’t all eat each other over some nuclear scale scandal. Tbf they seem indestructible right now, it really doesn’t matter what scandal it is nowadays, they could literally steal a pensioners hand bag and then shit in it, gaslight it as some stunt gone wrong and that same pensioner would still vote for them come general election.
I wonder what the odds are on a Conservative win…
They should a be set amount off years that GE are called.
28 comments
(Article)
—
Rishi Sunak wants inflation to fall to its 2 per cent target before calling an election, senior Government sources have indicated in a fresh sign the UK is heading for an autumn vote.
The Prime Minister fulfilled his pledge to see inflation halved early when figures showed the rate of price increases had dropped to 4.6 per cent in October, dropping from 10.1 per cent in January 2023.
But Mr Sunak wants to go a step further by seeing inflation levels returning to the Bank of England’s target of 2 per cent – set to ensure economic stability – which will be a totemic moment, given that he entered Downing Street when it peaked at 11.1 per cent in October 2022.
Critics have said the Prime Minister has claimed credit for falling inflation, despite this being the remit of the Bank of England, which sets interest rates.
But those in his inner circle point to restraint on public sector pay and Mr Sunak’s resistance to calls for tax cuts for a year as evidence he too has played a key role in bringing down inflation.
Discussing election timing, a senior Government source said Mr Sunak “wants inflation to come down to 2 per cent” before going to the polls.
Another Government source added: “We definitely want inflation to come down – it is a tax on everyone.”
i understands the Treasury expects inflation to fall back to its 2 per cent target by summer.
The Bank predicts inflation will be 3.5 per cent in February, 3.1 per cent in March before hitting 2.1 per cent in April and falling to 1.9 per cent in May and June and then rising again.
On the face of it, this keeps open the possibility of a spring election.
But the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will not report the inflation rate for April – when it is due to come close to target – until 21 May.
If forecasts are borne out and Mr Sunak were to wait for inflation to hit the target, the six-week election campaign period would therefore mean a poll in early July, which is believed by most in Westminster to be highly unlikely. The next likeliest date would be autumn.
Plans to wait until inflation is firmly back under control before going to the country have been welcomed by some Tory MPs.
Backbencher Matt Warman told i: “I think it is very sensible, because, at the end of the day, the economy is going in the right direction and it needs to go in that direction a heck of a lot faster. And I think it’s right that the PM and the Chancellor want longer to demonstrate they can do that.”
Mr Warman said they are likely to look at inflation figures as well as job stats before deciding when to call the election, and to ensure the public is seeing a shift in negative headlines about the economy.
“People do see those headlines so the further we can demonstrate that they are no longer continuing the better, and that takes time,” he added.
i understands the security services have been probing risks of holding an autumn election at the same time as the United States going to the polls and is satisfied that this will not be an issue, despite both governments of the transatlantic alliance being focused on campaigning during a period of global instability.
Meanwhile, some in Government are concerned that the Red Sea crisis could knock inflation off course, as Houthi attacks on container ships threaten to drive up prices.
This could yet mean Mr Sunak is unable to fulfil his wish of hitting 2 per cent before an election.
The Prime Minister has previously said his “working assumption” is an election in the second half of the year.
Gonna be waiting a long fucking time then.
Too many companies still profiteering, and phone, mobile and internet bills are all due to go up by 8-12% at the end of this month.
It’s still odd to me that the government is given the power to decide exactly when the election happens. It seems blatantly undemocratic
Similarly how they can call a snap election whenever they want, timing it with some scandal in the opposition or boost for themselves to extend their time in office
I think it should be a requirement that the government sets at least the month of the next election at the start of each term, and they aren’t allowed to change it (not perfect as they’d just call a snap one to bypass that, but *something* like this should be done)
Interesting.
In u.s they don’t expect inflation To drop 2% for a while..
Have they tried to do something to make this happen?
Has he turned the money printer off yet otherwise inflation won’t be changing any time soon
At least he got that racist issue sorted ! Conservatives……
I’m genuinely not sure he has time.
I know what the market is predicting for inflation, I’m just not totally convinced it’ll be right. If things get worse in the ME or Ukraine, or a third major conflict kicks off then it’s easy to see rates and inflation both moving higher not lower.
Holding onto power as long as they can ! Wouldn’t surprise me if the Tories refuse to call an election at all… looks like we’ll be stuck with these despots for ever 😩
Its all guess work. In the last month we have had claims a GE will be in autumn, May, snap election shortly and now when inflation is 2%
If that happens he’s going to campaign on how his ‘plan’ is working, even though managing inflation is the job of the BoE, rather than the government
What’s most annoying about Tories talking about their ‘plan’ is at no point have they explained the economic principles and long term strategies of this ‘plan’, or how any of it leads to back to proper growth.
So he wants the carnage of local elections, more tory defections to Reform and of course tens of thousands of small boat arrivals before a GE.
Good luck with that!
Bla bla bla he’s waiting until inflation hits 2%…bla bla bla he’s waiting until 10 Tory MPs defect to Reform…bla bla bla…
Waiting for inflation to hit 2%.
Or tory support?
With the BoE setting rates and most of the pressure from external sources he has as much control over inflation as the weather.
Even if it is 2% the real world experience for most has been far worse.
Yes – wait for inflation to fall due to natural market forces. The Government haven’t realistically done anything to reduce it. If anything – it was:
1. Other Governments that caused some of the inflation in the first place (starting wars etc.) and therefore also responsible for it reducing as things stabilised a little.
2. Profiteering companies who jumped on the “cost of living” bandwagon (or rather – cartel) to put up their prices permanently.
And to combat that? Yes – let’s increase debt repayments for the public. Surely the winners will be the general public because it’ll stop people spending on pointless things and bring inflation down? The winners are the public right?
[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68355809](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68355809) – HSBC: Bank’s pre-tax profits soar fuelled by high interest rates
[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68315019](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68315019) – NatWest unveils highest yearly profit since 2007
[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68400869](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68400869) – Bank of Ireland’s pre-tax profit rises by 92%
[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68181253](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-68181253) – Danske Bank reports 80% increase in profits for 2023
Well the energy companies must have suffered from wholesale price increas…
[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68303647](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68303647) – British Gas sees profits increase 10-fold
[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64647854](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64647854) – EDF’s UK profits soar after electricity price hikes
But Brent crude was expensive so oil companies must have really struggl…
[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64489147](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64489147) – Shell reports highest profits in 115 years
[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68206788](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68206788) – BP reports second highest profit in a decade
Oh well.
Rishi’s had his time in No. 10, he’ll always have been PM and that looks great for any board that wants him as a non-executive director.
At the same time the longer they hold off, the warmer the weather gets, the more boats are likely to start crossing.
Rishi’s got to decide if they want to run on “strong on borders” or “strong on the economy”.
And at this point I genuinely don’t think they even understand that the longer they hold off, the more people are getting pissed off with this zombie wreck of a government delaying the inevitable.
Pretty sure it’s illegal to proclaim yourself eternal glorious leader, Rishi.
All pie in the sky unless a nation has nationalised water, energy, transport and defence. How can anyone expect to keep inflation under control when it does not own its own assets.
Even our councils are now bankrupt because they simply do not own any of the assets they once used too.
Is it cheaper to for a home owner or someone renting ?
The key is simple, take back the land and assets that should be owned by the nation. The wealthiest loose out on the basis that they never paid any tax for generations on the wealth gained.
This crook again! Brits are too docile. Imagine being led by this crook and being okay with it.
Does he realise that people won’t feel any benefit of things not getting more expensive? If things aren’t getting cheaper, people won’t feel better off. 2% inflation just locks in price rises. These people have no political instincts.
Fucking joke. In a few months we will have even more rises in rents, energy, mobile, internet, car payments, food prices and the list goes on. Corporate profiteering led by most of the fucking Tory cabinet is rife. These cunts need to go now.
Why is Sunak waiting for inflation to hit 2%?? Is he hoping to save some money on the printing of the campaign leaflets?
Let’s hope it’s announced tomorrow so we can get rid of him and his trainwreck party
Does he really think that’s the vote winning result he’s after. 🤔
I hate the grifting bastards as much as the next man but the general public are gullible enough to buy this if they don’t all eat each other over some nuclear scale scandal. Tbf they seem indestructible right now, it really doesn’t matter what scandal it is nowadays, they could literally steal a pensioners hand bag and then shit in it, gaslight it as some stunt gone wrong and that same pensioner would still vote for them come general election.
I wonder what the odds are on a Conservative win…
They should a be set amount off years that GE are called.