Keramik Has Fallen | Russian Donetsk Offensive Has Begun | City of Kostyantynivka Is The Target

Keramik Has Fallen | Russian Donetsk Offensive Has Begun | City of Kostyantynivka Is The Target

hello and welcome back to another update
where I covered the latest developments
throughout the front line in the Russi
Ukrainian War we start out in the North
in the direction of klifa where the
Russians have advanced further within
the village of klifa focusing on it
first before moving on to cifka in the
South with the fighting taking place we
see the Russians have now gained control
over the central parts of the village
and will’ll move into the western parts
of it in the coming days where the
Russians look to gain control of it and
take control over fortifications to the
west of it to cut off the supplies to K
Rifka and taking control of that as well
this will force a Ukrainian withdrawal
from cifka or cut them off moving
further south we see here in the
direction of the east of yanola the
Russians have yet again been pushed back
by the Ukrainian advances here in the
area the ukrainians have made three
advances so far the first one to capture
the Northern parts of the forest PCH
second one to push them out of it and
with the third one the ukrainians have
managed to regain some of these Forest
lines and are continuously pushing the
Russians back it seems that the Russians
had either made a withdrawal in this
section of the front line or the Ukraine
simply launched an offensive here to
free up this area from Russian pressure
and allowed the ukrainians to focus on
other sections of the front line like K
lifka in the North or maybe the Russian
simply focused on live the north leaving
this area unattended east of Jar is this
Russian Advance here which allowed the
Russians to gain a foothold here by the
crossing over the canal line according
to footage of fighting taking place in
the area the Russians have managed to
push through the final parts of the
forest patch and move through to the
canal Crossing in the Northern parts
fighting is taking place continuously
within the Forest Area the Russian
arrival by The Crossing itself is a
significant development if the Russians
continuously push and gain full control
over the first patch to secure the
crossing here in the south of gsfr it is
likely that the Russians will start the
offensive operations across the canal
line at the same time with this the
Russians have successfully cut off the
northern and southern Parts which will
allow the Russians to focus on either
side right now either to focus on the
Northern parts here by kinia or simply
make a strong push in the South to
redirect Ukrainian forces and allow them
to then gain control over the Northern
parts the arrival of Russian troops by
the canal allows them to gain multiple
options for what to do next as the
situation has changed in their favor in
the next section of the front line near
otin the Russians have managed to
advance in every direction in the north
of Nova kinova the Russians have fully
captured keramic and moved further
northwards where they have captured this
fortification east of AEL it is clear
that the Russians are now moving in the
direction of ail at the same time
there’s been the small Advance south of
the Ukraine fortifications west of Nova
kinova east of fortina this is an
attempt to storm the fortifications and
push the ukrainians out as the Russians
are pushing towards AEL or it could be
to hold down and prevent a Ukrainian
withdrawal from it for the Russians to
subsequently cut off the supplies to the
north of it so we’re seeing heavy
fighting here by the Nova kova Direction
in the northwest of oena the Russians
are advancing in direction of no
alexanda by advancing in Northern
Direction capturing the fortifications
of the ukrainians east of no Alexandria
with the capture of both of these
fortifications the Russians will then
move on to no Alexandria with a direct
connection between the Russian and
Ukraine positions in the area it could
also be delayed until fighting over akan
is done however it is unlikely as
Russians wants to make use of their
momentum that they have built up in this
section of the front line in the South
by solivo the Russians have advanced
further westwards taking a foothold
within the Ukrainian fortifications
there and capturing a forest line here
to the South this is an advance towards
noow KK as well as in the direction of
suil it is clear that the Russians want
to expand their cent of control west of
solova and Noak matifa in the direction
of the next line of defense of the
Ukrainian Armed Forces with we’re seeing
that the target here by the Russians are
in several directions there is the one
that I’ve been talking about with the
Russians looking to gain control of this
area here west of FD create a buffer
zone and a springboard for an offensive
towards pokrov but it seems that the
Russian priority right now is in a
northernland direction I mentioned in an
analysis that the Russians would likely
launch an offensive towards constantina
from both the South and the east
from the south the Russians would look
to gain control over FKA push in a
Northern direction towards conifa and
flank it from the west and in the East
they would gain control over chvr and
push towards consens Nia the Russians
are currently fighting over chvr and
have captured F Diva since then they
moved in a Northwestern Direction in a
spearhead that spans about 24 kilometers
from the fortifications here north of DK
the 2014 line of contact all the way
towards the novo Alexandria this is
approximately 27 km from poov so they
have captured about half of the distance
between FDF and poov in an indirect
Direction This is through the road going
through from FD all the way through otin
and towards poov however what we do see
is that the Russians are focusing in a
Northern Direction and they’re not
limiting it to a direct strike from at
dka to constantina but are instead
expanding in the Northwestern Direction
it is likely based on this that the
Russians will look to cut off the
highway between constantina and poov
here by the intersection Northwest of no
Alexandria this will allow the Russians
to push through the roads and look to
gain full control over the whole area
Southwest of constantina by gain control
over the highway from FKA as well as the
highway from po
this would be an assault by the Russians
where they will look to expand their
zone of control here west of otina by
the buffer zone that I mentioned
previously and in a Northwestern
direction from otina towards the highway
and then moving from that Highway
direction towards conifa through that
Highway and the surrounding Villages
gaining control over them as well at the
same time pushing northwards from Nova
kinova and through the highway capturing
the Ukrainian fortification in the area
moving further northwards towards
conifa this will allow the Russians to
attack constantina which is in itself
located in a valley which means that
either side would be the high ground
whether it is the South or the North by
Jess y or ofka in both cases the
Russians would be attacking consa from
The High Ground as we see with the
topographic map here chess of yard is
located on the high grounds with an
elevation of about 250 M Conan niif
itself is located at about 85 M and to
the South by the highway there are
locations at about 200 M at closer you
get the low where you go so the Russians
would be attacking conifa from the high
grounds both from the East and from the
south which would give them a
significant Advantage geographically
this analysis was also well explained by
Surak Maps we see both of these pictures
here the first one shows the initial
advances that the Russians would be look
to gain by pushing the ukrainians back
to next line of defense and gain control
over the area west of atin and towards
the intersection by the highway and in
the northern direction from otina and
Nova cinova the second part is this one
here where we see that the Russians
would then push in a Northern direction
towards constantina both through the
highway to the East and the highway to
the West so with this it is clear that
the primary target of the Russians is
not pokrovsk but instead constantina
this will all be in combination with the
assault on jvr what the Russians would
look to push through there as well with
that we see that is that it is clear
that the Russians will be focusing on
the capture of the dbas region the DK
region rather than a larger offensive in
this case isolated And in regards to
this there is this article by The Wall
Street Journal Russia seases Villages
exploiting Advantage gained from
Ukraine’s long waight for Western Aid in
the article they discuss how how the
Russian advances and successes threaten
Ukraine with the collapse of the front
the advance of the Russian army in the
dbest reveal the vulnerability of the
positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
moreover according to analysts there is
a possibility that with further pressure
from the Russian armed forces the
Ukrainian front will collapse based on
this analysis it is now clear that the
Russians will be moving towards
constantina both from the south and from
the East while at the same time the
Russians suff for focusing in an
offensive towards kopans in the north
there is some Ukrainian pressure in the
kmina section of the front line where
the Russians have already created this
buffer zone so there’s no major threat
to Russian positions within the area in
the Civ Direction it is fairly silent
same with the orka direction this could
change with the Russian advances north
of Conan ifka it could be an attempt to
bypass the Ukrainian fortifications by
tetk and New York or could would be an
opportunity where the Russians will look
to push the ukrainians out or capture
these cities and heavily fortified areas
we see that after the initial defensive
lines the Russians would be able to
break through those and be left in an
area that is a large open field before
the next defensive positions which are
much weaker and scarse than what they
are to the South if the Russians do gain
control of those there will be a vast
free area west of constantina and rkka
that is completely undefended and if
they manage to break through the next
line of defense there is no Ukrainian
defensive line there’s no
fortifications on all of these
fortifications in the direction of poos
kator and all of the other areas here to
the West are also fairly newly built
making them weaker than the older
fortifications near the Eastern parts of
Sloans and katos here in the area in
between bmud and those cities so see
that there are areas where heavy
fortifications and heavy density of
Ukrainian troops are available and other
areas where the ukrainians would be left
largely unattended a good reason for
poos being a massive Target in this
section is that it is a supply hub for
the ukrainians in the dnet region and it
is also in an area in which if the
Russians gain control of it and the
surounding fortifications they’ll be
able to push in a Northern Direction
which is largely unattended by the
Ukrainian armed forces and flank the
Ukrainian positions by kosk and slovan
this means if the Russians do use enough
troops in the section of the front line
they may even attempt to attack both
pokrovsk and constantina at the same
time rather than prioritizing one over
the other and that is going to be all
for this update thank you all for
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Map list:

Fortifications: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1HGTwN8Nx6vsl3n8UnsmZnFhonE_ziAU&ll=48.29399452328289%2C36.82465051537984&z=8
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My map: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1Iq3OLZYhIJ3WN5Lrn8jlkCjpY8Cd9uY&ll=47.96907754587772%2C35.85875229999999&z=7
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