Brexit means Poles will be richer than Britons in five years, claims Donald Tusk

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/02/donald-tusk-poland-brexit-gdp-per-capita-world-bank-eu/

by TheTelegraph

31 comments

  1. ***The Telegraph reports:***

    Poles will be richer than Britons in five years’ time because of Brexit, Donald Tusk, the prime minister of Poland, has said.

    Mr Tusk was European Council president during the Brexit negotiations and was notorious among Brexiteers for his scathing criticism of the decision to leave the EU.

    He referred to a Labour forecast based on World Bank data that said Poland would outstrip the UK in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by 2030.

    “A fierce debate is taking place in Great Britain caused by the World Bank’s forecast that GDP per capita will be higher in Poland than in the UK in 2025,” Mr Tusk said on the 20th anniversary of Poland’s membership of the EU.

    “And I promise this: on the 25th anniversary, Poles will be richer than the British. It’s better to be in the EU,” he said on social media on Wednesday.

    Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, in February used the World Bank data to bolster his arguments for a change of government at the next election.

    The Office for National Statistics estimated the Polish-born population of the UK was 691,000 in 2020. The most spoken non-native language in Britain is Polish and it is estimated almost a million Poles lived in the UK before the 2016 Brexit referendum.

    **Read more:** [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/02/donald-tusk-poland-brexit-gdp-per-capita-world-bank-eu/](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/02/donald-tusk-poland-brexit-gdp-per-capita-world-bank-eu/)

  2. >Mr Tusk referred to World Bank forecasts which show that GDP per capita in 2021 was £36,038 ($44,979) in Britain and £27,974 ($34,915) in Poland.

    So by 2029 (in 5 yrs), there will be a $10k increase in the GDP per capita for Poles and that will bring it level to UK’s per capita GDP in 2021 (assuming UK’s per capita GDP stays the same as 2021 in 2029). Interesting, I will definitely be keeping an eye on this, being fully aware of what WB forecast are like…..

  3. “He referred to a Labour forecast based on World Bank data that said Poland would outstrip the UK in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by 2030.”

    And how will GDP per capita translate to personal income?

  4. Got to be hard since minimal British wage is around polish average wage

  5. As a Pole, I have some serious doubts, but keep my fingers crossed

  8. Personally i think, as an high income earner, is already worth it going to Poland:

    B2B contracts for IT: 12.5% tax rates, or 5% IP box

    salaries around 30-40k pln

    much lower cost of living – i don’t spend more than 4kpln, counting with rent

    Much higher presence of remote jobs compared to the UK

    I love Poland, the lifestyle is a bit “gluten free bread” but for sure has a future and i want to be part of it.

  9. Poland borders a huge nation of jealous peasants in Russia. Of course putin couldn’t let Ukraine be yet another example of how shit Russia is

  10. And Britain tried to oust “Eastern Europeans”. Ahahaha. GL on your journey Poland, you will do it 👊

    Greetings from Germany 🇩🇪

  11. Richer no, but definitely Poland will be one of the leaders in the EU.

  13. So Brexit suddenly means that all these African , Latin and Middle Eastern dictators/ oligarchs and business men,

    Will suddenly move all their billions from London to Warsaw?

    The very latest numbers also suggest a bounce in the UK economy, and the Polish population is not exactly a very young one , since they did not like immigration…

    So in a few years, after the whole defense investment thing is done,

    What will be the main growth sectors of Poland? Because I’m not getting it to be honest…

  14. Doubt it, UK is still ahead of France in most sources for GDP per capita

  15. I also think there’s something nice about being somewhere where things are getting better each year vs worse, regardless of where you are sitting at that moment.

  16. Looking forward to see all the British plumbers moving to Warsaw

  17. Keep dreaming

    Too bad people still take what politicians say as truth LOL

  18. Considering Britain is richer than Spain, Italy and France and is still the second richest nation in Europe…

    He’s basically saying he thinks in 5 years Poles will be at least the second richest nation in Europe.

    I’m pro- European but a bit weird to single out Britain and claim Brexit will be the cause of that, when Brexit has happened, and Britain still is the second richest country worth $3 trillion while Poland has yet to even reach $1 trillion.

    Even considering Poland’s population is about half of Britains, the average Pole holds a third of the wealth of the average Brit.
    So you’d need China level growth figures over longer than 5 years, while Britain stagnates or goes into recession for Poland to catch up and beat it.

  19. A colleague of mine always refers to the UK as “the Djibouti of Europe”. And although that is not a very nice thing to say, it does kind of tell you how the UK is not the thriving and wealthy country they would like you to think it is. And knowing that, it is not such a weird thought that sooner rather than later Poland would be able to do better because they, unlike the UK, are part of the EU.

  20. shitty UK and Poland great seems to hit both nations in the right spot, spreading the meme

  23. Tusk is a huge Anglophile who cried when the Uk left the EU. He sincerely loves the UK more than any Brexiter.

    Brexiters are nationalists – they think their country is best no matter what it does. They will never criticise it.

    Patriots are people who want their country to be the very best version of itself, and if criticising it improves it – then that’s what they’ll do.

  25. I mean, they’re probably not far off already.

    Things are a bit shit here.

  26. Not that this statement alone does not mean Polish people will become richer 🙂

  27. While it’s a nice pipe dream, in order for this to happen they need to avoid the middle income trap.

    “The middle-income trap refers to a situation whereby a middle-income country is failing to transition to a high-income economy due to rising costs and declining competitiveness. Few countries successfully manage the transition from low to middle to high income”

  28. He’s the leader of Poland. If he can’t deliver that I hope the people hold him to account.

  30. Some optimistic Maths here, average Polish salary currently : £18.4k pa, Polish average real wage growth since Brexit (seeing as argument is Brexit based) 1% pa. UK current average salary £35k pa, UK average real wage growth since Brexit 1-2% pa. Not only is UK salary twice as high it’s also growing faster (when adjusted for inflation).

    If by rich he means actual wealth held by citizens then median for UK is 151k, Poland is 20k, not much need for 5 year predictions here.

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