And oil tankers. You can’t sell oil if you can’t transport it
I read this but I don’t think we need to overcomplicate it like this.
Ukraine is attacking Russia’s revenue because *it can.*
Title doesnt sound great, rephrase it
I’ll say it again…. Ukraine needs to send wave after wave of drone attacks to keep hitting these refineries as rapidly as possible, even if it exhausts their supply of these drones. Hold nothing back, because Russia will learn how to track/identify them and how to shoot them down. They will eventually figure out how exposed these refineries are and how much damage to their economy occurs when they are taken out. And they will eventually have time to move their best remaining air defense capabilities in place to protect them. So there needs to be a sense of urgency to get as much done as quickly as possible before they have time to react.
We all keep commenting on how there is a finite number of these refineries (44 total….33 major ones) and they can be taken out. But we also need to realize that is a finite number of things for Russia to protect. Sure, there is an endless supply of other types of infrastructure for Ukraine to target, but none as juicy as these are and wide open for the taking it seems.
>“… much will depend on the extent to which Ukraine can scale up the campaign,”
Really?
In 2 weeks they have taken out 10% of Russia’s refining capacity, more or less.
Do they really need to scale that up to be successful?
Or do they just need to sustain it?
I mean, if they simply maintain a steady pace and have disabled 20% by April and 50% by summer, jfc that’s a lot of victory. Is anyone really going to point to that and say, “well sure okay but Ukraine didn’t *really* succeed, because they failed to scale the operation up by some large factor, hrm hrm”?
If Russia has seen a 50% reduction in oil refining by June, that will mean a near total collapse in petrochemical export income. At the same time that Ukrainian Air Force F-16 squadrons are first hitting the skies in large numbers and allied munitions are flowing in again.
That won’t quite be the end of the war in and of itself, but it’s going to be getting up awfully close.
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And oil tankers. You can’t sell oil if you can’t transport it
I read this but I don’t think we need to overcomplicate it like this.
Ukraine is attacking Russia’s revenue because *it can.*
Title doesnt sound great, rephrase it
I’ll say it again…. Ukraine needs to send wave after wave of drone attacks to keep hitting these refineries as rapidly as possible, even if it exhausts their supply of these drones. Hold nothing back, because Russia will learn how to track/identify them and how to shoot them down. They will eventually figure out how exposed these refineries are and how much damage to their economy occurs when they are taken out. And they will eventually have time to move their best remaining air defense capabilities in place to protect them. So there needs to be a sense of urgency to get as much done as quickly as possible before they have time to react.
We all keep commenting on how there is a finite number of these refineries (44 total….33 major ones) and they can be taken out. But we also need to realize that is a finite number of things for Russia to protect. Sure, there is an endless supply of other types of infrastructure for Ukraine to target, but none as juicy as these are and wide open for the taking it seems.
>“… much will depend on the extent to which Ukraine can scale up the campaign,”
Really?
In 2 weeks they have taken out 10% of Russia’s refining capacity, more or less.
Do they really need to scale that up to be successful?
Or do they just need to sustain it?
I mean, if they simply maintain a steady pace and have disabled 20% by April and 50% by summer, jfc that’s a lot of victory. Is anyone really going to point to that and say, “well sure okay but Ukraine didn’t *really* succeed, because they failed to scale the operation up by some large factor, hrm hrm”?
If Russia has seen a 50% reduction in oil refining by June, that will mean a near total collapse in petrochemical export income. At the same time that Ukrainian Air Force F-16 squadrons are first hitting the skies in large numbers and allied munitions are flowing in again.
That won’t quite be the end of the war in and of itself, but it’s going to be getting up awfully close.