https://www.ft.com/content/27568219-a5e0-4ff9-a95a-d7d202bfca80
Sinn Féin struggles to keep ‘angry vote’ after referendum loss
Populist party soared in polls but has leached support to small anti-immigration rivals
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald was heckled by far-right, anti-immigration protesters after the results of a constitutional referendum on Saturday.
Sinn Féin surged to become Ireland’s most popular party by channelling discontent. But now it is struggling to keep the support of angry voters.
The anti-establishment party, which is committed to Irish reunification, backed the losing side in two government referendums on changing the constitution, which flopped spectacularly last week. An exit poll showed that the “no” vote from its supporters was the highest of any party.
Even before the referendum debacle, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald was under pressure. After its promises to fix Ireland’s acute housing crisis made it the favourite to lead the next government, the populist party has fallen in opinion polls ahead of general elections due by March 2025.
“I think [the referendum] gives both the government and established opposition parties pause for thought,” said David Farrell, professor of politics at University College Dublin. “Where does the angry vote go?”
Some of Sinn Féin’s core working-class voter base has leached to small independent parties in recent months, including fringe groups opposed to immigration in a country with no mainstream far-right party.
As the results of Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s proposed constitutional amendments came in on Saturday, McDonald was even heckled as a “traitor to Ireland” by far-right, anti-immigration protesters.
Sinn Féin had criticised the controversial proposals to redefine the family and carers and delete references to a woman’s “life” and a mother’s “duties” within the home as too timid.
It backed them in the end as better than nothing. But voters disagreed, objecting to the government’s decision to leave the responsibility for care squarely with families, as well as to a woolly proposed definition of the family and the removal of references to women and mothers from the constitution.
Sinn Féin has been riding high in the polls since overtaking Varadkar’s Fine Gael in late 2020. Support hit a peak of 36 per cent in 2022 but has since fallen to 28 per cent.
The party remains by far the most popular political grouping in Ireland and made history in Northern Ireland last month when Michelle O’Neill became the first nationalist first minister in a region designed to remain a permanent part of the UK when it was created by partition in 1921.
But the path to power for the once-shunned mouthpiece of Irish Republican Army paramilitaries now looks more rocky. One dilemma for Sinn Féin is how to straddle a varied base of support, which spans young liberals as well as more socially conservative working-class voters.
While the party has dominated the debate over how to fix the housing crisis, far-right protesters have also zeroed in on the issue, protesting outside — and even burning — sites earmarked by the government to lodge asylum seekers.
“Sinn Féin has very strong support among young people, but they tend to be very liberal on immigration,” said Gail McElroy, professor of political science at Trinity College Dublin. “That’s a difficult demographic bridge to build.”
McDonald has also made mis-steps recently, including calling for the justice minister’s resignation after riots in Dublin whipped up by the far-right in November but then losing a vote on the issue.
As the election nears, Sinn Féin will also face more scrutiny on its tax plans, including a proposed wealth tax. It has also promised a referendum on Irish reunification within 10 years — but only the UK can call a vote, and only if there is a big shift in public opinion in Northern Ireland in favour of unity.
McElroy said the government’s family and care referendum debacle was in part a protest vote. Fine Gael has been in power since 2011 in various coalitions and a stream of its legislators are planning to step down.
Sinn Féin leader eyes power in Ireland after wilderness years
Local and the government might seek to capitalise on Sinn Féin’s recent falls and call a general election in June. Most still expect an autumn poll.
Losing referendums in Ireland has not been a harbinger of doom in general elections in the past, but Varadkar looked contrite as he admitted defeat, standing in Dublin Castle in front of a painting of a choppy sea.
But for Sinn Féin, it will also not be plain sailing. “It was an easier task when the election was quite far out,” said Farrell. “People are starting to zoom in on them much more.”
by _BornToBeKing_