The Peanut Gallery: Kremlin Deploys Chemical Weapons in Desperate Push to Seize Ocheretyne – Situation Complicated

2 comments

1. Welcome to the [Peanut Gallery](https://www.nuttyspectacle.com/)! Today the war took a dark turn.

   Please remember that I know nothing.

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   **[Ukraine:](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-23-2024)**

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   >The situation in the area of Ocheretyne in Donetsk region is complicated: in an attempt to capture the locality, the enemy uses the entire available arsenal of weapons against our units, including chemical poisons, and tries to consolidate in the southern part of Ocheretyne.

   >At the present time, the majority of the settlement is controlled by the Defense Forces, the southern part of the locality is under the fire control of our artillery, and exhaustive measures are being taken to drive the enemy out of the southern part of Ocheretyne and stabilize the situation in this direction.

   We knew this day would come. Putin spent the entire war flirting with chemical weapons. Public perception held him back. It’s difficult—downright impossible to frame this conflict as a righteous Slavic crusade when the Russian army gasses the very people they’ve ostensibly come to liberate. [Even Hitler balked at the prospect of chemical weapons.](https://www.history.com/news/the-nazis-developed-sarin-gas-but-hitler-was-afraid-to-use-it) The man was a bloodthirsty animal, but he remembered the horrors of the First World War. There are some lines which must never be crossed.

   [Ocheretyne](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Ocheretyne,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine,+86020/@48.2391912,37.5747129,11.75z/data=!4m10!1m2!2m1!1sOcheretyno!3m6!1s0x40de2b88cd166475:0xbde0b52aaab13610!8m2!3d48.2443449!4d37.6115725!15sCgpPY2hlcmV0eW5vkgEIbG9jYWxpdHngAQA!16s%2Fg%2F122xffj2?entry=ttu) is a smallish settlement to the northwest of Avdiivka, prewar population of about 3.5 thousand. Strategically the settlement matters because it’s situated on the highlands between two rivers, acting as a gateway of sorts to the lowlands behind. If it falls, so too do the settlements directly to the west.

   I wish I had better news. Russia’s deployment of chemical weapons now is a direct response to the imminent arrival of American and Czech artillery shells. Russia *needs* to create a breach; they *need* to exploit this small window of opportunity to the maximum they are able, which means using every tool at their disposal. Yes, this escalation is likely a sign of the Kremlin’s desperation, but it’s one with real potential for harm.

   My heart goes out to the brave Ukrainians holding the frontline. Stay strong. Help is on the way.

   >United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the UK’s largest ever package of military assistance to Ukraine valued at 500 million pounds (around $662 million) on April 23.

   >Sunak announced on April 23 that the UK will provide over 400 vehicles, 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition, 60 boats, air defense equipment, and Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine. Sunak also stated that the UK will increase its military spending to 2.5 percent of its GDP by 2030, with spending gradually increasing to 87 billion pounds (about $108 billion) in the next six years. Sunak stated that the increased defense spending will put the UK “on a war footing” as the UK is facing an “axis of authoritarian states with different values…like Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China.”

   [Rule, Britannia! Britannia rules the waves! Britons never, never, never shall be slaves!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2c5QHtgFxY)

   Lots and lots of boats recently. Anyone else notice that? Me thinks Ukraine is up to something.

   The real important takeaway, however, is the promise to spend 2.5% of Britain’s GDP on defense. That number lends confidence to defense industrialists to invest heavily into long-term productive capacity. The ‘market cap’ of their industry just got a whole hell of a lot higher. These are the sorts of investments NATO has needed to make for years, and I’m glad the West is finally investing sufficiently into their own manufacturing capacity. A potentially expansionist CCP represents a threat the entire world must prepare to contain, and we can’t pull that off if we restrict ourselves to peacetime spending levels.

   A sufficient investment in defense *now* helps deter future war.

   >Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu highlighted ongoing Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and announced Russia’s intent to intensify its strike campaign to disrupt Ukrainian logistics.

   >Shoigu’s focus on striking Ukrainian logistics suggests that Russian forces may shift their target set to hit Ukrainian transportation infrastructure, logistics, and military storage facilities. Russian forces heavily targeted Ukrainian transportation infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on April 19, and Russian forces may intend to replicate and expand these strikes in the coming weeks to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs). The Russian military command may hope that a coordinated interdiction effort will constrain Ukraine’s ability to sufficiently distribute manpower and materiel to critical sectors of the front and delay the improved capabilities that the arrival of US security assistance will afford Ukrainian forces.

   Looks like the Kremlin shifted their strategic focus to Ukrainian logistics, which, quite frankly, I’m shocked wasn’t their original target. While I’m certain hitting energy infrastructure has *some* sort of effect, I always felt the returns failed to match the Kremlin’s obscene expenditure. Paradoxically, terrorism only works when the fight isn’t existential. People will endure a lot of discomfort if the alternative means surrendering one’s liberty. Authoritarians never seem to grasp that concept. Sacrifice is utterly anathema to their world view.

   Hopefully the Patriot reloads arrive before the Kremlin can do too much damage.

2. So then we can expect biological next and well quite clearly Russia does not have nukes off the table….