Putin sacks Shoigu for all of Russia ‘battlefield failures’ in Ukraine | RUSI’s Natia Seskuria

Putin sacks Shoigu for all of Russia ‘battlefield failures’ in Ukraine | RUSI’s Natia Seskuria

he has grown uh unpopular uh increasingly unpopular I would say in Russia because he’s seen as someone who was primarily responsible for Russia’s initial failures and miscalculations at the beginning of the war in Ukraine we have also seen that last year pin has been attacking him quite a lot and one of his sort of uh requests demands was uh was was um to basically for Putin to get rid of shyu because he was um pointing at chyu um and making a point that basically he was the one who uh who was uh responsible for all these uh all the battle Battlefield failures um I wouldn’t say that the reshuffle is um is is um completely surprising because there have been a number of rumors about uh potential uh potential um resignation of Shu coming soon um but and also we have seen that months uh earlier Deputy defense minister timour Ivanov was arrested on briber charges which is itself quite comical when you take into consideration the Russian system and how corrupt it is thousand of civilians have been evacuated from the K region of Ukraine this weekend after moscow’s forces launched A Renewed ground offensive Russia targeted towns and villages in the Northeast with a barrage of artill and mor fire this comes as the Russian President Vladimir Putin has removed his long-term Ally sery Shu as defense minister in a rare reshuffle of his team earlier on I spoke with natia Soria an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and NATA tell me why Moscow is attacking K with such intensity par is uh Ukraine’s second largest city that Russia already attempted to take in early uh 2022 um they have failed to accomplish this goal but it is a very serious Target and I think now Putin feels like there is certain momentum on his side while Ukraine is uh still looking not not as strong as as as as as maybe before and uh Ukraine is now waiting for the Western weapon Supply to be delivered and also they have struggled for quite some time with Manpower shortages so I think what Russia is doing now is to uh to to uh U use this this this time uh and also to uh ensure that Ukrainian forces are uh redirected uh from the Eastern Front um they open up a new front and the attention goes towards the har region at this point Nat you mention of course that Ukraine is waiting for more weapons from the West is that the main is that the the biggest reason why it feels like there’s been a change a shift in the dynamic of this war whereas we now have those Russian troops on the offensive to a greater extent than they have been in recent months yes absolutely I do think that this is one of the key reasons um and U unfortunately the Western Aid has been um has been on hold for quite some time and uh there has been much uncertainty when it comes to whether or not uh the US would make this DEC decision uh the decision obviously has been positive however it has not really helped Ukraine throughout these couple of months to uh to to gain some momentum and also this has uh seriously affected the morale of ukrainians that felt very much let down when it comes to uh continuous and strong Western support while Russia has reiterated many times that they do not plan to uh to stop the war or to uh decrease the pressure onuk ukine quite the contrary and we see that as summer arrives and as it was already expected Russia is going on another offensive and in the meantime of course Russians have been intimidating ukrainians through using various means and we have seen various attempts to uh to to attack uh the critical infrastructure in Ukraine I do think that uh one of the primary reasons why we haven’t seen Ukraine succeeding um any major successes on Ukraine side is the critical vulnerabilities in terms of the weap supplies that they have had and and and that’s exactly the the the main line of attack that the the Russians are using I mean the number of troops the Russians have committed to the fight so far around K is around about 2,000 but but this aerial bombardment and this artillery uh barage Unleashed from across the border it is ferocious isn’t it absolutely and they are trying to put pressure on civilians as well and uh we have seen that there have been some evacuations already um ongoing because of the heavy pressure that Russians are put placing on uh on on on the on this region uh but what they what they try to do is to completely demoralize ukrainians and to uh basically uh reinforce this message that Ukraine is very much on its own and the West would Supply them uh as long as uh would would give them some supplies when it comes to uh military supplies but they won’t have enough help to uh win this war so that’s why we have been seeing um and hearing some messages uh coming from Putin that uh they are still willing to uh to discuss some sort of settlement which is not really the settlement that he’s offering his uh what he’s offering is that basically Ukraine signs up to losing its territorial integrity and sovereignty it it’s St when you look at a map now of Ukraine and you see all the Eastern regions and the fighting that’s been going on in the dbas and now the area around kke a completely separate part of north um eastern Ukraine uh and this bombardment coming from over on on the Russian border and this idea that the Russians are trying to make civilian life in kke untenable and and and you know reducing this cultural and economic Hub to to Rubble it’s it’s a terrifying situation for the people who live in that City but also currently The Villages surrounding it because there are smaller Villages aren’t there um maybe population 2 3,000 who are now being evacuated and moved to to safer parts of the country absolutely and uh Putin actually has uh has mentioned a couple of times that he promised Russians that he would he would what he would try to do is to create some sort of buffer zone to avoid and to stop frequent Ukrainian attacks on belgaro and other Russian border regions and as you mentioned uh har is uh B is at the border so um uh there are the population is absolutely uh frightened and worried that uh this might be an attempt from from Russia to um to uh cut Supply roots and besiege the city uh where this quite a large city as we mentioned 1.1 million people currently reside in hariv so uh this is a very serious uh escalation something that Russians would not be able to achieve uh quickly in terms of their uh goals and um goals and aspirations in this case but um already we see that um ukrainians for example today have mentioned that Russia is already achieving some tactical successes yeah Nat when you look at defense systems and and you saw how the Israelis repelled the Iranian attack recently Ukraine’s lack of air defense systems and ammunition has been made starkly clear hasn’t it but but by the statistics at issues on the number of Russian F Russian missiles fired and intercepted um what does it need is this a case of the you know we talked so much about the planes the f-16s which still seem to be months away from arriving in Ukraine uh and the training that comes with using those those planes what does it need to slow down these attacks on K well uh it is um it is a complexity of a few few factors um and um um um one of the main priorities for Ukraine was um the US to to finally achieve the decision because this Aid that is coming from the US is um critical and um existential I would say for Ukraine to survive the upcoming attacks and now we are not talking even about Ukrainian advances uh we are talking about Ukraine being able to hold the lines and uh um I mean uh on on Friday the US has announced that there will be um a $400 million doll uh worst military aid package for Ukraine uh which is very significant and uh there have been uh some urgent uh necess ities from Ukraine such as air defense Munitions artillery rounds anti-tank weapons armored vehicles so um it’s the Hope certainly is that us will be able to deliver these uh requirements these Necessities to Ukraine as soon as possible because um uh now even the weather conditions are um are are giving advantage to uh Russians that have been preparing for this offensive for quite some time well let’s just briefly touch on on the Russian side of things because there has been a pretty major announcement in the last 24 hours and President Putin has replaced his defense minister Sergey Shu what’s been described essentially as a major reshuffle the Deputy Prime Minister Andre bof has actually come in but but Shu has been he’s been incredibly popular for Putin hasn’t he he’s been loyal um he he’s worked with him from the90s the 2000 thousands um why has this reshuffle happened and what can we expect to be the KnockOn effects from from Andre balof taking over well shu is a very significant figure in Russian politics in Putin Circle he as you described he is a Putin loyalist uh he was appointed um as defense minister in 2012 and he he has been he has served uh by Putin site for many many years since uh since since very early days basically uh he has grown uh unpopular uh increasingly unpopular I would say in Russia because he’s seen as someone who was primarily responsible for Russia’s initial failures and miscalculations at the beginning of the war in Ukraine we have also seen that last year pin has been attacking him quite a lot and one of his sort of uh requests demands was uh was was um to basically for Putin to get rid of shyu because he was um pointing at shyu um and making a point that basically he was the one who uh who was uh responsible for all these uh all the battle Battlefield failures um I wouldn’t say that the reshuffle is um is is um completely surprising because there have been a number of rumors about uh potential uh potential um resignation of Shu coming soon but and also we have seen that months uh earlier the deputy defense minister timour Ivanov was arrested on bribery charges which is itself quite comical when you take into consideration the Russian system and how corrupt it is uh and um um uh I think one of the most interesting uh interesting things that happened recently in Russia is um that uh it it Nikolai pev has also been removed from his uh current uh position who what’s his role yeah he um so he used to be the secretary of the security Council now shyu will replace him as the Secretary of Security Council and uh patev has been a very significant very powerful figure also someone who is um who is very closely aligned with Putin okay um and I mean we cannot really say that this is a complet um demotion for Shu but we know that some some in many cases when Putin wants someone to be out but not necessarily in a very harsh way he sends them to this sort of uh bodies such as the National Security Council when he he will still have um he will still have a powerful role but uh in effect when it comes to P practice uh he will be losing the executive powers obviously NATA CES Cora there associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute founder of the regional Institute for Social Security studies an associate professor in Russian politics advising at chattam house there uh on the situation both in Russia with that change of personnel by Putin removing his long-term Ally Sergey Shu as defense minister and that really is a rare Shuffle reshuffle o of his top team there in Russia but also what’s going on in the ground which you know you could argue is not being talked about uh enough thousands of civilians now being evacuated from the K region and don’t forget this is a different region to the dumbass it’s a different line of attack and it’s an aerial bombardment uh from Moscow after Russian forces launched A Renewed offensive in that part of Ukraine targeting those towns targeting those villages in the Northeast with with a barrage of artillery and mortar fire and and Ki is is an amazing place it’s it’s the cultural center if you like of Ukraine and um the ukrainians desperately asking for more anti-missile and defense systems as well as those F16 aircraft um which they say they desperately need to repel those Russian attack

“Prigozhin was making the point that basically he was the one who was responsible for all the battlefield failures.”

Putin sacked Shoigu as defence minister in a major reshuffle as he “has failed to accomplish goals” in the Ukraine war, says associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute Natia Seskuria.

📻 Listen to Times Radio – https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio

📍 Subscribe to our channel – http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTjDhFuGXlhx9Us0gq0VK2w?sub_confirmation=1

🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/radio-3for3/

📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-to-listen-to-times-radio/app