Ukraine Has CRUSHED Russian Attack in Ocheretyne!

Ukraine Has CRUSHED Russian Attack in Ocheretyne!

Russia’s attack near Ultra datina seems to have come to a conclusion but is that just a small part of Russia’s Grand Ambitions for 2024 I’m Paul US Army Combat veteran we’re going to talk about just how Ukraine stopped this attack but more importantly how they can stop Russia’s eye popping Ambitions for the rest of the year let’s get into it okay first taking a look at the control map the number one most important area that we want to talk about in the last uh 24 hours or so you can see here last update is no update for the first time we haven’t really seen any substantive progress we’ve seen a little bit of Russian consolidation as Russia consolidates this roadway here again this is probably more a reflection of Ukrainian forces is simply withdrawing there’s nothing to hold here right this is a road that connects a Russian controlled town to a Russian controlled Town there’s no reason to lose Personnel fighting this so Ukrainian forces likely withdrawing and probably occupying more defensible regions likely in this soill region probably on the west side of this water formation right you can see here it literally appears to be forming a sort of little defensive perimeter that likely is uh keeping the Russians at Bay you can literally see them not wanting to get too close to this uh River formation and the town of soill as well as Vol scod and yav nka uh and and you could see why right this is great it’s it’s got an obstacle here a little crescent um that’s going to be really hard for infantry units to cross uh it also has a town uh and a protected roadway here with a lot of uh forested area uh so it’s a really tough little rount to try to take um I think Ukraine Russians likely realize that this is a tough nut to crack and they probably don’t have the uh capabilities at this point to crack it given the strength of Ukrainian reinforcements again I think you’re still going to see this Salient around Ultra Ina uh Ukraine’s going to withdraw from it they may try to bring these forces back to Ark and heski but they’re much more likely I think to occupy uh positions north of this Cova and North more critically of this Reservoir Canal system that’s just a a huge defensive perimeter that really is just almost too good to pass up for Ukrainian forces so again I wouldn’t we may see continued Russian territorial control but it’s not going to be a result of Russian attacks it’s probably going to be a result of ukrainians looking at the terrain and saying okay where where do we want to have this fight um in terms of other changes right the only other substantive change uh is uh let’s see if I can find it here is near natova uh you can see natala uh just a small Advance again Russians doing what they do best which is uh waves of people advancing block by block through a a town or forest and uh but when you zoom out you can see that this is not part of any of their major objectives now if you feel like you are struggling to get uh your major objectives done 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account you can just go to amazon.com and search for strike gum and it’ll pop right up and thanks to the dozens of people who have already left us festar reviews uh you know that makes a huge difference on Amazon uh so thank you guys so much now uh let’s talk a little bit about Russia’s larger objectives and Ukrainian officials right they are trying to break Russian opsc right Russia wants its plans kept as close as possible and the ukrainians want to expose it uh we know that the opposite sort of happened where when the US service member leaked the plans for the Ukrainian offensive um it seemed like Russia was totally prepared for it and totally ready um and those plans quickly became public but Ukraine do the same thing to Russia and they’ve announced Russia is aspiring to seize the entirety of detet and Lans oblast which is huge which is a huge area for them to take uh let’s see if we can just zoom in on what that looks like uh on the maps here and okay wait wait wait this is the cities detet and luhans oh blasts okay and show me some images let’s find a map here we go okay so as you can see these are large areas let’s see if we can get some some triangulation here uh this is probably the best I think okay so the the actually this isn’t even that good either this is a dated map let’s try to find a good one I’m really shocked that there’s not a better one that lets us really triangulate where everything is and Google Maps is just like not that good for this sort of thing uh but maybe we’ll try maybe we’ll try maybe Google Maps will give us a better perspective it’s really a pain here um because I want to know right we need to know where oh here we go here we go here’s the lanso blast so you can see the L lanso blast stretches not to kke but it stretches to kopans Lyman horka uh and then down now we’re into like denet go blast but you can see here that basically they have a large portion of this right severo NK um as you zoom in you realize that there’s there actually Russia is pretty close to sing seizing the entirety of this right you see they still need to get this Novo horka um but when we plot it against areas Russia currently controls uh you can see that they actually control a large portion of denet go blast right they still or Lans go blast right Kon is held by Ukraine forces but uh you know they actually expand Beyond this right there’s bachet um and so it’s kind of tough now when we look at denet oblast right you could see that this is a little harder they got to seize cremor again Lyman uh right stretching down to marup all the way to velon NOAA com comar udichi uh so you can tell them for uh Russian forces they actually have to make a lot of gains in this area right but I think that is part of so this is actually a fairly doable objective for Russian forces um it it’s not Preposterous um but the idea I think is to seize these two oblast my thesis and then Russia can plant the flag and declare Victory they can say great these two oblasts they’ll they’ll rewrite history they’ll say this was always our objective um these two oblasts are the ones with the largest number of Russian speakers um and we’ve liberated them from the tyranny of uh being able to vote for their leaders and now we are going to uh integrate them into the Russian Federation and Russia May unilaterally declare Victory um very possible right uh if they’re able to take donbas right Ukraine speculates they may then go after zapot aesia oblast but uh it seems sort of unlikely now the uh Russian forces uh do have a plan according to the ukrainians to sees harke or sui but it’s really not clear whether that’s a serious plan and you can see why harke would require Russia to not only reverse all the Ukrainian gains from their harke offensive uh a year and a half ago but they would actually have to expand that reaching all the way uh en circling one of the largest cities in Ukraine right which is a pretty tall order I mean you can see this the density of this harke region and you understand how incredibly hard it would be for Russian forces uh in fact the last time a major urban area was seized possibly B bachet but even that’s more of a town I would say that seiro denet uh a oblast capital is probably the closest to a proper City seizure that we’ve seen and that was almost 2 years ago now so I say this because I think the the at least the ukrainians are saying that Russia’s attempting to se seize the town of chavar that’s due west of Bachman but until Western Aid arrives really fully arrives uh UK Russians are operating with a 10 to1 artillery advantage and what ukrainians are calling total air superiority but what they mean is the fact that Russian forces can conduct Glide bomb strikes they can’t still get that their aircraft can’t get close but without Patriot missiles uh they also the aircraft can’t be kept at a distance and so the idea I think even ukrainians say it’s only a matter of time before CH ofar Falls but that’s okay because chavar itself right is not a like major urban area it’s another town um and frankly it will allow the ukrainians to buy them time time is is in their favor in the short term right so as the isw assesses while the first deliveries of US military aid uh have are going to arrive to the front line this week it’s going to take a bunch more weeks before they really scale up right New York Times reported yesterday that the first installment of assistance right anti-armour weapons missiles and5 artillery shells likely they mean air defense missiles but they may mean deep strike missiles um is AR is has arrived but this is just a small portion of the $60 billion right this is the uh in the military we called it a speed ball right this is a prepackaged uh Logistics dump um where it’s okay so not to over complicate it but in Logistics there’s push and there’s poll right and push means that you get something you didn’t ask for right they say listen we know you’re a unit in combat and so we’re going to make our best guess what you need and we’re going to push it to you you don’t have to ask for it we’re going to send for example if you’re an infantry Squad you can guess what would be in a push package right like a speed it would be you know Small Arms rounds it would be medical gear food water right and and maybe some rounds for things like mortars and and individual uh or creu served weapons right that’s what you would push and if you want to make sure you can get it quickly what you’ll do is in one little pallet something you could fit in the back of a pickup truck or fit in the back of a fton or drop from an airplane right you’re going to put it on a pallet you’re going to wrap it up tight and then you’re going to say you’re going to put a little bit of everything you know they need in there and you’re going to say listen you don’t have like either you don’t have to ask or you send us you just call us you say listen send it send some stuff our way we’re a little low on ammo no planning needed they take that pallet they throw it on the pickup truck off they go it’s called a speedball well you can scale that up and I suspect that the US military had a speedball of Ukrainian stuff too because you notice that destroying tanks destroying aircraft and destroying infantry are the three things that Ukraine needs to do to Russia and those are the three things that are in this initial package so I think this was sitting all these were sitting on pallets they were had trucks on standby and as soon as the ink was dry on it they pushed it but remember Ukraine’s Got to take it they’ve got to unpack it they’ve got to figure out where it needs to go they’ve got to uh put it on their own trucks and then move it through their Logistics system to get to the front lines and so that’s probably what the US did here but it’s a small fraction of the 60 billion right the big wave takes more time it takes more effort it takes a lot more uh of everything and so right the uh a senior Us official citing a classified assessment said that Russia is probably going to continue to make marginal gains in the East and Southeast leading up to May 9th right in four days and then Russian forces probably don’t have enough manpower to do any other oh any other large scale offensive effort um the US military thinks Ukrainian front line not going to collapse in the near term uh but remember they said the same thing about the Afghan government and boy were they wrong um despite these severe shortages but again the shortages likely feeling a little less pressing given that the Title Wave is going to come it’s just going to come in a number it’s going to be measured in probably weeks maybe up to two months that would be that would be my prediction so anyway guys that is all I had for you a huge thank you to the colonel tier members of combat news.com a huge thank you to the lieutenant tier members and to all the members of combat vent news.com I will see you guys in the next one cheers

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Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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Original Video:
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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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