Counting will begin in the London Mayor and London Assembly election on Saturday 4th May.

As the results come out, I will be updating this post. There'll be another announcement thread when the result is confirmed and certified. Comments below sorted by new! Feel free to chip in with opinions, news coverage, posts, etc.

Mayor of London

Mayoral elections are now first past the post. The candidate with the most votes totalled across all 14 constituencies wins the Mayoralty for four years.

We'll give the numbers for the top two or three candidates for each constituency when they're certified. It's possible that at some point, it will be mathematically impossible to beat the leading candidate, so we'll let you know if that happens.

BBC Tracker (which is different to the below, because I'm watching the declaration live stream announce each constituency, whereas they have people on the ground getting live tallies).

Constituency Turnout Result (Top 2) Swing
Barnet & Camden 39.59% TBA
Bexley & Bromley 48.38% TBA
Brent & Harrow 37.09% TBA
City & East 31.17% TBA
Croydon & Sutton 42.27% TBA
Ealing & Hillingdon 42.98% TBA
Enfield & Haringey 41.38% TBA
Greenwich & Lewisham 40.33% Khan (LAB) 46.5%, Hall (CON) 26.2% 4.5% from CON to LAB
Havering & Redbridge 42.94% TBA
Lambeth & Southwark 39.13% TBA
Merton & Wandsworth 45.99% Khan (LAB) 48.3%, Hall (CON) 28.6% 5.1% from CON to LAB
North East 39.57% Khan (LAB) 61.7%, Hall (CON) 16.5% 6.9% from CON to LAB
South West 45.26% TBA
West Central 34.98% Khan (LAB) 43.6% , Hall (CON) 34.7% 5.2% from CON to LAB
TOTAL 40.50% TBA

London Assembly

There are 25 seats up for grabs, 14 constituency seats and 13 London-wide top-up seats.

The Assembly works on Proportional Representation, so parties will get a London-wide top-up seat if their share of the vote would grant them more seats than they actually win on a constituency basis.

We'll give the constituencies won as they're declared but won't be able to calculate the top-up seats until all constituencies are declared.

Party Seats Won Constituencies Won Change
Labour 1 Merton & Wandsworth
Conservatives
Lib Dems
Greens
Reform
Others

Please note that as an amateur election watcher, I occasionally make mistakes. Do not take my numbers as absolute truth – you can check them yourself from source if you need.

by ianjm

40 comments

  2. I was not allowed to vote because I didn’t bring ID. I didn’t have time to go back home and get it. I wonder how many people were denied a vote by this.

  4. Big turnout in anti ulez areas, weak turnout in the inner city.

    Squeaky bum time for khan.

  5. I’d be so happy with a 5% win. But at this point I feel like even a 1% win would be a relief.

  6. Is there an ETA on the mayor announcement? I kind of figured it would be done by now…

    Edit: officially 1:30 according to another commenter 

  9. There is anecdotal evidence that, as in Birmingham and parts of the NW, some Muslim voters are abstaining (or voting Green or for other parties) because of Labour’s stance on Gaza, in particular Starmer’s initial response to the crisis. This, coupled with a high ‘anti-ULEZ’ turnout, could easily lead to Susan Hall winning (he says through gritted teeth), albeit with a plurality rather than a majority. It looks as if we shall have to take some deep breaths and get used to the idea.

    This election has shown how divided we are as a city. I hope that whoever wins will reach out beyond her or his base (‘her or his’ because I am anticipating Susan!).

  12. Hall has it. Muslim vote stay home boycott and outer London ULEZ revolt PLUS first past the post.

    The irony of the Muslim vote kicking the Muslim mayor of London out would be hilarious if the consequences weren’t so dismal.

  13. If hall does win it’ll be a fucking disaster. She’s so far out of her depth it’s scary.

    Fuck the Tories, and fuck starmer for not wanting to touch electoral reform.

  14. Has Labour said anything about reverting to supplementary voting for mayoral elections? Another sneaky Tory change

  15. A Susan hall
    Victory will hard to digest . The right wing media will be having a good times if that happens

    Not sure what kind of messed up timeline we living where Susan “oyster” Hall is the London Mayor

  16. The only real hope is the tory votes have been divided amongst the other Lunatics on the ballot.

    There was a “stop the woke” candidate on the pamphlet that made my eyes roll so hard I thought they’d pop out of my skull.

  17. Interesting that on the betting markets Hall is flying outwards. From 7/1 this morning to 13/1 now. 

    Given that insiders in Betfair felt that the turnout changes wouldn’t be enough for Hall with Reform stealing a tiny bit of her share. I wonder if there’s been any indication. 

  18. Susan Hall winning would feel like a local version of Liz Truss. Is there a way to kick the mayor out (hypothetically)?

  19. > Not a single person I’ve spoken to in either party thinks Hall will win today. If she does, they will be shocked. Not long to wait now.

    From BBC chief political correspondent. 

  20. Two constituencies have now declared. Both results show a large swing to Khan compared with his result against Shaun Bailey in 2021.

    **Merton and Wandsworth**

    2024: Khan – 84725, Hall – 50097

    2021: Khan – 76403, Bailey – 59460

    5.1% swing from Conservative to Labour

    **Greenwich and Lewisham**

    2024: Khan – 83792, Hall – 36822

    2021: Khan – 76731, Bailey – 43306

    4.5% swing from Conservative to Labour

  21. Merton’s gone to Khan!! I was worried because of the ULEZ expansion, but that’s great!

  22. Thank you OP for putting this thread up! Faster reporting and results than the news outlets

  23. Op can you add ward sizes (* turnout) to the table so we know how much of the total vote share is in each borough.

  24. Really appreciate you doing this OP! 👍 Hard to find similar info in one place.

  25. Thanks for the effort you’re putting into this! Really good breakdown! Thank you

  26. Who the fuck is voting for that lunatic Susan Hall? Who saw her interviews and thought…yeah that’s who I want.

    What I’m really interested in & unfortunately will be impossible to find out is how many people WANTED to vote but couldn’t because they don’t have ID & didn’t bother getting it or registering for postal voting

  27. 140/1 on Betfair at the moment for any pessimistic individuals who want a safety blanket.

  28. Can we have 3rd place in the results too? It’s only 72% for those 2 so there’s a big chunk to ignore.

    Nice sticky thread though

    Edit: maybe include count binface too regardless of position

  29. Come on London dont fuck this up!

    Let’s give Sunak a good kick

  31. Ok those results so far are a very good sign for khan but we’ll have to see some properly outer London results (eg Bexley and Bromley, or Havering and Redbridge) to get a full idea of whether he’s definitely won

  32. Looks comfortable for Khan based on first results. Can’t imagine a high enough swing and turn out for him to lose. I think there should be a 2 term max limit for mayors though.

  33. Brent and Harrow will end up Tory, Susan nutter hall is from Harrow. Similar for Barnet and a few others Bexley.

  34. Out of interest are you calculating the swing %s vs the first pref votes or first pref + second pref? 

    Edit: also thank you for doing this, it’s an amazing tracker

  35. When are results being released because I assumed that it was being released at 1:30

  36. Odds seem to be shortening quite fast? I suppose a lot of people are suddenly trying to capitalise on Hall’s odds just in case.

  37. Another 5.2% swing to Labour

    All of this Hall fear mongering I’ve read in here in the last day or so is aging like fucking milk

  40. Seen some rumours suggesting that Khan has actually won in Bexley & Bromley as well. Would be absolutely peak for the anti ooolez crowd

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