Battery storage is about to overtake global power capacity of pumped hydro

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1. >It seems remarkable, given that it is less than seven years since the world’s first really big battery – the so-called Tesla big battery at Hornsdale – was built, that the capacity of battery storage around the world is expected to soon overtake that of the much more established pumped hydro technology.

   >The milestone was pointed out on LinkedIn by Marek Kubic, the co-founder of the US battery storage provider Fluence who now works at Neom, the hugely ambitious Saudi Arabia renewable and building project.

   >Kubik says the milestone – which he expects to occur in 2025 – is notable because it shows the battery storage technology, which is often derided as an immature technology, is anything but, and is showing exponential growth.

   >“Why does this matter?” he asked on LinkedIn. “Because batteries are still sometimes viewed to be a drop in the ocean.

   >“An often cited statement (I read this most recently in Prof. Mark Jacobson‘s book ‘No Miracles Needed’) is that PHES makes up 97% of installed grid storage. This was true just a few years ago in a MW sense but has been quickly outdated by exponential mathematics.”

   >He then provided these data points for the last five years.

   >In 2020 the was 17.6GW BESS vs 159.5GW of pumped hydro – PHES (90% PHES)
   In 2021 27.3GW BESS vs 165.0GW PHES (86% PHES)
   In 2022 44.9GW BESS vs 175.0GW PHES (80% PHES)
   In 2023 89.2GW BESS vs 185.5GW PHES (68% PHES)
   In 2024e 156.6GW BESS vs 196.6GW PHES (56% PHES)
   In 2025e, the balance tips forever.

   >Kubik notes that BloombergNEF has predicted that the average annual capacity addition rate of battery storage from now on is expected to be nearly as much as its cumulative capacity.

   It’s worth reading the entire article, but here’s the numbers.