We might see some transition in the characteristics (Lithium -> Sodium or whatever comes after LFP for safety/longevity), but the other tech (CAES, flow batteries, etc) are going to have one hell of a fight on their hands; they are just always going to operate at too small of scales to really compete. Unless they find some synergy with modern geothermal or something that carves out a niche to defend, they’re DOA imho.
Factories are planned several years out. Of course there will be nothing to challenge lithium ion until 2030. Sodium ion might be a notable player by then – and may potentially take over in the long run…but that really depends on whether its envisioned cost savings actually materialize (looks like the anode might be more expensive than in lithium ion batteries).
What the article misses is that a lot of the energy we use is meant to generate heat – not power. So if we’re talking energy storage we need to talk about (long term) heat storage as well. This is not on the radar of most since doing short-ish term power storage is currently a lot more profitable. This will change as that market for grid levelling and day-to-day compensation of variability from renewables gets saturated.
Another piece of the puzzle that is often overlooked is biomass. There’s a lot of biomass/biogas from agricultural waste and sewage which accrues every year that is either going unused or used immediatley by local producers. This could be diverted to become a means of cheap energy storage. If you look at the numbers then biomass *alone* could be enough to cover all long term energy storage needs.
Although it’s far from a sure thing I don’t see much reason to doubt that sodium ion will eventually supplant lithium ion in grid scale storage.
What I doubt is either ever being used for truly long term storage.
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We might see some transition in the characteristics (Lithium -> Sodium or whatever comes after LFP for safety/longevity), but the other tech (CAES, flow batteries, etc) are going to have one hell of a fight on their hands; they are just always going to operate at too small of scales to really compete. Unless they find some synergy with modern geothermal or something that carves out a niche to defend, they’re DOA imho.
Factories are planned several years out. Of course there will be nothing to challenge lithium ion until 2030. Sodium ion might be a notable player by then – and may potentially take over in the long run…but that really depends on whether its envisioned cost savings actually materialize (looks like the anode might be more expensive than in lithium ion batteries).
What the article misses is that a lot of the energy we use is meant to generate heat – not power. So if we’re talking energy storage we need to talk about (long term) heat storage as well. This is not on the radar of most since doing short-ish term power storage is currently a lot more profitable. This will change as that market for grid levelling and day-to-day compensation of variability from renewables gets saturated.
Another piece of the puzzle that is often overlooked is biomass. There’s a lot of biomass/biogas from agricultural waste and sewage which accrues every year that is either going unused or used immediatley by local producers. This could be diverted to become a means of cheap energy storage. If you look at the numbers then biomass *alone* could be enough to cover all long term energy storage needs.
Although it’s far from a sure thing I don’t see much reason to doubt that sodium ion will eventually supplant lithium ion in grid scale storage.
What I doubt is either ever being used for truly long term storage.
Hopefully sodium then aluminium.