As the US grows older, is the decline as superpower inevitable? | DW News

Americans are having fewer babies in
fact the birth rate dropped in 2023 to
its lowest level in a century the only
group that saw an increase were women 40
and older it is a trend that began
around the time when I was born and
since the 1970s despite the little bump
we saw during the pandemic it has been
Just One Direction downwards as a result
the United States is aging like never
before a graying superpower now is this
a contradiction in terms are these
demographics dangerous for us power at
home and abroad it is just one of the
problematic realities highlighted in a
new study prepared for the Pentagon to
be released tomorrow the Rand study
focuses on the relative decline in us
standing one that it says is
accelerating it lifts many reasons
including addiction to luxury and
decadence a loss of civic virtue
military overreach as well as
self-centered Elites and environmental
abuse after more than two centuries
after the Pax Americana of the 20th
century is the decline of American power
inevitable almost
preprogrammed well my next guest has
been thinking about the rise and fall of
great Powers he is the lead author of a
new study published in proceedings of
the national academic of Sciences that
suggest countries like their populations
age and the older they get the greater
the probability of their demise I’m
happy to Welcome to the program Martin
schaer he is with the Department of
Environmental Sciences at V kingan
University in the Netherlands Mr schaer
it’s good to have you with us your
investigation it caught it it caught my
attention for for several reasons I mean
you look at the
mortality of States first things first
what do you treat as a state I mean how
far back in history did you go back and
were their shared characteristics of of
all of these
states well States
are very diverse we have looked at
hundreds of states the earliest ones 2
years before Christ and the most recent
ones um starting before the year 1800 so
we have not looked at the Modern States
but we have looked at a very large
collection and and there are large
differences there are small ones big
ones and some U are terminated very very
quickly others were able to pull through
for a millennium or or more so it’s a
very diverse collection but nonetheless
it helped us see see the pattern that
the older States get the more likely it
is that the end comes for a state just
as it does for humans so we we could
show that there is a tendency for States
to become fragile and just like just
like human beings and if I understand it
correctly the states have about the the
same lifespan most of them the same
amount of time before they enter Decline
and I I think it’s what about 200 years
right well yeah but there is a
difference um to to humans so for humans
the probability that you die in any
given year it it goes up increasingly
rapidly as to become older that’s why
none of us become really really very old
uh for States it’s not like that it’s
over the first 200 years they become
increasingly vulnerable and then they
stay more or less equally vulnerable so
so it it’s not as deterministic as it is
with humans some states are actually
able to survive much longer than other
so that’s a difference but they do age
and they do become more vulnerable and
if we bring that then to our pres um and
the post World War II order that has
been directed by the United States the
superpower us it’s about to Mark its
250th birthday in just two years 250
years old would you say that it is now
in a period of stasis or is the US now
living on borrow
time well that’s that’s of course we can
not conclude from the from the our
observations on premodern States but um
one thing you can say is that the United
States are not alone right the the
United States the Constitution was
written I think around the same time as
the French constitution of the French
Revolution so there was um the United
States were very important but the there
was a whole tendency uh around the world
of development away from the feudalism
to um a meritocracy to the industrial
capitalism that we know now and and the
United States are a very prominent
player in that but but then again
they’re not alone and it is a very
different world in the sense that in the
like a thousand years ago or so um a
state could fall and and that was it
usually wouldn’t have major
repercussions um with one exception one
one important period when there was a
cascading collapse of a lot of State the
the so-called late Bronze Age collapse
and now of course we have a a very
connected world so you it it’s a very
different situation
and on the other hand I think the
tensions that that you see Rising are
comparable to those in the past which
you mention like a stressed environment
deterioration of the of the
environmental conditions yeah perhaps
increasing
inequality if you tried to diagnose I I
would assume diagnosing a superpower in
the 21st century of course is different
from diagnosing the condition of
declining power 500 years ago I mean
we’re talking about new threats nuclear
war um artificial intelligence
disinformation these new threats these
new elements would you say they hurt or
help America’s chances of saving itself
in your
opinion H that’s a very hard question
for me to answer of course there is
there is the idea that the nuclear
threat has
helped uh prevent Wars after the second
world
war
um with a risk of course that when
things go wrong they might go very
wellong um I I think what is definitely
true is that we are all more connected
to the world than before and that is
true for the United States it’s true for
the Netherlands where I where I live too
there is
one period uh in
time when when there was such a
connection in the countries around the
the Mediterranean Sea and that is a a
period in which famously there was a
cascading collapse of one state after
the other that was a disastrous period
so so some U archaeologist have have
suggested that we are in a similar
situation and there is the risk for that
cascading failure so to say which we
hope doesn’t happen and you know Mr
schaer before we run out of time one
reason that we learn history is in in
the hopes that we do not have to repeat
it so let me ask you should your paper
do you think should it be required
reading for every lawmaker in the United
States maybe lawmakers
everywhere I think it’s a good idea
because it shows that there is this
tendency to become fragile but it also
shows that it is not inevitable some
some states were able to do something
about it and they could survive and
thrive very long so I think it’s a good
idea to read the paper yeah I’m it’s a
it’s a great read and let’s hope that
the the story we’re in right now has a
happy ending Martin schaer we appreciate
you taking the time to talk with us good
to see you thank you

The US birth rate dropped in 2023 to its lowest level in a century. As a result the United States is aging like never before.
It’s just one of the problematic realities highlighted in a new study prepared for the Pentagon.
The Rand study focuses on the relative decline in US standing, one that is accelerating. It lists many reasons, including addiction to luxury and decadence, loss of civic virtue, military overstretch, self-centered elites and environmental abuse.
DW talks to the lead author of another study that suggests countries – like their populations – age. And the older they get, the greater the probability of their demise.

00:00 Background
01:30 Marten Scheffer, Theoretical biologist

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31 comments

  2. There's a growing sense of neglect towards the younger generation. They face lower salaries, longer work hours, and increased responsibilities while witnessing a surge in billionaires, particularly in countries like Germany.

    The housing market adds to their woes, as property prices soar, making it difficult to afford homes, let alone start families. To compensate, cheap labor from abroad is often favored, leading to frustration among the youth, who feel betrayed.

    People aren't inherently racist, but this frustration arises when governments prioritize external labor over addressing domestic issues. It's high time politicians acknowledge and tackle these pressing concerns rather than resorting to distractions. The younger generation deserves meaningful change. Maybe then people with different life prespective will start to have children.

  8. The longest dynasty, empire, etc is the Tang Dynasty in ancient China, it lasted 700+ years. If you study China Ancient History, Tang Dynasty was the Richest dynasty in ancient China. It empire position was not inheritable by son of empire but by merit of knowledge. It also had a proper tax system which the rich paid tax and the poor was taken care off. The people in closed to 500 years lived well and it was also the growth of culture and many things… yet it ended! America…matter of time.

  9. The ability of our government to adapt to changing circumstances is what makes it powerful.

    Americans die. We're Human — can't be helped. But our COUNTRY will live FOREVER.

  12. Ohh wait AI is coming to give us so much sh… to make & discover that productivity won't be an issue… That is if we don't start WWU first…

  14. Decline NOT because of China.
    It is because, from GZ drama, the whole world realize that U$A is "under" a small country in middle-east.
    Persons in Congress should wear the logo of their sponsors like NASCAR drivers do.

  15. I took a class on the book of Revelations years ago and in this class it was mentioned symbols of America are mentioned in the beginning of the end of days but by the time it came for the later part it was missing.
    The US will not last.

  18. The Us is falling and it’s busy dividing Europe and Asia , the Middle East ,so it can prolong its hegemony , so obvious is there strategy , economic , political and then war

  22. Everitime goverments and "wise men" spout demographics and try to control people it ends in tragedy. If there are no babies, this is how it has to be. If everione is making babies well, let the good times roal.

  24. It would be helpful if in your notes you would indicate the title of Scheffer's paper and how one could get a copy to read.

  25. Make up your mind does the US have a overwhelming problem with immigration or not?
    How is the population of the US ever going down?

  26. I wanted to make another child in 2019 but the bullshiter made me to have one less child, had no money to support my family expences.

  29. I personally don't think America will fail as a super power, but it just won't be the only kid on the block anymore as China and India rise. Our birth rate is balanced by immigration for now, but the military is definitely over taxed. Things are changing though. The people are getting angry. Perhaps America won't be the top dog, but it will still be the main power in North and South America as well as vastly more powerful compared to Europe and Africa. The US enjoyed being the singular power for a while until the Soviet Union came into it's power, and it enjoyed it again as it fell. Countries like China have risen in a similar fashion and I personally predict that China will fall long before the US does. India, however and an African confederacy may be the next competitors.

  30. Location , location, location. If you won the lottery, and were look-
    King to buy a country to live in, the first one the real estate agent would show you would be the United States of America.
    Twain was referring to the erroneous reporting of his death, but he could have been talking about the overreporting of the demise of the United States.
    It's in a wonderful neighborhood, the views are marvelous, and there are some terrific water features, the transport links are excel-lent, and the neighbors? The neighbors are great, no trouble at all.
    If you broke this living space up into numerous sections it would considerably lower its value, especially if the tenants did not all speak the same language and paid the rent in different currencies, but as one home, for one family—it can't be bettered.
    There are fifty American states, but they add up to one nation in a way the twenty-eight sovereign states of the European Union never can.

    Prisoners of Geography

    Tim Marshall

  31. Highly recommend everyone to read 1177 BCE by Eric Cline who discussed the Late Bronze Age collapse in comparison to our time now. An important read

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