Democrats win a New York special election, further narrowing the House GOP’s majority

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/new-york-special-election-win-house-26-district-rcna149581

15 comments

  1. > Democrats will now control 213 seats in the House compared to 217 for the Republicans. Five seats remain vacant.

  2. “B b b but the polls say…”

    Just more proof a blue tsunami is on the way

  3. “But genocide Joe” or “how this is bad for Biden”

  5. This one wasn’t all that close or interesting, as final tallies are putting it as a full 2 to 1 victory in a deep blue district.

    What I’m very interested in seeing is the vote for Kevin McCarthy’s old district CA 20 on May 21. I’ve felt like he’s drastically fallen in popularity in the past few months to years, so if his deep red district, R+16, flips then that’s where things begin to get really bad for Republicans.

    Edit: Nevermind what I said. Apparently it’s already a choice between 2 Republicans, so I guess who gives a fuck about that race now.

  6. dems are gonna lose the house or senate and hopefully not the executive, so its gonna be BS gridlock anyway. Sucks.

  7. So you’re telling me a democrat won in a democrat state and city? Wowza! Next you’ll tell me the sky is blue and water is wet

  8. [Looking here at precinct results](https://special-elections.votehub.us/), some things that stand out:

    * Seeing a lot of 30-40 point leftward swings in maj. White, suburban precincts, almost too numerous to count.
    * Smaller swings in most maj. Black precincts (10-20 points), though that’s because there’s not much more juice to squeeze from there.
    * Precinct containing the Tuscarora Reservation shifted 7 points left, though IIRC they’re not big enough to outvote the non-rez portions of their precinct so it still went for the Republicans.
    * The biggest rightward swing I could find (~39.5 points) came in Buffalo’s Elliot Ward Precinct 15, corresponding to the area bounded by Mills, Sycamore, Walden, and the railroad tracks. From what I can tell looking at online ancestry/ethnicity maps, a good 30% or so list Pakistani, Arab, or Bangladeshi as their ethnicities in the area. Turnout imploded in the area as well, at 8.04% of 2020 presidential turnout (compared to 20.37% districtwide).
    * The most Palestinian-ancestry precinct in the district – North Tonawanda Precinct 2003 – swung 11.37 points rightwards. Granted, they’re only 8% of the population there – and the remainder of the precinct looks to be Western European/American in ancestry – so not much to really accurately read into there. Pity that Lackawanna’s Muslim-heavy neighborhoods are just south of the district’s current boundaries, that’d have been interesting data.
    * In re. universities, Buffalo State University’s precinct (Delaware Ward Precinct 21) had the 2nd highest shift rightwards by my count, at 35.5 points. This is wholly because of turnout, because the precinct cast exactly 4 votes in this election (1.53% of 2020 presidential turnout). Neighboring Delaware Ward Precinct 22 also shifted right, but at a much lower rate (8.3 points, 10.23% turnout rel. to 2020).
    * These trends weren’t repeated at the precinct housing the district’s largest university, the University of Buffalo (~3.7x the size of BSU). UoB’s precinct (Amherst 40th) swung 10 points leftwards, in line with the district as a whole. Turnout there was also comparable to district-wide numbers, at 20.55% of 2020.

  10. Replacing a Democrat, not as impressive as flipping the seat

  11. Good. Keep it coming. Less Republicans means a stronger America.

  13. How does this further narrow the GOP majority in the House, considering that it was already a Democrat seat?

  14. So how does this Gerrymandering work in us. Like any state can change their border and claim it red in their city. Seems very illegal.

Leave a Reply