“The Russians are definitely beatable, but it needs a coherent approach” I Battle Lines, Podcast

“The Russians are definitely beatable, but it needs a coherent approach” I Battle Lines, Podcast

when we only have an army of 70,000 and
we can’t recruit to it there is
something seriously wrong there are no
shortage of young men and women who want
to join the
Army regardless of who stands with
Israel Israel will fight until this
battle is won I made wartime decisions I
know the choices are never clear or easy
for the leadership I just find bombs and
I find dead people but it’s a really
scary thing for me
I’m David nolles and this is a bonus
episode of battle
lines two years of fullscale warfare in
Europe and a host of emerging conflicts
around the world are giving many
governments pause for thought what
should an army look like in the 21st
century what components or kit should it
have and how much should we be spending
and are we spending
enough Telegraph contributor and former
Soldier heish de Breton Gordon has been
asking these questions for years I
caught up with heish after he attended a
special conference on exactly this
question here’s our conversation well
heish thank you so much for your time
can you start just by explaining where
you’ve been today what events you at yes
hi everybody today I’ve been at rusi the
Royal United Services Institute which is
a one of the more significant military
think tanks and political think tanks in
this country and there an organization
called the new Bley movement H have
produced the paper on what they call the
New Model Army what we need to do they
title it rebuild the Army now to prepare
to prevent to deter War and the sort of
people involved in it a very significant
across the spectrum of military academic
political and civil servant so led by
Lord Robinson George Robinson who was
defense secretary and then head of NATO
Sir Richard Baron’s former fourstar
Commander
Professor Michael Clark used to be head
of rusi also a number of journalists
people like Deborah Haynes from the from
Sky number of other generals Lord David
Richards who used to be the chief of the
dent staff General Sir Richard shareif
who used to be Deputy commander of NATO
and Lord Mark sedwell who was the former
cabinet secretary National Security
advisor so a a wide look at people and
really the exam question they were asked
is where are we with defense and really
what do we need to do to have a credible
Army as in landbased deterrent going
forward given everything that’s
happening around us well let’s start
that discussion then from your
observations in of this meeting can we
start by talking about uh as you’ve
described it threat threat perception
the the threat perspective of Britain’s
place in the world and what our allies
and our say geopolitical Rivals are
doing where are we in
2024 the the threat picture is is
multifaceted I only reported the other
day about the 36th anniversary of the
halabja gas attack in Northern Iraq when
Saddam Hussein basically tried to
eradicate the Kurdish race with chemical
weapons fight kill 5,000 people on the
21st of March
1988 it was not it was another 15 years
before we got rid of Saddam Hussein
using British tanks which no longer
exist then we had the tarant president
Assad in Syria supported by the Iranians
again actually using chemical weapons
but killing thousands of civilians
supported by the Iranians but actually
still in power both the halabja gas
attack and what happened in Syria we
turned a blind eye now we still have
those threats in the Middle East what I
would say and I think what we discussed
at Rus is that they are horrific but
they’re not really immediate what the
main threat is and I think maybe it’s
people like me so-called experts are not
explaining it clearly enough to the
people of this country that we have a
modern-day Hitler a tyrant in Europe
determined to Head West uh with No
Boundaries now he has been elected by
allegedly 87 and a half% of his people
who wants to uh basically redraw the
Soviet Union Borders or Peter the Great
as he likes to sort of frame himself of
dominating Europe and that is the most
immediate thing and he is spending 6% of
his gross domestic product on defense he
is turning his tractor factories into
tank factories basically he’s he is
conducting what we’d call a total war
the whole economy is focused on the war
and the people 600,000 troops in Ukraine
at the moment and more to come and back
fill it and that is the threat to us
it’s not the thousands of miles away in
in the Middle East or the Far East it’s
the hundred of miles away in Europe and
that is the perspective and that’s where
we look at it so when we look at our
defense
deterrent our nuclear deterrent in my
opinion is highly effective and has done
his job but our conventional deterrent
has not and really since the end of the
Cold War we have let it Drift We focused
on being able to project maritime power
at Great distance we have two wonderful
aircraft carriers that cost I don’t know
the thick end of 10
billion sometimes they work sometimes
they don’t but they were there or they
are there to project power in in the Far
East and the high seas we have capable
Air Force Air power predominantly to
protect the their Homeland but we’re
also seeing them now attacking the
houthis interestingly enough not using
aircraft carriers but but using some of
our basis so when we come to what the
real threat is we’ discussed in Europe
we have our land force and that is what
has been allowed to drift what’s been
hollowed out what’s been underinvested
really since the end of the Cold War so
is no longer a to darant to Putin and
it’s it is something that we really need
to get very quickly because if not and
if things like if if Trump is elected
which is look increasingly likely if
what he’s saying at the moment he does
and that’s not a guarantee by any means
but if he creates Fortress America at
the cost of stopping or holding Putin in
Europe then we are going to be fighting
you know in the fields and ditches and H
RS of Europe but at the moment we don’t
have the capability to do that you’ve
mentioned it briefly there it might be
good to speak a little bit more about
that because the event you’re describing
is obviously sort of a meeting of the
Great and the good of the British
defense space you mentioned sort of one
potentially unreliable Ally if the
election of President Trump does
happen how else would you characterize
and how else did this event characterize
our or Britain’s allies and friends
around the world where is to what extent
is do you think people are sort of
waking up to this idea that um maybe
NATO isn’t the most reliable stop Gap
that we have maybe there maybe we should
be looking out for our own if I can put
it as bluntly as that yeah know that
that is a really good point and I think
um we also have unreliable allies in
Europe part of NATO um and certainly the
Germans are are of a concern to us but
they have the capacity to turn that
around the French tend to be ambiguous
beginning of the war macron is appeasing
Putin he he’s now he’s now trying to
attack him and his boots on the ground
in Ukraine thing has really got people
going I actually think he’s he’s right I
think Putin should at least think that
we might put boots on the ground in
Ukraine but yeah the NATO with the US
driving it Forward is not necessar
something we can guarantee Beyond
November so I think it’s very much that
we need to look at the four structures
in Europe the addition of the fins and
the swedes is very positive they are
very capable they have the potential to
turn their regular Force which is
relatively small about about the same
size as our British force in to a hugely
larger Force supported by conscription
and reserves over a million fins are
trained and ready to go if we look at
our own case you know we’re we’re
talking in the not even the tens of
thousands so I think there there there
is the the the um the hardware and and
also the the Manpower in Europe to be
able to do this but the critical role
that Britain should play and we we we
have catch up to do a lot of people in
in Europe are still very sore about the
the whole brexit debate a lot of people
are are are very um concerned about that
Britain can easily sit back on our
little island and and let the Europeans
fight it out with with the Russians what
we don’t have in in hard power as it
were that is tanks and all the rest of
it we still have in the I think in the
leadership and command and conceptual
role and I think that is what we were
discussing today is that Britain really
needs to step forward there we still
have the ability to bring people and
forces together and to help command and
control them this is one of the
weaknesses in a way that or one of the
things that Ukraine is slightly
suffering from the bravest men in the
women in the world they’ve got the kit
they need more ammunition what they’re
lacking sometimes is the ability to put
it all together and fight not in what I
call onesies and twoes but fight as a
cohesive force now that is no fault of
their own this is something that NATO
has been training at for very for years
and years but axiomatically at the
moment we in Britain can do it on a
Blackboard if you like in a classroom
and we have still have great thinkers
and know know how to do it but we don’t
have the hardware to do it conversely of
course people like the fins and the
swedes have the hardware but not
necessarily the experience tie it
together and that’s really where we
think Britain comes in still in that
role but in order to have our seat at
the table we need to have mass we need
to have a credible land Force to put
down there in what we call the first
Echelon the first Echelon is that is
your regular highly professional force
that really meets the enemy first and if
they don’t succeed you then need to
follow on and we’ve seen that in Ukraine
we’ve seen it with the Russians the
Russian first Echelon the Russian Elite
Force was all destroyed and killed
within about eight months which is now
why all their really appear to be doing
is throwing Manpower into the meat
grinder and lots of dumb ammunition and
all the rest of it so the Russians are
definitely beatable but it needs a
coherence approach and there is a
feeling that Britain can do this but is
not really configured to do it and
certainly there doesn’t seem to be the
political will or the financial backing
to make it happen but if it doesn’t and
there is a view that possibly Ukraine
might fall to this summer and tying in
what that’s happening in the states then
if we don’t get onto this now then we we
could be back to fighting in the fields
in Europe soon well let’s get into the
some of the detail then I think if if we
were to remake the British army I mean
as you mentioned you said we’ve got very
good Maritime capabilities very good
very good Air Force it’s the
conventional land forces that need work
what is what could the proposals be what
might that look like what should do you
think the British be the British should
be investing in there any new
capabilities things we might have
learned for example from the Ukraine war
or elsewhere what new things might we
see in a buildup of of conventional arms
and and Personnel in the British army
there are an awful lot of things we
could discuss it I’ll try and keep it to
what I think are really the most
important elements we look at first of
all is what what we call the people side
of it the Mana the men and women in the
Army now it is very clear and people
have written in the paper and I’ve
written for the telegraph recently about
the the lack of investment in our in in
in the people in the military and go
into the details but that they are the
most important part of this but when we
only have an army of 70,000 and we can’t
recruit to it there is something
seriously wrong there are no shortage of
young men and women who want to join the
Army but um the way that the recruiting
is going is just crazy and actually if
you want to increase that as we probably
need to then you know you we have really
fundamentally got to look at our our
people first they’re the most valuable
asset but at the moment they are not
being valued with terms and conditions
of service
accommodation and everything else that
goes with it and recruiting I mean the
recruiting is an absolute disaster that
that you know it takes 18 months for a
young boy or girl from expressing an
interest to getting into the army now my
own son is 23 to him that’s a lifetime
and I know so many of his friends and
and children of friends of mine who’ve
given up and gone to do other things
because of that so I think we have to
sort out the whole the the people in the
military then comes on to capabilities a
lot of the capabilities are are the same
we just don’t have very much when I was
a tank commander in the first Gulf War
we we had I think 500 tanks on the
inventory we now have about a 100 of
which probably a 30% we could put in the
field so and that that’s a whole issue
about the logistics support and
everything else cuz we’ followed things
out in order to have a credible land
Army I think most people would agree and
I would agree we need to be able to put
what we call an Armored Division into
field what we did in both Gulf Wars
basically and that gives us along with
the other armored divisions from the
other NATO countries gives us the punch
and power to be able to Prevail against
the Russians the second bit is kit I
mean everybody is talking about drones
and drones are changing they’re not
they’re changing they’re not changing
the battlefield they’re changing the way
we fight H and you know fresh in my mind
as I start to write a book about tanks
when if I was a tank commander in combre
in November 1917 I’d be in the i i as a
tank officer would be out the front with
an ashplant checking the ground it was
all right for the tank today’s tank
commanders have a drone doing that at
combre in the first World War I had a
spotter in an air balloon finding
targets today I’ve got a drone that’s at
Target end so it’s lots and lots of
drones and the the interesting thing
about drones is again mass is important
one of the discussions we had at rusi
today is actually does this drone
Warfare does that mean we we need to
create a new service if you like in
simple terms we have the Army the Navy
and the Royal Air Force we also now talk
about space and cyber but do we need a
drone Force because everything is so
much detailed to it and of course the
British military have drones but
predominantly our drones are big and
expensive I think a Reaper drone I think
costs about 10 to 15 million but it’s in
the
millions you know very capable but if
you lose one of those you lose one what
we’ve seen in in in Ukraine is these
sort of $500 drones and and a drone
fires a Hellfire missile that will
destroy a tank but a $500 drone will
drop a hand grenade through a hatch
which destroys a tank if you lose a $500
drone nobody’s too fast you lose a $15
million drone and again it’s and the the
difficulty with all this is the
procurement cycle the length of it so
those drones I and I was as an Army
intelligence officer in Afghanistan back
in 20072 2008 we were introduced ucing
the first drones into service and they
those same drones or or new variations
are what we rely on now you know 15
years down the line and it’s that
flexibility to change so it’s drone is
going to be a key thing of course the
electromagnetic spectrum as well and the
whole cyber and it stuff which again is
you know all who controls the
electromagnetic spectrum has a
significant advantage and it’s as we’ve
discussed on the Pod before you know
it’s it’s no surprise that the Russians
have a lot of what we call ew electronic
warfare assets at the front because they
know if they can jam those drones or
those missiles then that is a lot easier
than trying to knock them out of the sky
so there are a whole host of issues and
slightly going back to the Manpower
thing you don’t you know a a a soldier
of today doesn’t necessarily need to be
6’6 and be a to lift heavy weights yeah
you still need those sort of people but
not not necessarily and again you I
expect there a lot of young boys and
girls out there who who don’t consider
themselves a career in the Army for them
but actually you know they some of the
very clever dare I say geeky without
wanting to upset somebody absolutely the
people we need so it’s looking at is in
the whole and the challenge with all
this and people say you know why are
these old generals and politician and
others getting involved here I mean one
of the things of hollowing out your
military is that you hollow out a lot of
the bits that are actually looking at
the future and capability and force
generation the academic Academia if you
like I remember when I was I I was sort
of leaving the Army and I secured a
place at Cambridge to do an M an MSC and
I was told go you don’t want to waste
your time doing that you need to be
soldiering now sort of 10 years later as
a Cambridge academic I can see I should
have said absolutely this is the best
use of my time so I think it’s a whole
variety of stuff whole variety of
capabilities but it needs people looking
at in depth and I think the current
military just doesn’t have the resource
or time or I suppose in a way the the
energy to do it the the outgoing chief
of the general staff Patrick Saunders
you know has had a sort of go good go at
it but has got us slating from you
actually a lot of people really don’t
know what they’re talking about and it
really goes back to the premise that we
we started with that defense is not a
political issue a lot of people in this
country don’t see it as a significant
issue they would prefer to have cheaper
bread and a a couple of degrees off the
planet and they’re writing away but
unfortunately if that means that Putin
prevails in Europe all all that other
stuff could be become horrifically
irrelevant just a couple of questions
before we finish everything you’re
describing I mean this is slightly
amateur history from me but a Britain
with a highly professional Army which is
quite small which doesn’t have the sort
of the capability to put more than at
least 70,000 100,000 men in the field at
any one time is this slightly Back to
the Future it sounds like we’re
describing I mean this sounds analogous
to prew World preor War I is that is is
is that fair do do you think maybe we
haven’t learned these lessons from
because because that’s something the
British army had to do in the first
world war is to spin up the ability to
train and to re-equip and do everything
like that absolutely it’s somebody lot
brighter than me said there’s nothing
new it’s just stuff we’ve forgotten it’s
the same with the first world war the
same with the second world war lots of
people saying we’re at 1939 or 1938
we’re seeing this Tyrant develop and
we’re really there is no inertia or
there is too much inertia we we’re doing
nothing we’re not creating I and I think
it goes back to to belief absolutely we
are in that position you know because if
we have to fight in Europe as they did
in in 1914 we’ll be in exactly the same
position we will get all the old
soldiers in there and you know do what
we can chop people to the front a bit
like Ukraine’s done and and it’ll be
about holding on long enough till the
second Echelon can come through and it
was the same in it’s actually absolutely
the same 1939 and 1914 so yeah that
absolutely we are repeating
mistakes but the glory to that is well
if there were no resources issues we
could afford not to repeat these
mistakes but it’s very difficult for
somebody like me to say there’s somebody
who can’t afford to eat three Square
meals a day that actually you need to
pay a bit more tax so we can have a a
few more tank rounds and conversely
those when we see these determined young
young and not just so young you know
gluing themselves to the road because
they’re worried about climate change I I
absolutely sort of get that but it then
me saying well why worry about climate
change that’s going to affect the planet
in a 100 years time or or fundamentally
affected in the 100 years time where
actually we could all be at War next
year and and if a few nukes go bang then
you know climate change will be
irrelevant so there are so many
competing things yes we’re repeating
mistakes unfortunately that’s human
nature final question do you think
anybody in power is listening sadly I
don’t think they are I think it’s the
politics is something that I dabbled
with a few years ago I I was under the
misconception that 650 best people in
this country were politicians and you
know without wanting to sound overly
harsh I’ve now learned that is not the
case and unfortunately politicians are
are human and at the moment all parties
are looking at how they’re going to get
elected in November or whenever it is
and defense is not there when I I had a
fascinating
conversation with with a a director of
the campaign for nuclear disarm
yesterday bizarrely we thought the same
I
abh nuclear weapons so does she she
doesn’t think we have a viable
conventional defense and we should do
and I agreed with her but what she said
fundamentally young people in this
country do not view defense do not think
that there is any chance that they’re
going to have to fight for their lives
um in Europe uh as their forbears have
done for generation and Millennia and on
that basis and on a political we’re now
on this political Pathway to an election
with defense not up there I really fear
nothing is going to change until I hope
that Putin will be held and we must do
all we can to do that but if he prevails
I don’t think and I don’t think anybody
who’s looking at this seriously believes
he’s going to stop at Ukraine and if the
moment he steps one foot beond Ukraine
we’re all involved thank you very much
heish
pleasure that’s all for battle lines
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On this bonus episode of Battle Lines we speak to Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon about the state of the army in 2024. What should an army look like in the 21st century? What equipment is needed? How much should countries be spending?

Contributors
David Knowles (Host) @djknowles22 on X.
Hamish Stephen de Bretton-Gordon OBE @HamishDBG on X

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