> In the two years he’s served on Ukraine’s battlefield, Ilya has had just 25 days of leave.
>
> “Two years without a break, without rotation — of course, morale is low and it’s killing motivation,” said Ilya, who serves in an assault brigade. “We need either rotation or normal vacations to rest properly.”
>
> The soldier said Ukraine’s open-ended service was among the reasons men tried to avoid being drafted to the front. But, he said, “if people don’t come, we can’t rest”, adding that the personnel shortages were so bad in his unit that upcoming leave had been cancelled.
>
> A new mobilisation law — due to be put to a parliamentary vote on March 31 — seeks to update the country’s legal framework ahead of a probable recruitment wave this year in which up to 500,000 people could be drafted. Some 330,000 troops are estimated to be currently deployed on the battlefield.
>
> The draft will be aimed at modernising recruitment and training as well as replacing those troops who have been there from the first month of war, the Ukrainian defence ministry told the Financial Times. “It will strengthen our defence posture,” it added.
>
> But the law is proving controversial, with more than 4,000 amendments submitted by Ukrainian lawmakers on the first draft.
>
> When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, many Ukrainians volunteered to defend their country. But that pool has been exhausted and a large proportion of the men of fighting age are unwilling to be deployed to the front.
>
> Only men aged 27 or older have been recruited, with those serving on the battlefield being on average in their 40s. Ukraine has a smaller pool of millennials and Gen Zers compared with other nations, given a drop in birth rates after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
>
> A proposal to lower the recruitment age to 25 has sparked a fierce backlash from politicians who argue it would be suicidal for the nation to send its youngest into the trenches.
>
> In a first public announcement about war casualties, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last month said 31,000 soldiers had died so far. The real number is likely to exceed that, with several US officials previously estimating it to be at least more than double that figure.
>
> Data on Ukraine’s male population, shared by the parliamentary economics committee, shows that of 11.1mn Ukrainian men aged between 25 and 60, only an estimated 3.7mn are eligible for mobilisation. The others are fighting, disabled, abroad or considered critical workers.
>
> Authorities are also conscious of the need to tread carefully to avoid driving taxpaying citizens abroad or to go into hiding, depriving Kyiv of much-needed revenue.
>
> A February survey by Info Sapiens, a Ukrainian social research organisation, found 48 per cent of men were not prepared to fight while 34 per cent were. The rest said it was hard to say.
>
> “I’m not afraid to admit that I don’t want to die,” said Yaroslav, who tried to flee Ukraine last summer but was turned back at the border when he presented fake medical exemption papers.
>
> “You have to decide what you love more, your family or your country,” said the 32-year-old father of a young child.
> New mobilisation law seeks to draft up to 500,000 Ukrainian men. Graphic showing a breakdown of the 11.1mn men in Ukraine and how many are available to mobilise
>
> Since 2022, men aged between 27 and 60 have been banned from leaving the country, with a few exceptions on medical grounds or for sole carers of children or disabled family members.
>
> Aside from the fear of death and disability, according to the Info Sapiens study, the main concerns of those seeking to avoid mobilisation were insufficient training, unclear length of service and the lack of weapons and ammunition.
>
> The new mobilisation law seeks to address those issues. The initial draft proposes a service term of three years and a minimum of three months’ training. Some brigades have begun to advertise that volunteers can choose positions tailored to their skills, in an attempt to boost recruitment.
>
> But delays in US and EU military aid, which have forced soldiers to ration ammunition and retreat from frontline positions, are beyond the control of Ukrainian lawmakers.
>
> “We have many people who are willing to do it, but the demotivating factor is this general context — when Ukrainians cease to feel reliable support from the west,” said Anton Hrushetsky from Kyiv’s Sociology Institute, a marketing research firm.
>
> Half of the 90 per cent of respondents to Info Sapiens who said they believed Ukraine could succeed with the support of western allies now think the west is tired and will push Kyiv into a compromise with Russia, Hrushetsky said.
>
> The new law seeks to lower the mobilisation age by two years, to 25, and oblige men to register via an online portal. Failure to do so could result in yet-to-be-decided penalties. Evaders are likely to be subject to home visits from military recruitment officers and have their driver’s licences suspended, according to parliamentarians involved in the final draft.
>
> Perhaps the most controversial aspect of the changes is the introduction of a so-called economic reserve system, which would exempt men considered critical to the economy. The system was intended to be included in the new law but given the outcry it sparked it will now be introduced separately, either by a government decree or a new piece of legislation.
>
> Ukraine has between 550,000 and 700,000 critical workers who are exempt from mobilisation. Under the new system, they will have to contribute to the war effort financially, either by funnelling part of their pay or through a monthly levy.
>
> Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has declined to give details but said “people should be divided into two categories: those who fight [and] those who work to fill the budget”.
>
> Oleksandr Zavitnevych, head of the parliamentary defence committee, who is overseeing the bill, said officials needed to be “careful [about] how we talk about this”.
>
> “Every penny is needed, but it needs to be part of a wide discussion. There are people who see it will divide society into rich and poor,” said Zavitnevych, as the ones who cannot afford the fee will have to be drafted.
>
> Estimates suggest the fee model put forward by the parliament’s economic affairs committee would generate between $5.2bn and $13.1bn annually, based on calculations that up to 2mn men would be able to afford to pay the proposed $520 monthly levy.
>
> The committee’s chair, Dmytro Natalukha, acknowledged that his proposal had been criticised, with people pointing to the fact that those men unable to pay would get drafted. But he argued that whatever approach was chosen, Ukraine needed to generate funds.
>
> “It may sound counterintuitive, but the [economic reserve] scheme is not [designed] to save people from mobilisation, but to generate as many financial resources as possible so that we can mobilise troops,” said Natalukha.
>
> Ukraine’s finance ministry and army have said the new wave of mobilisation will cost Ukraine about $20.8bn in 2024, broadening the gap left by US House Republicans blocking fresh aid for Kyiv. That figure comes on top of Ukraine’s estimated $41bn budget deficit for 2024.
>
> Businesses had questioned why civilians had to be recruited when Ukraine had thousands of security service personnel and police who already had basic training, said Glib Buriak, an economics professor at the Ukrainian-American Concordia University in Kyiv.
>
> Ukraine’s ministry of defence said the police and security services were carrying out “essential work” and some were already fighting in interior ministry battalions.
>
> Buriak said clarification from the new law was key, as businesses and workers were “in dire need of predictability”.
>
> “One of the reasons people leave their jobs at the moment is due to the failed recruitment campaign,” Buriak said. “There are so many questions that are not communicated properly to the population.”
>
No.
Really afaid EU and USA will end up needing to put soldiers in to help.
And it’s so weird we don’t support them enough anymore, USA need to get going again with their help.
russian bots doing overtime 😅
Short answer is No
Can anyone explain to me why North Vietnam with half the population, who suffered a million military deaths plus 2 millions civilians deaths with far more wounded, still managed to find recruits and kept on fighting against a far superior enemy for more than 10 years, and after that against the Khmer Rougue and China but somehow people are talking about that Ukraine can’t after 3 ?
This is why countries need to maintain reserve system of trained people in peacetime, volunteers or conscripts. I mean Finland with only fraction of population of Ukraine’s could have raised 300 000 already trained men at beginning of the war, and still have 600 000 already trained in reserve, and number of trained people would be even higher (but they would be older, and even the 600 000 figure has worse equipment, so no point counting anyone past that), and there would still be some untrained people.
With good reserve system and training Ukraine could have easily had large enough reserves of already trained troops that could simply be equipped and they would be ready to fight.
My point is that its a big strain to start to train people for war when you are already fighting it. Best to do it before, and then if necessary just give refreshment training. Had Ukraine been more prepared, they would have had enough strength for that refreshment training to be 1 month long for those who dont get raised immediately at beginning of the war- which is time period in which some commandos of WW2 were trained (i think that means basic training plus 1 month of commando training).
I am not bashing Ukraine, in 2014 most of the world dod not really care much about Ukraine or Crimea, and Ukraine is suffering from many of the same issues as other post-Soviet states do, and they have already been at war for nearly 2 years.
I am just saying its not good for armies to just rely purely on active duty professionals. Even USA which is big and geographically safe enough to not need massive reserve force has 180 000 reserve soldiers + really good national guard of around 440 000. Countries near likes of Russia should have at least as large reserve force as their main fighting strength is. That gives you enough trained soldiers that you dont need to rush anybody’s training, and if you see need for additional training, you dont need to start from 0.
Numbers dont win wars, but its easier to fight if you are not outnumbered.
Isn’t this why the commander was changed?
Yes, draft women.
I Will write something that will be downvoted to oblivion.
Draft women too (excluding parents or make sure one parent remains for taking care of the children, regardless of gender). Plenty of men are apparently cowards, but women are not described as such in the back.
Plenty of problems with this concept though.
Just a reminder to everyone – Forced mobilisation is a form of slavery.
People would probably be more willing to serve if they they were permanently exempt from frontline roles, I can understand why nobody would sign up if there’s a risk of being transferred to infantry and being sent into the current WW1-like trench meat grinder.
Go recruit them in Russia!
I’m Croatian I decided to join the war , wish me luck , I’m joining the international legion , I have no previous experience just sent the application form , see you in valhalla 😄
I mean prior to the 2022 kick off Ukraine’s population was the same as Frances before WW1 at around 40M and according to google 8M+ Frenchmen fought in WW1..
Of coarse Ukraine can do it.. the gov just doesn’t have the political balls. They thought men would keep volunteering like they did en masse in the first 4-6 months of the war & didnt come up with any solid contingency plan.
Also worth mentioning a lot of western Ukrainians don’t think it’s their responsibility to go die in some hole in Donbas just because eastern Ukrainians are reaping what they sowed.
They’re the ones who voted for pro russian parties for the last 30 years which weakened the country’s military & government. And those same pro russian parties are why russia steamrolled all the way to the Dnipro in the south so quickly with pro russian governors and mayors handing over cities & straight up defecting willy nilly.
It’s understandable really.. why should some guy living all the way in Lviv give a flying fuck about Luhansk?
So there’s that problem.. but back to the question.. can Ukraine mobilize 500,000 men? Definitely. Will they? Time will tell.
They could draft the women.
I heard the french are willing to get involved, let them
From what I gather, Ukraine army is more Soviet than we thought. They make the same mistakes over and over and corruption is still ripe. Commanders going for luxery houses instead of strategic positions is an example I have heard from many soldiers who fought for Ukraine. Also that the front is a wild-west. Many are drinking.
The lack of rotation and overall army management all signs of inefficient organisation. I think Ukraine needs more reforming to get unlimited support. That’s my view at the moment.
No they won’t, and even if they did forcibly conscript 500k they wouldn’t be an effective fighting force. The sooner Zelensky is deposed by someone who is capable of recognizing the reality of the situation the better for everyone involved. No sense in dying for a hopeless cause.
make peace stop the meat grinder
Yes if it manages to deport male refugees back, as Baltic countries already considered doing.
Yes they can. It just requires mobilising the young, which they have thus far refused to do because of the disproportionate impact it will have on Ukraines future economic prospects to have a bunch of 18-25 year olds die
Given the overwhelming support that Ukraine has in the West, why not push for western volunteers to sign up for the Ukrainian army?
Half a million volunteers should be easy to find among the legions of supporters. There’s a billion people in the collective West, half a million men shouldn’t be too hard.
I’ve heard that reddit have a lot of eager pro-war people.
Two weeks ago i read that around 650.000 men in the age-group that would be drafted left the country already… How are they stopping more men from leaving? In the end its gonna be the poor and/or idealistic guys holding the line… Can‘t blame anyone though, i have no idea how i would react…
If NATO send troops in to do mine clearing, peacekeeping and rebuilding, yes.
And this is happening, so, that is a good thing and anyone who says otherwise needs to stop apologising for Russia’s war crimes.
27 comments
> In the two years he’s served on Ukraine’s battlefield, Ilya has had just 25 days of leave.
>
> “Two years without a break, without rotation — of course, morale is low and it’s killing motivation,” said Ilya, who serves in an assault brigade. “We need either rotation or normal vacations to rest properly.”
>
> The soldier said Ukraine’s open-ended service was among the reasons men tried to avoid being drafted to the front. But, he said, “if people don’t come, we can’t rest”, adding that the personnel shortages were so bad in his unit that upcoming leave had been cancelled.
>
> A new mobilisation law — due to be put to a parliamentary vote on March 31 — seeks to update the country’s legal framework ahead of a probable recruitment wave this year in which up to 500,000 people could be drafted. Some 330,000 troops are estimated to be currently deployed on the battlefield.
>
> The draft will be aimed at modernising recruitment and training as well as replacing those troops who have been there from the first month of war, the Ukrainian defence ministry told the Financial Times. “It will strengthen our defence posture,” it added.
>
> But the law is proving controversial, with more than 4,000 amendments submitted by Ukrainian lawmakers on the first draft.
>
> When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, many Ukrainians volunteered to defend their country. But that pool has been exhausted and a large proportion of the men of fighting age are unwilling to be deployed to the front.
>
> Only men aged 27 or older have been recruited, with those serving on the battlefield being on average in their 40s. Ukraine has a smaller pool of millennials and Gen Zers compared with other nations, given a drop in birth rates after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
>
> A proposal to lower the recruitment age to 25 has sparked a fierce backlash from politicians who argue it would be suicidal for the nation to send its youngest into the trenches.
>
> In a first public announcement about war casualties, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last month said 31,000 soldiers had died so far. The real number is likely to exceed that, with several US officials previously estimating it to be at least more than double that figure.
>
> Data on Ukraine’s male population, shared by the parliamentary economics committee, shows that of 11.1mn Ukrainian men aged between 25 and 60, only an estimated 3.7mn are eligible for mobilisation. The others are fighting, disabled, abroad or considered critical workers.
>
> Authorities are also conscious of the need to tread carefully to avoid driving taxpaying citizens abroad or to go into hiding, depriving Kyiv of much-needed revenue.
>
> A February survey by Info Sapiens, a Ukrainian social research organisation, found 48 per cent of men were not prepared to fight while 34 per cent were. The rest said it was hard to say.
>
> “I’m not afraid to admit that I don’t want to die,” said Yaroslav, who tried to flee Ukraine last summer but was turned back at the border when he presented fake medical exemption papers.
>
> “You have to decide what you love more, your family or your country,” said the 32-year-old father of a young child.
> New mobilisation law seeks to draft up to 500,000 Ukrainian men. Graphic showing a breakdown of the 11.1mn men in Ukraine and how many are available to mobilise
>
> Since 2022, men aged between 27 and 60 have been banned from leaving the country, with a few exceptions on medical grounds or for sole carers of children or disabled family members.
>
> Aside from the fear of death and disability, according to the Info Sapiens study, the main concerns of those seeking to avoid mobilisation were insufficient training, unclear length of service and the lack of weapons and ammunition.
>
> The new mobilisation law seeks to address those issues. The initial draft proposes a service term of three years and a minimum of three months’ training. Some brigades have begun to advertise that volunteers can choose positions tailored to their skills, in an attempt to boost recruitment.
>
> But delays in US and EU military aid, which have forced soldiers to ration ammunition and retreat from frontline positions, are beyond the control of Ukrainian lawmakers.
>
> “We have many people who are willing to do it, but the demotivating factor is this general context — when Ukrainians cease to feel reliable support from the west,” said Anton Hrushetsky from Kyiv’s Sociology Institute, a marketing research firm.
>
> Half of the 90 per cent of respondents to Info Sapiens who said they believed Ukraine could succeed with the support of western allies now think the west is tired and will push Kyiv into a compromise with Russia, Hrushetsky said.
>
> The new law seeks to lower the mobilisation age by two years, to 25, and oblige men to register via an online portal. Failure to do so could result in yet-to-be-decided penalties. Evaders are likely to be subject to home visits from military recruitment officers and have their driver’s licences suspended, according to parliamentarians involved in the final draft.
>
> Perhaps the most controversial aspect of the changes is the introduction of a so-called economic reserve system, which would exempt men considered critical to the economy. The system was intended to be included in the new law but given the outcry it sparked it will now be introduced separately, either by a government decree or a new piece of legislation.
>
> Ukraine has between 550,000 and 700,000 critical workers who are exempt from mobilisation. Under the new system, they will have to contribute to the war effort financially, either by funnelling part of their pay or through a monthly levy.
>
> Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has declined to give details but said “people should be divided into two categories: those who fight [and] those who work to fill the budget”.
>
> Oleksandr Zavitnevych, head of the parliamentary defence committee, who is overseeing the bill, said officials needed to be “careful [about] how we talk about this”.
>
> “Every penny is needed, but it needs to be part of a wide discussion. There are people who see it will divide society into rich and poor,” said Zavitnevych, as the ones who cannot afford the fee will have to be drafted.
>
> Estimates suggest the fee model put forward by the parliament’s economic affairs committee would generate between $5.2bn and $13.1bn annually, based on calculations that up to 2mn men would be able to afford to pay the proposed $520 monthly levy.
>
> The committee’s chair, Dmytro Natalukha, acknowledged that his proposal had been criticised, with people pointing to the fact that those men unable to pay would get drafted. But he argued that whatever approach was chosen, Ukraine needed to generate funds.
>
> “It may sound counterintuitive, but the [economic reserve] scheme is not [designed] to save people from mobilisation, but to generate as many financial resources as possible so that we can mobilise troops,” said Natalukha.
>
> Ukraine’s finance ministry and army have said the new wave of mobilisation will cost Ukraine about $20.8bn in 2024, broadening the gap left by US House Republicans blocking fresh aid for Kyiv. That figure comes on top of Ukraine’s estimated $41bn budget deficit for 2024.
>
> Businesses had questioned why civilians had to be recruited when Ukraine had thousands of security service personnel and police who already had basic training, said Glib Buriak, an economics professor at the Ukrainian-American Concordia University in Kyiv.
>
> Ukraine’s ministry of defence said the police and security services were carrying out “essential work” and some were already fighting in interior ministry battalions.
>
> Buriak said clarification from the new law was key, as businesses and workers were “in dire need of predictability”.
>
> “One of the reasons people leave their jobs at the moment is due to the failed recruitment campaign,” Buriak said. “There are so many questions that are not communicated properly to the population.”
>
No.
Really afaid EU and USA will end up needing to put soldiers in to help.
And it’s so weird we don’t support them enough anymore, USA need to get going again with their help.
russian bots doing overtime 😅
Short answer is No
Can anyone explain to me why North Vietnam with half the population, who suffered a million military deaths plus 2 millions civilians deaths with far more wounded, still managed to find recruits and kept on fighting against a far superior enemy for more than 10 years, and after that against the Khmer Rougue and China but somehow people are talking about that Ukraine can’t after 3 ?
This is why countries need to maintain reserve system of trained people in peacetime, volunteers or conscripts. I mean Finland with only fraction of population of Ukraine’s could have raised 300 000 already trained men at beginning of the war, and still have 600 000 already trained in reserve, and number of trained people would be even higher (but they would be older, and even the 600 000 figure has worse equipment, so no point counting anyone past that), and there would still be some untrained people.
With good reserve system and training Ukraine could have easily had large enough reserves of already trained troops that could simply be equipped and they would be ready to fight.
My point is that its a big strain to start to train people for war when you are already fighting it. Best to do it before, and then if necessary just give refreshment training. Had Ukraine been more prepared, they would have had enough strength for that refreshment training to be 1 month long for those who dont get raised immediately at beginning of the war- which is time period in which some commandos of WW2 were trained (i think that means basic training plus 1 month of commando training).
I am not bashing Ukraine, in 2014 most of the world dod not really care much about Ukraine or Crimea, and Ukraine is suffering from many of the same issues as other post-Soviet states do, and they have already been at war for nearly 2 years.
I am just saying its not good for armies to just rely purely on active duty professionals. Even USA which is big and geographically safe enough to not need massive reserve force has 180 000 reserve soldiers + really good national guard of around 440 000. Countries near likes of Russia should have at least as large reserve force as their main fighting strength is. That gives you enough trained soldiers that you dont need to rush anybody’s training, and if you see need for additional training, you dont need to start from 0.
Numbers dont win wars, but its easier to fight if you are not outnumbered.
Isn’t this why the commander was changed?
Yes, draft women.
I Will write something that will be downvoted to oblivion.
Draft women too (excluding parents or make sure one parent remains for taking care of the children, regardless of gender). Plenty of men are apparently cowards, but women are not described as such in the back.
Plenty of problems with this concept though.
Just a reminder to everyone – Forced mobilisation is a form of slavery.
People would probably be more willing to serve if they they were permanently exempt from frontline roles, I can understand why nobody would sign up if there’s a risk of being transferred to infantry and being sent into the current WW1-like trench meat grinder.
Go recruit them in Russia!
I’m Croatian I decided to join the war , wish me luck , I’m joining the international legion , I have no previous experience just sent the application form , see you in valhalla 😄
I mean prior to the 2022 kick off Ukraine’s population was the same as Frances before WW1 at around 40M and according to google 8M+ Frenchmen fought in WW1..
Of coarse Ukraine can do it.. the gov just doesn’t have the political balls. They thought men would keep volunteering like they did en masse in the first 4-6 months of the war & didnt come up with any solid contingency plan.
Also worth mentioning a lot of western Ukrainians don’t think it’s their responsibility to go die in some hole in Donbas just because eastern Ukrainians are reaping what they sowed.
They’re the ones who voted for pro russian parties for the last 30 years which weakened the country’s military & government. And those same pro russian parties are why russia steamrolled all the way to the Dnipro in the south so quickly with pro russian governors and mayors handing over cities & straight up defecting willy nilly.
It’s understandable really.. why should some guy living all the way in Lviv give a flying fuck about Luhansk?
So there’s that problem.. but back to the question.. can Ukraine mobilize 500,000 men? Definitely. Will they? Time will tell.
They could draft the women.
I heard the french are willing to get involved, let them
From what I gather, Ukraine army is more Soviet than we thought. They make the same mistakes over and over and corruption is still ripe. Commanders going for luxery houses instead of strategic positions is an example I have heard from many soldiers who fought for Ukraine. Also that the front is a wild-west. Many are drinking.
The lack of rotation and overall army management all signs of inefficient organisation. I think Ukraine needs more reforming to get unlimited support. That’s my view at the moment.
No they won’t, and even if they did forcibly conscript 500k they wouldn’t be an effective fighting force. The sooner Zelensky is deposed by someone who is capable of recognizing the reality of the situation the better for everyone involved. No sense in dying for a hopeless cause.
make peace stop the meat grinder
Yes if it manages to deport male refugees back, as Baltic countries already considered doing.
Yes they can. It just requires mobilising the young, which they have thus far refused to do because of the disproportionate impact it will have on Ukraines future economic prospects to have a bunch of 18-25 year olds die
Given the overwhelming support that Ukraine has in the West, why not push for western volunteers to sign up for the Ukrainian army?
Half a million volunteers should be easy to find among the legions of supporters. There’s a billion people in the collective West, half a million men shouldn’t be too hard.
I’ve heard that reddit have a lot of eager pro-war people.
Two weeks ago i read that around 650.000 men in the age-group that would be drafted left the country already… How are they stopping more men from leaving? In the end its gonna be the poor and/or idealistic guys holding the line… Can‘t blame anyone though, i have no idea how i would react…
If NATO send troops in to do mine clearing, peacekeeping and rebuilding, yes.
And this is happening, so, that is a good thing and anyone who says otherwise needs to stop apologising for Russia’s war crimes.
Draw all feminists, they are equal to men!