Putin’s defence minister skipped inauguration as Kremlin braces for re-shuffle

Putin’s defence minister skipped inauguration as Kremlin braces for re-shuffle

one of the key absentees at that inauguration uh was the defense minister Sergey soyu uh who rumor Hazard has fallen out of favor and may become a Fall Guy for the failings in in in Ukraine so another swearing in ceremony uh ceremony for Vladimir Putin um tell us what we saw because it was just it was just opulent finery and um and it was just a huge show wasn’t it effectively it was essentially a show and of course it’s one that we’ve become wearily familiar with given this it’s this is the sixth time or fifth time is it but uh it was in in some respects both surreal and chilling chilling of course because it’s a reminder that he has w a sham election effectively destroyed the Democracy which he promised to preserve and develop when he took power in 2000 and also because of the way he has brutally uh destroyed all of position of course uh culminating with the the the death of Alexi naly in that penal colony in Siberia um it was also slightly surreal with all the Pomp and ceremony um unusually for Moscow it was snowing outside there was a ceremonial salute from a bunch of cannons that may manage to destroy a few trees I’m not sure whether that was particularly uh in in in intended um and some very chilling words for the West uh we will be victorious it was it was notable that in the coverage of this inauguration on Russian television a lot of time was spent on a church service with the head of the the Russian Orthodox Church far more than you’d normally expect and this was very much seen as Putin’s way of reminding the world and Russia that his brutality in Ukraine has religious undertones that it’s ordained by the church that it’s almost a holy mission of course which is increasingly un underlines a lot of what he says about that war um the chairman of the Russian Parliament Ian said if there is Putin there is Russia if there is no Putin there is no Russia I was just musing to myself earlier that we would never say that about Rishi sunak and in fact most most leaders would never have them said would never have that said of them um how does how does Vladimir Putin see himself I think he sees himself as a modernday zar I think he sees himself as an inheritor of the zaris tradition as a strong man um as very much Russia’s Peter the Great um and and someone who will not tolerate um descent he sees himself as a person whose mission it is to rebuild the old Russian Empire you know the rusi Mia as he puts it the Russian World uh with with Russia at the helm though perhaps the most uh accurate in in in my view comments that emerg today came from Alexi Nel’s nal’s Widow who who said in a statement on YouTube our country is led by a liar a thief and a murderer um so she wasn’t pulling any punches but um of course she’s well out of Russia at the moment yeah and and and look will those words from Alexa Noel’s Widow they resonate with Russians um obviously outside Russia they resonate we are talking about them but is she shouting into an echo chamber effectively when she tries to reach the Russian people with a statement like that it’s hard to say because we see a lot we read a lot about how the Russian people support Putin I mean I don’t think we can take the election result are Tau seriously uh but there are claims that Russian people are whipped up by the Nationalist sentiment that they support the war in Ukraine but like any dictatorship it’s incredibly difficult to to know what’s really in the mind of the of the Russian people because of course when you’re in a tyranny you you don’t want to say anything that might be construed as being critical of the government um one likes to think there are those in Russia for whom those words are still meaningful uh who thoroughly dislike Putin and everything that he stands for um the degree to which that opposition is there the degree to which there is uh real suspicion and dislike of Putin is is harder to judge um but I don’t doubt that it is certainly there it’s only the question of of of how great that is I mean it’s one of the issues with when you set yourself up as a supreme leader as the embodiment of Russia um as a dictator uh that it becomes almost impossible to get rid of someone like that uh in in a in a nonviolent way and and in in the same way that you see in xiin ping in in China setting himself up as a a leader for life and of course that’s effectively what Putin’s done by changing the Constitution it means the prospect of a peaceful and constitutional change of power uh become increasingly difficult and it’s all about the court Intrigue what’s going on behind the scenes and of course it was significant today that one of the key absentees at that inauguration uh was the defense minister Sergey soyu uh who rumor Hazard has fallen out of favor and may become a Fall Guy for the failings in in in Ukraine um and clearly there will be a a shakeup of of the court of Putin um but clearly he has enemies and and uh perhaps the most dangerous time for any dictator is when your power appears to be absolutely Supreme 87% of people back his leadership that is a a poll from inside Russia and as you say we can’t we can’t really ratify um uh any poll within Russia or the elections because you know many will argue rightly that it was not a democratic process look his so this is his new six-year term it is a it is a fifth term uh he overtakes Stalin he’ll be Russia’s longest serving ruler since Katherine the Great If he if he sees out his fifth ter will take him to 2036 when he’s 83 and obviously you know as you said um unless he is killed or dies you think it very unlikely that he will ever not be Russia’s president effectively there is no deposing him other other than by death but I just wonder whether Vladimir Putin is having conversations about his legacy because it’s all very well wanting to remain in power until your dying days but if you ultimately want to be thought of as one of the Great lead leaders surely you have to ensure a legacy there you do and one of the chilling things about Putin is he does very much see his legacy as rebuilding the Soviet Empire which he regretted the demise of uh he really does see his legacy in restoring the greatness of Russia who gets to continue that though Ian I think I’m saying here really how does he how does he continue his work um well I guess it depends on who who eventually succeeds him uh the power that person will have and how successful he is in his in his mission in in Ukraine I mean it’s interesting and chilling of course that this this this uh inauguration um was accompanied by uh drills uh involving tactical nuclear weapons which was designed I guess to send a message to Nato and of course the Ukrainian are revealing yet another assassination attempt um against the their president um not the first there have been many of those uh but clearly perhaps the Russian security forces the Russian FSB the old KGB seeing that as maybe a suitable inauguration present president present for uh for Putin tell us more about this plot to assassinate zalinski as you say not the first time but we know that two security officials have been arrested on suspicion of plotting with Russia to assassinate president zinski interesting because they have been many attempts against his life and zalinsky himself has counted about 10 or I think a dozen um there’s not usually much detail emerges about these and it’s not surprising that he has a Target on his back because he’s been such a successful wartime leader such an inspiring wartime leader um in fact one of the first things the Russians wanted to do when they invaded was to eliminate him and I think that’s remained the case throughout the war but there has been more details on this the were it was an inside job we’re told there were people within the um Ukrainian Security Forces it did involved we’re told rocket propelled grenades drones mines so there was a fair old Arsenal that they were um attempting to wield against him um but it has been thwarted and and Ukraine has been usually forthcoming with the details about about the attempt I think that they they were equally as keen on the eve of this inauguration to demonstrate that they had thwarted this Russian effort and it it had not been successful look um really interesting to speak you thank you so much for Lending us your wisdom uh Ian Williams uh former foreign correspondent in Russia and author of Putin’s missile War Russia’s strike campaign in Ukraine good to speak to you thank you

“One of the key absentees at that inauguration was the defence minister.”

The Kremlin is bracing for a shake-up of its senior leadership as Putin prepares to use Shoigu as a fall guy for his failings in Ukraine, says author Ian Williams.

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