Is Russia Building An Army to Open a NEW FRONT?!

Is Russia Building An Army to Open a NEW FRONT?!

the Russian attack in Ultra detina has been crushed but is this the end of Russia’s offensive plans or they building an army to open up an entirely new front I’m Paul US Army Combat veteran let’s talk about it so this is a look at the uh front lines and as you can see there is a virtually no change from yesterday uh you can see of course uh I maintain that the Ukrainian forces is probably going to conduct a withdrawal from Aron heske uh this looks like some somewhat Higher Ground here but there’s just no reason for them to fight with their backs to it so again I think there’s a withdrawal plan in place for the next I don’t know 24 or 48 Hours um I don’t think that’s indicative of some sort of Russian stunning Russian advance or whatever um I think that it is just part of a Ukrainian plan that sort of reflects sir’s uh more flexible defensive strategy or more defensive uh flexible defensive Doctrine uh in which yielding bad territory uh especially when there’s much better territory to defend close by is always worth the tradeoff um the only changes that we do have to the front line and there’s a number Uh Russian forces making a incredibly marginal Advance uh taking this tree line here looks like about uh maybe 300t of tree line um you also have Russian forces uh seizing a town in the uh Northern front here which is unusual it’s unusual for any town to change hands um but this looks like you know the last kind of row of Ukrainian forces here kicked out of this kilka um giving the this two Town sort of cluster here to Russian forces but again given that you can see there’s really very limited kind of roadways in this area and the dense forest and rough terrain and low concentration of troops means that I never put much stock in these kind of uh back and forths right it’s just it’s hard enough for Russia to uh stage offensive operations when they have favorable terrain to mounted armored forces um when it’s unfavorable as it often is here in the northern front it is just unfeasible it is just not going to happen for them um and so whatever they achieve again is often very limited often times the gains are quickly reversed it’s really there’s not a lot of um uh sustainability to it right and a lot of these units are just more lightly manned uh even though it looks like a lot right um we’ve seen the based on sort of kind of inferred from Ukrainian data these are this is just lighter units uh a lower concentration of troops um and it takes a lot less to sort of shift to the front line back and forth versus where you have whole battalions or regiments in engaged in just a few square miles of fighting um but there’s a few more shifts in the front line uh let’s see if we can uh tease it out here um notably there you go a little bit of a change here n mes uh again a small Russian advance in a tree line this looks a lot more like uh the Russian tactics we’ve seen over the past several months and what I mean by that is that Russia is is is well going back to what the Soviet Doctrine says they should do and Soviet Doctrine again is about pressing across an entire front right pushing the whole of your enemy’s uh military without having any one specific concentration and then at some point something will happen as you keep that military Under Pressure like we saw in Ultra datina it wasn’t a a stunning Russian maneuver that caused the opening that they then exploited for their attack it was a miscommunication a bad one right but in 3 years of war statistically you’re going to have one miscommunication that’s really really uh bad like that right and that’s what they had uh Ukrainian unit withdrew their relief unit never arrived in the same positions the trade-off never happened and Russia poured into that Gap in the lines and then per Soviet Doctrine threw all the their reinforcements and reserves into that Gap but the thing to remember is that well you know once it’s contained they have to go back to that sort of push everywhere along the front strategy which is not very Personnel efficient and it’s not very efficient full stop and as you can see here right this this in the grand scheme of things it didn’t really make that much of a difference when we look at the statistics right as of the end of April that’s 6 days ago right when most of this we we’ll we’ll actually we’ll we’ll take a look here uh at the last day in April right so here’s April 30th so you can see that from April 30th to now right you know there’s a little bit of a of a build out but more or less things look like they do now um the total change uh in terms of how much of uh Ukraine Russia occupies was one 1,000th well sorry 1/ 100th of a percent that’s 1% of one % that’s the change that Russia was able to enact when visually done with the top being 100% of Ukraine here’s the bottom and here’s everything that was Russia occupied before February 2022 and here’s you can see the apex of the Russian Advance 25% of the country then they got pushed out and now there has been almost no detectable change so a reminder that you know this this this fighting it’s very Dynamic it obviously is very attritional and as as Russia likely assesses um if they can break the Ukrainian military they are more likely to be able to kind of stage uh uh like the idea is that you break the Ukrainian military and then you take you sweep through the country that’s kind of what they’re going for right it’s a little bit like a dam you you’re not going to break a dam with attrition you’re not going to slowly flood the town blow the dam no it’s going to break and you’re going to flood the whole town so that’s kind of how this attritional thinking Works um but if you’re interested in seeing how Ukraine ran this defensive effort to stop Russia in ultraa um I can’t show you here those videos appear on combat vet news.com combat fet news.com is my site uh it is for members only I drop videos there twice a week profiling uh the most upto-date combat footage and it’s where we see the tactics that these forces are using up close um we do the analysis uh it’s an invaluable resource I talk all the time about the way you can see the Ukrainian need for Munitions the ukrainians evolving drone strategy the awful uh conditions that many of these uh Russian storm Z and storm V units assault under um and if you want to support what I do because obviously YouTube demonetizes a lot of my videos based basically anything with a uniform and a gun they demonetize I suspect that YouTube deems me a like small Creator um and so they worry about me uh uh you know pedaling conspiracies or something like that and so they they strictly demonetize uh videos even ones that a major news Outlet would be allowed to show it’s pretty frustrating that’s why I depend on you guys uh the members to help keep me uh in the business so to speak um any one of these tiers is going to get you access to that exclusive video archive and the twice a week updates so thanks again to all the members combat vent news.com uh now let’s talk about the other big story which is Russia preparing for a major offensive and the opening of a new front allegedly Russia is purportedly preparing and forming a northern group of forces from the Leningrad military District to operate in the belad har Direction this includes members of the elite 67 vdv airborne division sent to kers and that Russia is gathering almost 50,000 people right 10,000 in KK 31,000 in belgorod 8,000 in briansk and this looks like a a new front an invasion force reinvasion force I guess and it is a huge undertaking the problem is of course unlike the Russian invasion uh we all know it’s coming right now I want to look at the map here and you can see here is uh here is harv here’s bod right K is up here Brians is right here so Brians K Bel so you could see that that to me infers that this is about the rumor is that it’s about taking har and I think that’s we’re probably going to see Russia try to dve in harke you can see there’s only a couple of routes that they can really do so at scale one is this north south rout here one is through G Von and I think actually based on kind of the operation of the freedom of Russia Legion I think you’re highly likely to see Russia try to push into these two directions right because you see you could see this is really rough terrain it’s very unforgiving for Russian forces and so they’re not going to want to fight in it they’re going to want to um fight on roadways uh the question of course is can they even do it um and that’s a pretty big question but I think their idea is that if they can drive into harke into the urban areas of harke once they’re in harke they can fight it like the Battle of bachet and win this highly attritional block byblock fight um I think it’s too ambitious in Bachman you’ve got to remember that as a as a precondition to them taking Bachman Center they had to occupy the flanks right remember they before taking bachet uh you saw them you saw the Vagner group take solidar and blah you also saw them occupy kka and drika up to this region here so Bachman was encircled and then Russia began its attritional uh fight similar thing happened in ad diviva right that Russia had the encirclement virtually complete or partially complete I should say um and then it began it’s ational fight in the center um so it would have to encircle harke and harke is not box it’s not a diva you can see it is a massive urban area it is a capital and in order to take this Russia would likely need um probably more than 50,000 troops remember they they killed or wounded 50,000 in AV Diva alone and AV divka like here I want you guys to scale this just look at the number of buildings the number of urban areas right and it’s it’s a it’s a true City with multiple districts a train station lakes and reservoirs right now let’s compare this to aiva where Russia man you they they strain their arm uh I can’t say it on YouTube but uh helping themselves out patting themselves on the back we’ll say um of how great a job they did taking AV divka and you could see AV divka is not even the size of a single District in harke right harke this whole screen would have been blotted out with inner locking city blocks and and and high-rise construction buildings and have diva is at its widest uh maybe a maybe 12200 M so again is this going to be the the Russian stunning Advance no probably not but it remains to be seen anyway guys that’s all I had thank you so much to the colonel tier members of coment news.com thanks so much to our Lieutenant tier members and thanks so much to all the members of combit news.com new video drops tomorrow see you in the next one cheers

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Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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