In the coming days, the US will announce a new military aid package to Ukraine. Jake Sullivan, US National Security Advisor says.



by Baysdarby

5 comments

  1. [From NewYorker](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/16/trial-by-combat)

    >Sullivan clearly has profound worries about how this will all play out. Months into the counter-offensive, Ukraine has yet to reclaim much more of its territory; the Administration has been telling members of Congress that the conflict could last three to five years. A grinding war of attrition would be a disaster for both Ukraine and its allies, but a negotiated settlement does not seem possible as long as Putin remains in power. Putin, of course, has every incentive to keep fighting through next year’s U.S. election, with its possibility of a Trump return. And it’s hard to imagine Zelensky going for a deal with Putin, either, given all that Ukraine has sacrificed. ***Even a Ukrainian victory would present challenges for American foreign policy, since it would “threaten the integrity of the Russian state and the Russian regime and create instability throughout Eurasia,” as one of the former U.S. officials put it to me. Ukraine’s desire to take back occupied Crimea has been a particular concern for Sullivan,*** who has privately noted the Administration’s assessment that this scenario carries the highest risk of Putin following through on his nuclear threats. In other words, there are few good options.

    —-

    >“The reason they’ve been so hesitant about escalation is not exactly because they see Russian reprisal as a likely problem,” the former official said. “It’s not like they think, Oh, we’re going to give them atacms and then Russia is going to launch an attack against nato. It’s because they recognize that it’s not going anywhere—that they are fighting a war they ***can’t afford either to win or lose.”***

    So ain’t much hopes for package.

  2. On the bright side, the worse Ukraine does in the war the more willing the US is to send new types of kit that were not previously permitted. It’s all part of escalation management. Give Ukraine enough to maintain a stalemate, but not enough to make a Russian defeat possible.

    This goes both ways. If Russia gets the upper hand Sullivan will want to counter by allowing better weapons to be provided.

  3. If it’s anything related to F-16 or if it’s something long range and in quantity I predict Russia will have a hot summer.

  4. I hope they can shore up their defenses enough to weather a few more years of Trump and then the systematic destruction of America.

    I have my doubts.

    But I’m looking at this polling and literally every American swing state Trump is up.

    It makes me want to puke.

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