Going back to between 1959 and 1963, all of the months for which the annual (or longer) change in monetary supply was negative occurred in the last 16 months.
To clarify by example, the annual percentage change in M2NS between Sept 2022 and Sept 2023 was ~-3.6%.
Another example; the two-year change in M2NS between Dec 2021 and Dec 2023 was ~-3.2%.
What I’ve seen is that changes in M2NS are most likely to be seen in CPIUNS 2 years later for annual changes, and 3 years later for two-year changes.
So, ignoring all other possible effects on CPIUNS (like the Baltimore bridge and rate changes and and and), I’d expect the annual change in CPIUNS to reach a local minimum (possibly even negative!?) right around April of 2025, and the two-year change to reach a local minimum (maybe even negative) right around December of 2026.
US in the negative ? 🤣🤣🤣 what the hell is the National Debt ?
Can someone please explain what this chart means?
Argentine previous government:
*Price controls
*Capital restrictions
*Fix exchange rate
*High taxes
*Extremely high interest rates
*Borrowing foreign money
*Print the hell out of money
“You greddy businessmen stop raising prices😡, you ruining the country”
4 comments
Going back to between 1959 and 1963, all of the months for which the annual (or longer) change in monetary supply was negative occurred in the last 16 months.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2NS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2NS)
To clarify by example, the annual percentage change in M2NS between Sept 2022 and Sept 2023 was ~-3.6%.
Another example; the two-year change in M2NS between Dec 2021 and Dec 2023 was ~-3.2%.
What I’ve seen is that changes in M2NS are most likely to be seen in CPIUNS 2 years later for annual changes, and 3 years later for two-year changes.
So, ignoring all other possible effects on CPIUNS (like the Baltimore bridge and rate changes and and and), I’d expect the annual change in CPIUNS to reach a local minimum (possibly even negative!?) right around April of 2025, and the two-year change to reach a local minimum (maybe even negative) right around December of 2026.
US in the negative ? 🤣🤣🤣 what the hell is the National Debt ?
Can someone please explain what this chart means?
Argentine previous government:
*Price controls
*Capital restrictions
*Fix exchange rate
*High taxes
*Extremely high interest rates
*Borrowing foreign money
*Print the hell out of money
“You greddy businessmen stop raising prices😡, you ruining the country”