The Peanut Gallery: Ukraine Holds Fast in Ocheretyne as Russia Creeps into Outskirts

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1. Welcome to the [Peanut Gallery](https://www.nuttyspectacle.com/)! Today you should probably read this on [www.NuttySpectacle.com](. I try not to narratively plug, but…well, pictures are worth a thousand words and I ain’t got all night.

   Please remember that I know nothing.

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   **[Ukraine:](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-25-2024)**

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   Honestly, I’ve put off a comprehensive review of the frontline situation for quite some time—not because I don’t want to do it, but because I didn’t know *how* to do it. Google Maps only takes a fella so far, y’know? And if I wanted to do the topic justice then I needed to tread on someone’s copyright. Ripping quotes for context is one thing, but art assets could get me sued. But now I’m out of excuses. Biden signed Ukraine’s funding package, the weapons are on their way, and y’all deserve to know what’s going on.

   Feel free to send your Cease & Desist letters to Storyteller@NuttySpectacle.com, ISW. I’d prefer not to draw a Fair Use Penis on the assets I rip, but I will if you make me.

   >Russian forces are stabilizing their small salient northwest of Avdiivka and may make further tactical gains that could cause Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other tactical positions along the frontline west of Avdiivka to a more defensible line. Geolocated footage published on April 25 indicates that Russian forces advanced into central Solovyove (northwest of Avdiivka) from Novobakhmutivka after likely seizing all of Novobakhmutivka on the night of April 24 to 25. […]

   Bad news from the front, folks. Russia appears to be solidifying gains around Ocheretyne. We still have no confirmation of status from the settlement itself, but we are seeing geolocated footage pop up in the satellite hamlets to the south. [Soloviove is one such settlement.](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Soloviove,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine,+86020/@48.2346797,37.5912749,13.25z/data=!4m10!1m2!2m1!1sSolovyov+ukraine+map!3m6!1s0x40de2befe3b441fd:0x5255d28b12f42e40!8m2!3d48.2244149!4d37.5993949!15sChRTb2xvdnlvdiB1a3JhaW5lIG1hcJIBCGxvY2FsaXR54AEA!16s%2Fg%2F121fl354?entry=ttu) No, I’m not happy about this, but I pledged honesty so here we are.

   I could say these gains don’t matter, but they do on a tactical level. Ocheretyne is the keystone of the next layer of Ukrainian defenses in the Avdiivka direction. Losing the settlement won’t presage a wider collapse, but it will necessitate retreat to the next defensive layer, likely Vozdvyzhenka to the northwest. At least that’s where I’d fall back to if I weren’t able to hold on to Yevhenivka. With Yevhenivka defense of Novooleksandrivka is doable…but without? Ehh…while Novooleksandrivka is large, it’s exposed on three sides and sits in the lowlands. I say fill every septic tank with C4 and laugh as Russians attempt to occupy it under artillery fire.

   >Russian forces will likely continue to make tactical gains nothwest of Avdiivka, but these gains are unlikely to develop into an operationally significant penetration, let alone cause the collapse of the Ukrainian defense west of Avdiivka.

   Yep. I agree with the ISW’s assessment. While this saliant is a pain in the ass, it’s also extremely tenuous. It’s an extension, a solidifying of the Avdiivka gains. Russia will have a real difficult time using it as a jumping off point towards something strategically significant. [Maybe the E0504, but even then there are work arounds. I guess fire control would threaten the logistical route into Chasiv Yar…Prokrovosk and Kostyantynivka would find it real difficult to mutually support each other.]

   [Bit of a stretch, though.](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Kostyantynivka,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine,+85105/@48.3626157,37.4410131,65255m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m15!1m8!3m7!1s0x40de2befe3b441fd:0x5255d28b12f42e40!2sSoloviove,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine,+86020!3b1!8m2!3d48.2244149!4d37.5993949!16s%2Fg%2F121fl354!3m5!1s0x40dfc4233835543d:0xfd04c597d17af786!8m2!3d48.5239429!4d37.7075811!16zL20vMDg4cGR6?entry=ttu)

   >Russian offensive operations west of Avdiivka aim to exploit opportunities for tactical gains while the Russian offensive operation to seize Chasiv Yar offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for operationally significant advances.

   Looking at the situation in Chasiv Yar we see a marginal advance on the outskirts of the settlement. This settlement is geographically structured like a fucking fortress. Russia is reaching into the very first layer of the settlement’s defenses, the outskirts of the city. Think of this as the moat, the easily overcome obstruction which funnels the enemy towards defensive hard points. It’s *just* enough of a threat that the enemy needs to account for it, yet cheap enough to get the gang together and dig in a season. You can even use it as a cesspit in the event of a siege.

   The real investment starts between the two rivers. Use the layout of the land to maximize effective utility of natural chokepoints. Even if the enemy manages to breach beyond that layer, they still need to funnel all passage through those narrow channels. It both enables defense in depth, and allows for focus of resources.

   >Palisa stated that one Ukrainian soldier is currently having to perform the tasks of three to four soldiers and that Russian forces outnumber Ukrainian forces by about five to seven times in the Bakhmut direction. Palisa stated that Russian forces are taking advantage of this numerical superiority by conducting attacks that result in personnel and equipment losses, which Ukrainian forces cannot afford to do.

   This is why construction of strong defenses often enables offensive action. By fortifying, by securing hardpoints, the focus of resources allows for wider reduction in dispersion. You need less to do more, essentially. Those freed up resources can then be allocated into ‘investments’ through either targeted strike against an opponent’s capabilities, or a hit on soft points to further enable the above.

   Advantages compound, both in economics and war. They are one and the same, the same beast, the same entity, and so if you can comprehend capitalism then you can comprehend war. Capitalism *is* survival of the fittest, just as it has always been.

   >Resources exist to be consumed, and consumed they will be. If not by this generation then by some future. By what right does this forgotten future seek to deny us our birthright? None, I say. Let us chew and eat our fill. – [CEO Nwabudike Morgan](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0292917/characters/nm0205318)

   And yet within a breath we see the fundamental shortsightedness inherent in sentiment.

   >Russian forces do pose a credible threat of seizing Chasiv Yar, although they may not be able to do so rapidly.[11] Russian forces are likely attempting to seize as much territory as possible before the arrival of US security assistance significantly improves Ukrainian defensive capabilities in the coming weeks, and the Russian military command may be intensifying offensive operations northwest of Avdiivka because the area provides greater opportunities for making more rapid tactical gains despite the relative operational insignificance of those gains.

   Robbing Peter to pay Paul only works if the result is a net gain. Racing against a clock is always a terrible idea. Unless Russia’s gains enable some marvelous breakthrough, they lack purpose, not even from a tactical perspective. The reason isn’t tactical, because land ultimately means nothings. A town is a town; it can be rebuilt; it’s the people who matter, and those people have long since been evacuated. By failing to see the value of a human life, Putin is committing a grave strategic error, for the net output of a human *is* the very resource we strive to maximize. We are the exponential on the fixed potential of a barrel of potential energy.

   Victory = [Static Resources] ^ ([# of Humans – Losses] * [Per-Capita GDP Output])

   I like big numbers, and Putin is wasting his potential by expending lives when they won’t make a strategically significant gain. His win is to stand still. To deescalate fast, build a many-pronged Surovikhin line and just wait for Xi. The CCP is already drifting in his direction. Yet this chucklefuck keeps attacking.

   I think Putin knows that if he doesn’t win today, then his government will crumble before he gets another shot. That or he’s acting off bad intel. My money’s on the latter.
   !

2. Despite the tactical ‘victories’ of the Russian horde, I am confident in Ukraine’s triumph! It’s a classic struggle of good versus evil, where Russia has shown the world its rotten core!