RU Falling For An Obvious Trap, But Doesnt Seem to Care

Russia is on the attack but is Ukraine just lowering them into a hopeless trap I’m Paul US Army Combat veteran let’s talk about it so this is a look at the front line in the last 24 hours or so and there’s been several changes and but the most notable that I wanted to really talk about are in the East now we’ve seen that Russia’s you know big offensive or whatever in uh around Ultra datina has fizzled uh the only thing we’re seeing here is again the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces to this defensive Reservoir and Canal line uh which we talked about as a a a a predicted event um not really anything exceptional and in the last several days you can see there’s been zero progress uh by Russian forces here uh so a indicator pretty clearly that this attack has run out of steam and Rush threw a lot of their reserves into this and may have even expended reserves that otherwise would have gone to preparing for their larger offensive they’re allegedly planning in the Northeast uh in the forested areas up here near Lyman and harke but that doesn’t mean Russia has stopped its attack but as we’ve talked about Russia has this bizarre fixation on territory you might recall two years ago they actually paid Vagner troops based on square meters or square kilometers of territory seized so there was no difference to the Russian military between empty Farmland of no value and a downtown urban area uh and it seems like Russia might still be operating under this this mentality um because you can see that there has been a lot of of push by the Russian military in and around natova and yaso branka now you notice that it’s South here of this umansky line right where which this was a Ukrainian defensive line that relied on this Reservoir and Canal system here uh near orka and umansky and had Ukrainian forces dug in in the hilltops to the Northwest and it was it is really effective um you can see that while Russian forces were able to seize the town of sea Crossing this reservoir uh they’re just not able to conduct the kind of open ground assaults uh necessary to advance their position any further right but what they’ve done though is push a little bit South and when we look South you see what I’m talking about here notice this piece of terrain right here uh and it’s kind of unique for a couple of reasons uh but most notably is that look there’s a river Canal system that culminates in this vodana Lake and the vula lake here in the north right and if you thought crossing a river as a military was hard it is is crossing a lake as a military is borderline impossible right it involves you putting all your troops into boats and having them paddle hopelessly across the water unable to defend themselves with no cover no concealment and in the era of drone Warfare it would be a total total nightmare like it’s it it is it is not impossible but it is something that has only been done by like the best militaries against fighting some of the most most inept militaries and you notice here to the north there’s basically the same thing the river and Canal system connecting it with umansky and this High Ground all the way to oriva so this strip of land in between it you can see is uh tactically we we’ll call it a disadvantage yet that appears to be where Russia is trying to advance Russia is literally some of its most dynamic advances in the front line are in this natova region and going towards this yaso branka and look where is this going to end for them yes it’s true if you and if you are a member of combat vet news you know that hdra dropped a video today looking at the Russian tactics they’re using to seize territory in natova and they are certainly trying their best uh but it’s a huge SLO and it’s pretty clear the Ukraine Ians don’t really have any designs on holding natova um they’re just here to inflict casualties on the Russians and pull back and I think the reason is pretty simple it’s because this whole axis is a complete waste of Russia’s time why well the answer is simple that one they are not going to be able to achieve anything like if they if if Russia okay so if you’re ukra you do not want your forces to be fighting in this little cauldron here right you don’t want to have to try to hold this peninsula because look your forces are kind of traed in a shooting gallery and they instead are going to want to actually conduct a big Crossing operation blow this bridge and let the Russians advance and the Russians seem willing to advance that’s the crazy thing they’re willing to put troops into this thing a shooting gallery right because look their forces cannot receive supporting fire from the north the South or the West they’ll be trapped here right and we’re still ukrainians can easily hold this umansky line because look they can’t CR Russia’s not going to cross this River here they aren’t going to cross this Lake they have a few dozen you know a few hundred met and they still have to conduct a canal Crossing where ukrainians are going to be able to tear them apart and so they’re literally getting Canal like canalized into this small area where ukrainians are literally going to have an entire Firing Line set up along the to their North and we’ll likely have it set up to their South that’s probably why the Russians are fixated on natova but you can see that even if they took natova it still isn’t going to change the reality as you could see here that they’re that any Russian forces that Advance as part of this Salient are going to be trapped in a firing line where they can’t help here’s the thing Russian forces that are stuck on this peninsula they’re not going to be able to provide very much support for other Russian forces trying to advance to the North and South maybe they can provide some indirect fire support but you’re not going to have a BMP or a BTR like setting up position here shooting across the lake it’s just it’s just not going to happen right there the lake is is even if they wanted to support let’s say offensive efforts here you’re talking about a kilometer away M maybe you could like do some Area fire with uh again like maybe a BTR Auto Cannon but you’re not going to get any kind of real meaningful fire support you know you’re not going to get an assault right you’re not going to have troops Crossing this so it’s a very strange place for Russia to choose to put its offensive efforts and I think it’s a reflection of the fact that again Russia doesn’t really care so much about where it’s seizing territory it just wants to they’re probably you know the Russian military seems to have this mentality of well our goal is to liberate all of this area liberate you know um this whole area and so we’re going to have to take this incredibly unforgiving terrain sooner sooner or later so we might as well just do it now which is which is I don’t know how else to tell you this this is dumb right like if you’re going to have to do something really hard this is like this is the the the real world military version of being like a level 10 character and being like yo we’re going to have to clear this level 50 dungeon sooner or later we might as well do it as a level 10 it’s like no if you’re thinking things through you’re like listen clear the level 50 dungeon once you’re a level 100 if you’re a Russian Commander you should probably tell your bosses listen guys hold off on this terrible unforgiving piece of terrain let’s try to finish this assault near noval proov or Skil or or or push out from orka into umansky anything else anything else is going to be a better idea and going to set better conditions to conduct this advance than what they’re doing now and the fact that this doesn’t really occur to the Russians is itself kind of Preposterous you could see that that you know maybe they’re trying to break into this NOA proa but again this seems like it’s more part of this sort of stalled Russian uh breakthrough attempt near Ultra datina and if you’ve if you’re a member of combat vet news which you should be uh it’s one the best way to support the channel you know that YouTube has a very low opinion of small uh military creators especially someone like me who uh is sometimes pretty unvarnished with my opinions about uh us and Ukrainian policy right I I I I can support their efforts and acknowledge when they make mistakes I consider it essential to supporting their efforts YouTube doesn’t always and sponsors sponsors definitely don’t I’m lucky if I get a sponsor or two a month so I depend on you guys uh the fans to enable me to continue to do this so if you want become a member right any one of these tiers is going to get you access to the twice weekly video drops where I’d find the uncensored combat footage the stuff we’re looking at is less than 72 hours old footage coming out of natala we’re seeing both Russian and Ukrainian footage and we really learned a lot this video about their tactics it looks like Russia’s evolved its offensive tactics um is particularly interesting was how they use their btrs but I can’t even show you any of the footage YouTube will demonetize me so if you want it’s on combat F news again and if you want to become a lieutenant or Colonel tier member you get access to the exclusive room on the Discord you get the shout outs at the end of videos of course you can opt out if you want to support but don’t want to put your name on it um but I appreciate these guys so much so check us out combat vets.com links in the description it should also appear as a card up there um but the other thing that I think is interesting and and we’ve seen you know Russia’s really depending on its btrs and bmps it’s armored forces but what’s fascinating is almost none of them apparently are newly made they’re refurbished Old Stock and according to some satellite photos that an open source analyst found um the Russia’s pre-war vehicle stores have dropped by about 32% uh from about 15,000 vehicles in 2021 down to just 10,000 in May of 2024 um most of what it pulled from stores are multi-purpose fighting Vehicles again with just uh 922 mtlb is remaining um the bmd Airborne amphibious tra Vehicles down to just 244 BTR 50s down to just 52 left that they can that they can track um right there’s almost no BTR new BTR 60s um 70s and 80s right and there’s only about 2600 remaining and the mil you know the depot says that Russia is Fielding about 1 to 2,000 of its mtbs uh in Ukraine and and all this is a sign that the Russian defense industrial base it’s scaled up a lot right Russia has really managed to turn on the spigot in terms of its ability to churn out Munitions but it is not building everything from scratch still relying on Old Stock it’s probably manufacturing parts and to get these up and running but what I also want to point out is I it is strongly possible that of these remaining 60% of vehicles many of them may have been stripped for parts right if you want to it’s very common in militaries when you have six vehicles that you can’t get them running you go okay let’s try to go in and get whole Parts off of all six to get maybe the three most the three in best shape up and running instead of having six broken Vehicles let’s just have three really broken vehicles that are stripped of parts and three functioning ones and I’ll bet anything that a lot of these vehicles are missing a lot of these 10,000 are missing some key components um that Russia’s going to have a hard not impossible but a tough time getting back up and running really I strongly think that’s true because again that’s what these stores are for they’re not necessarily to create new Rolling Stock they may literally just be like the military version of a pick aart and the fact that Russia can’t is not actually able to replace these vehicles is a sign that uh that Ukraine’s war of attrition their strategy of attrition may just be working much better than Russia is indicating right behind the scenes we know Russia has really struggled with its Logistics problems it feels like it’s solving them because its Force generation abilities are so great um but again people Russia has lots of people to throw into the war but do they have lots of stuff to fight it that is a question that is it does not have the same Clear answer you know unlike Russia’s ability to generate Manpower or or low sophistication things like shoot artillery shells right um anyway guys that’s all I had a huge thank you to our colal tier members again enjoy today’s video um huge thank you to the lieutenant tier members could not do this without you guys really and um if you want to become a member please do uh the new video dropped today so I’ll see you in the next one cheers

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Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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44 comments

  3. I really recommend analysing those things on a standard topographic map. The lake operation might seem silly on a map without any symbols of military relevance. But if you look on a topo map, there is a nice, wide, paved road, that is perfectly shielded from the Ukrainian positions to the north by a ridge. Of course the Russians are going for this, if they don't want to see Ukrainians firing at them from all directions when they go for the real objective: Pokrovsk, the administrative center of the district west of Donetsk. There is something looking like a dam at the isthmus between the lakes, that is exposed from all directions, but if you can get past this by suppressing the Ukrainian forces by massive artillery or glide bombs, you can get a pretty significant force in the back of the Ukrainians defending the motorway 30 south. Also, the Ukrainian defenders hiding in the small settlement east of the dam have to run their logistics over this dam as well and activity can easily be spotted from Russian positions east because the road comes down a eastern slope. The terrain really doesn't favor the Ukrainian defenders there, and should Putins troops get up on the plateau around Selidov, west of these lakes, there is little that can stop them until they stand in front of Pokrovsk. Any Ukrainian defenders would be just as badly exposed as the Russian attackers there. (And Russians lives are much cheaper than Ukrainian ones.) Is it a good spot to attack for Russia? Likely not. But for getting the Russian major objectives, you have to get past the Ukrainian positions and the weakest spot could actually be just around these lakes.

  5. Russia acts like it has the peak population of the Soviet Union (290 million in 1990), whereas they have half that (145 million), not counting over 1 million who fled and a couple hundred thousand deaths in the war. They still dwarf Ukraine, but they have to defend their country, and that's becoming much more difficult with equipment and men being stripped away from the eastern 2/3 of the country to support the war effort. At some point, people may stop fearing the ability of Moscow to respond to uprisings and incursions.

  6. Oh, yeah… It's an obvious trap, the "Manstein elastic defence". But where are the massed hordes of fast moving armour to snap the trap? 1) The number of reserves don't exist. 2) If they concentrate or assemble they are seen. 3) If they try to mount this kind of attack, exposed in the open, they get destroyed. We are back to WW1 not WW2, trenches and nibbling, not bold manoeuvres.

  10. The only person who is obsessed with territory is you. Good lord. Staring at the maps, rather than understanding what is going on. The ineptitude is between your ears. It's a war of attrition. Retreating is the most difficult and dangerous thing there is. The Russians keep partially encircling the Ukrainians… they're already behind the line you're thinking Ukraine is falling back to.

    The Russians are bombing the sh#t out of the Ukrainians… every day. Nothing going Ukraine's way.

  13. Normally I’d laugh at the Russians and applaud Ukraine, but knowing Russia’s MO, I get the feeling that this is Russia throwing enough meat into the grinder until it stops grinding away.

  15. I find it utterly astounding, mind-boggling even, that despite the veritable avalanche of questionable content on this channel, and the consistent track record of our dear CVet in the 'accuracy' department (and by 'accuracy', I mean 'consistent lack thereof'), he still has an audience. I mean, really folks? Is the allure of having one's biases lovingly stroked so irresistible that we're just throwing reality out the window? Oh, the times we live in!

  17. Please the boss, to hell with the cost. A corrupt and ineffective military can point to a map and say "we achieved this", queue up for a medal and wait for promotion. Argue for a strategy that has no immediate ground gains and face demotion and worse as an 'enemy' agent.

  18. As far as I'm aware Covert Cabal hasn't done a recent survey of Russian armored vehicles and the latest data in the previous report was images that were many months old. In any case the official figure from the Ukraine General Staff is that Russia has lost over 14,000 armored vehicles as of today. So who exactly is being quoted here?

  19. What the hell. I have followed you from the beginning. I have always considered you a very intelligent person and a brilliant strategist. I have heard the saying "if your enemy is making a mistake, don't tell them". Not only did you tell them, you told them what they should do. You don't think you have Russian's watching you. I have canceled you and hope you haven't done any serious damage.

  21. Im US army also. 35 th engineers. BOTH sides have satellite's. You know that shit. Krasnohorivka, Chasiv Yar, and many more falling. Russia ain't the one in trouble

  26. Not sure but I think you could have waited a few days with this. Don't underestimate their stupidity. And you can be sure at least FSB is watching this

  28. Great content BUT… In an era that everything is so fast paced in coms and almost limitless in reaching worldwide audience. I honestly Don’t know how much of this public analysis can help to shape the Russians opinions at the military level regarding there strategies and tactics. I would be very careful about how to respond about these real times information if we want Ukraine to do better.

  29. Just found this channel. Veteran Boy Scout more like it. One of these cretins that sets out Russian goals according to his analysis then tells us there useless when failing to meet them. Even the mainstream media acknowledges Russia is winning and the Neo Nazi Ukrainato has zero chance. Something some of us knew from the start. Horseshit and PR doesn’t win wars🤡🤡🤡🤡🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺💪🏽

  30. Reporting from Ukraine is under a bot attack again. See video: ' REPORTING FROM UKRAINE @RFU ASKED FOR YOUR HELP. WILL YOU ANSWER? ' by Prof. Gerdes.

  31. It’s a couple of Little Hill tops plus a couple of major water obstacles… very defendable terrain

  32. Ukraine is currently being surrounded by Russia and losing 1000's of soldiers a day now. Russia is also moving 100's of thousands of troops to the frontlines for a massive attack coming.

  36. Эммм… это парень точно был военным? С чего он взял, что атака под Очеретино выдохлась? Высоты взяты, цель достигнута. Дальше нужно обеспечить фланги, подтянуть резервы, провести ротацию, подогнать артиллерию… Или он думал, что русские узкой кишкой, попрутся до Днепра? Честно говоря, Очеретянский успех, стал неожиданностью, даже для русских. Мало кто ожидал, что после Авдеевки, так быстро удастся продвинуться вперед и так далеко. Фиксация на территории? У русских? Мне кажется или это всу любят посидеть в котлах… Вагнер это, вообще отдельная история… Это солдаты удачи, брошенные на затыкание дыры, с целью сковать как можно больше сил всу. Для этого, им временно был выделен человеческий ресурс, в виде зеков. Хотя, конечно, вагнеровцы хороши и сами по себе. Возможно, к фиксации на территории, можно отнести бои в Работино. Но даже это, скорее не бои за территорию, а за некий символизм. Хотя, возможно, мы чего-то не знаем, и там есть какой-то иной замысел.

  37. That peninsula belongs to whoever holds the land to the North, South and West.
    If the Russians are smart they will attempt to go to the North and South of those lakes and then encircle the peninsula like they've done around many small towns.
    Personally I hope they're not that smart. I'd love to see them occupy the peninsula and learn that it really was a giant KZ…

  41. I dont Support russia or Ukraine but this is nit a trap. Ukrainian cant hold much longer, they are getting over powered. We see in 1 year how Things go.

  42. Paul comments its like written for Monty Python comedy
    —————————————————–
    Russian soldier> General we can not advance anymore toward Slovians<
    General> Why? Are Ukrainians build strong defensive lines, a lot of mines, dragon teeth, 3 line of trenches?<
    Soldier> Nope, even worst, 20 kilometer of empty field , low value empty fields, insignificant empty fields<
    General> These its terrible, Paul combat veteran was right, i dont know how we will take Sloviansk if empty field stand between us?<
    Soldier> maybe,just maybe we can move forward and take first these empty field and then we will be very close to Sloviansk?
    General> Idiot, are you forget what Paul says, empty field are traps, everywhere around us are empty fields full of traps, that why you are not military analyst and Paul are<
    Ukrainian soldier move inside> Trap, we set up a trap for you? Why we every time find last about that?<

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