Russia’s motive for opening a new front near Ukraine’s north eastern city of Kharkiv | ABC News

Ryan is a retired military General in the Australian Army non-resident fellow of the low Institute and the Washington based Center for strategic and International Studies MC gryan firstly this attack on an apartment building in belgrad Russian media is claiming this was due to a missile launched by Ukraine and shot down by Russia people have been killed and injured and both Ukraine and Russia say they don’t Target civilians what do we know of this attack well I think first of all we don’t even know that it’s an attack all we know is an apartment building has collapsed in belgorod and the Russians have been wonderful in the last 27 months about making up all kinds of stories uh the ukrainians through at this war have not targeted civilian facilities like this so I think we need to give them the benefit of doubt before we believe the Russian propaganda here belgrad is near the border with Ukraine’s Northeastern H region there has been heavy fighting there Russia claims it’s driving Ukrainian forces out of villages what do we know well at this point in time the Russians are advancing mainly with light infantry on two axes north of H uh they’ve been able to advance several kilometers inside Ukraine largely because ukrainians didn’t have defensive positions right on the border they were set well back from the border the ukrainians are using artillery and drones to respond the Russians are taking ground but they’re also taking a lot of casualties in the meantime the ukrainians are rushing reserves to the area to stem the tide so has this come as a shock or was it expected no this has been expected for some time now indeed the Ukrainian Deputy head of military intelligence in an interview with the economist just a few weeks ago forecast that exactly this kind of scenario might occur he he said that may would probably be one of the grimmest months for Ukraine uh but what it does do even if they did forecast it it puts further pressure on Ukrainian forces fighting on the ground and why this region for Russia’s strategy well there’s a couple of reasons for khake firstly it’s away from a lot of the other battles that occurring in the East so what it does is force ukrainians into a dilemma about where they deploy more Ground Forces is it to cope with Russian attacks in the East or to redeploy them in the Northeast so that’s difficult for them same with their defenses it puts the ukrainians in a greater dilemma but back in March Putin did forecast that he wanted to set up a buffer zone inside Ukraine for various reason and he could well be using this operation to establish this buffer zone finally a reshuffle in Russia’s defense and security portfolios as Putin starts his fifth presidential term are these significant changes yeah these are pretty significant Sho has been in that position since 2012 alongside General gasimov who at this point remains as the commander and chief that could change shortly though um you know early in the war shyu was object derision uh but over the last year or so given the improvements in the Russian position and the momentum they’ve generated in the last few months he’s probably remediated himself with the president he’s also very loyal to Putin so um he will continue to do okay under President Putin MC Ryan non-resident fellow of The loow Institute and the Washington based Center for strategic and international studies thank you for joining us thank you it’s great to be with you

Russia has made gains near the north-eastern border of Ukraine, as the Kremlin targets the country’s second biggest city Kharkiv. Retired major general Mick Ryan says the Russian offensive has created a ‘dilemma’ for Ukrainian forces by drawing resources away from their defensive effort in the Donetsk region.

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