Europe Faces ‘All-Out WAR’ If Ukraine Falls To Russia: British Colonel Warns | The War Zone

Europe Faces ‘All-Out WAR’ If Ukraine Falls To Russia: British Colonel Warns | The War Zone

the world is on a knife edge there’s over 100 armed conflicts currently taking place right across the globe some of these are new others have been going on for decades but each episode will break down everything you need to know to understand the battles shaping the world today welcome to the war zone I’m Maddie hail on today’s episode we are diving straight into the latest conflict coming out of the Russia Ukraine war while the War Began in 2014 When Vladimir Putin began his master plan to take over Ukraine by occupying the Eastern region of Crimea the latest conflict began in February 2022 since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine over two years ago over 220,000 people have died 9,000 in this year alone the situation has escalated in the last week with the Russian army entering the northeastern city of vchan leading to fears that Putin’s military could be close to occupying HEV the second largest city in UK Ukraine is this latest offensive from Russia a game-changing success for the Kremlin here to discuss this with me is former British Colonel heish Bretton Gordon heish thanks so much for your time today Russia has claimed that they’ve entered the northeastern city of vol chance what does the situation look like now for residents of that area has there been a lot of death and destruction already I think this is a hugely significant time uh with the Russians advant es in that area and of course also towards harke and it’s against the backdrop of delayed um massive amounts of American har military hardware um which and also the potential that in the next sort of month or two f-16s are going to arrive and it looks like the Russians have really put a really an enormous amount of effort into the attacks in the East here and making some considerable progress uh you know only today president zalinski has cancelled all his overseas trips really highlighting the potential of this incursion here so I think it is hugely significant um it is clear that you know Ukrainian morale military morale particularly on the front line has been wavering a bit it’s been a really long hard winter and spring and seeing Russia potentially taking up to nine villages in this area uh shelling har with many casualties and harke is a massive City I mean is the Second City of Ukraine uh and I think it’s uh it’s something that we in the west particularly Nat and hopefully the us as well are looking at very closely because also um the head of intelligence of Ukraine uh is suggesting that actually Ukraine was taken a little bit by surprise from some of these incursions which to to me it’s a huge worry because um although we might not have NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine at the moment it’s our intelligence assets hoovering up everything that’s happening that should be feeding Ukraine all it needs so this shouldn’t have been a surprise so I think it’s very very very significant and a seminal Mo moment for the West um you know we’ve got to act now and really lean into this otherwise um you know Russia could make some serious advances um on the back of their current um attacks around harke and the other Villages which could well bring uh NATO and the UK much closer into this war in Ukraine heish on that note obviously zenki as you said he’s not going to Spain and Portugal he’s staying in Ukraine for what’s been happening obviously that highlights that this situation is severe a lot of people would say that this is just a stepping stone latest uh you know occupation to gaining control of H and as you said the second largest city it’s got a population of 1.4 million people How likely is it do you think that Russia will capture hen how significant would that be as an advantage for Russia oh the capture of har would would would be a a Kean seminal moment in in this war as you say 1.4 million now How likely is that I think at the moment that that would be a worst case scenario um if Hari fell to the Russians then it’s you know very much in the balance whether NATO would need to get demoner involved and that when I say that I mean boots in the ground and boots in the air as it were because W with that Taken um you know if there was a significant collapse in morale in Ukraine and and you could see that you know one just had you know a town a city the size of Birmingham if that was taken that that would absolutely you know shape the foundations of this country so I think it would shape the foundations of Ukraine and we cannot stand by and let that happen now it part of this is also I expect a massive deception move by by the Russians to try and draw Ukrainian forces around uh from the sort of middle of Ukraine heading looking down into Crimea where perhaps you know Russ is very concerned they might break through but whatever it is this is a really serious situation and I think um you know European leaders NATO leaders and the US uh need to make it quite clear to Putin that that actually th this would tip the balance this would get uh NATO troops involved now there will be various scalings here I think to begin with um it would mean that NATO would have to help out in the sort of air War as it were and as we’ve discussed before you know if Britain is happy to shoot down Iranian missiles F at Israeli cities and Iran is not a direct threat to the UK then it’s to me it’s incomprehensible that we wouldn’t shoot down Russian missiles fired at Ukraine cities because Russia is a direct threat to the UK at the moment Russia is creating the potential for war in Europe that would include the UK and I think the fall of K could be key element to making that happen so yeah I I think we are really on the tips of our toes here and uh something like this could really change the whole metric and dynamic and get us more closely involved because um if khi falls if morale Falls and the Russians start steaming quickly westwards then very very quickly we’ve got to um address the defense of the west of Europe because I think nobody who studies closely believes that Putin will stop at Europe and nobody who listened to Putin’s speech on the 9th of May and understood it uh now realizes that actually you know Ukraine is an enabling objective if we call it in military uh strategy terms you know the the key objective for Putin is conflict or certainly dressing down NATO that’s what he’s going to do that’s what he’s been telling us for years now so heish are you are you saying that the Ukrainian Army can’t you know control can’t kind of get the upper hand on making sure hake is not captured without the help of NATO without the help of its Western Alliance it can’t you know control this area by itself well Le let’s hope it can and as I said we we we always look at the worst case scenario uh but the worst case scenarios you see also the the most unlikely and the best case scenario in the best case um Ukraine will be able to divert troops to this area will’ll be able to make sure that there is enough you know missiles and artillery holding back the Russians we we keep hearing that that actually the Russians don’t have the logistics the ammunition the fuel and the manow to to do very much more than it’s doing at the moment but but um you know if you’d asked me this question two weeks ago whether KH would be under threat I would probably be saying I’d be really surpris if it was so I think you know war is a very fluid um activity and we must be on the balls of our feet so that there in the worst case scenario Ukraine might not be able to hold KH and as I think it hary falling would be a key moment in this battle that would change the whole Dynamics in NATO and Britain’s support to Ukraine because I think that would absolutely draw Us in so indirectly as it were we must do all that we can to ensure that Russia does not take harke um and give you know Ukraine the were with all bit intelligence and and also hurry all those heavy American ammunition and Military capability in as quickly as possible and let’s hope that those f-16s are closer to the har than at the moment we believe they might be heish it’s obviously clear that in the last few days Russia’s Army have made significant Headway as you say this is a a game Cher If you will to occupy and take this area on the north on the border but also take hu you as you say Russia is already occupying 18% of Ukraine if it takes haave it’s a large majority if you’re looking at this and just looking at the facts is it safe to say that Russia is winning this war and will win this war well I think Russia has you know the way that we’ve uh the Western leaders have approached Putin have given him the confidence uh to get on the front foot to get on the offensive uh really throughout the winter and for the last s of year or so it’s been pretty much stal mate along that front defensive line called the sovin line so you know I think it’s Putin thinks that Europe doesn’t have the stomach for the fight um there’s been so much talk about other things mainly elections in Europe a lot of European countries have been very slow uh to um you know fill up the ammunition dumps in Ukraine and you know for Putin that he you know he takes that as as us not being interested and um you know really uh emboldens him to crack on so absolutely I think this is this is an absolutely key time and those Western leaders who who hitherto have been more concerned about their elections later this year you know quite frankly better wake up because uh if they don’t and if har ke Falls um I think we’ll all be going to the recruiting centers not the polling stations uh later on this year so the the next few months are are more critical like set I would suggest in any of the months in the war really um from the very first few weeks when it looked like um ke might fall so you know having hard ke fall to me is is just something that cannot be allowed to happen and if it does happen the possibility of us all being engaged in the war of Europe becomes so much more likely it is key okay this area is the kind of the next stage but heish you’re obviously a former British Colonel a hypothet hypothetical situation you’re still working as a top colonel in the British Army would you be sending British soldiers boots on the ground to Ukraine right now I think the boots on the ground issue for NATO troops in Ukraine is very emotive um I tend to agree with president macron who is very keen to put this on the table unfortunately our own foreign secretary Lord Cameron dismissed this some weeks ago now it’s uh you in military strategy the worst thing you can do is to tell your enemy what you’re doing and what you’re not going to do and I think the fact that we so clearly signal to Russia that we don’t intend to put boots on the ground really has you know that that has shaped Putin’s thinking and because of that we’re now in a position where we really must think about putting uh boots on the ground you know certainly you know NATO aircraft if we can allow Ukraine to get air parity that sort of you know allows them to maneuver in the air at least that will make a significant difference because at the moment Russia’s got air superiority and can you know really do what it likes and um you know if if uh khaki Falls then NATO is going to have to block Russia further westwards now it is probably better to block Russia in Ukraine rather than give them that momentum of charging across Ukraine to to to hit the Border of NATO as it were so the plans must be in place um to do that and you know I am sure that there are plans being made for exactly this that again they’re not the most likely but they are the worst case so yeah we we must look at that I think people in this country U must realize quite what a serious position we’re in I think you know back in 1939 uh people in this country did not think we’re being involved in a war with Hitler in Europe now Putin is C of the same cloth as Hitler um you know he he wants to dominate Europe um and we we’ve got absolutely realize that that’s the case and uh you know we have got to make sure that we put out the right signals to Putin that we will not allow him to um you know take H and start steaming westwards I think it I think it’s really that serious at the moment and you know when when zilinski decides not to travel and he’s done a great job of globe trotting around the world to get some support but if he feels it’s too dangerous for him to get out of ke then we need to take serious note of that well on that note heish zalinsky he’s pleaded yet again with International Partners stating that Ukraine’s air defense must be strengthened you and I have spoken about air control at Great Lengths what is the actual technology the actual military air equipment that Ukraine needs to be able to you know stay in control and avoid H being taken by Russia well first of all it’s about ammunition it’s about air defense missiles uh people have heard of Patriots and other type type of these missiles and you know they’re very expensive and they’re getting used up I mean what what what Russia is doing in this war is using what we call mass in other words you know as much as possible thousands of Tanks thousands of drones thousands of missiles and what that does is really sort of overload the defensive situation nobody before this war envisaged that somebody would use thousands of drones and you again need thousands of missiles to knock them down um and that that is the issue it’s a pure numbers and mass game the other element the air defense of course are the fighter jets which Ukraine has not had we know that these f-16s are are just about ready and the F-16 should vastly overmatch you know what Russia has but it is a key element to it but um you know this is something that people you know in this you in in NATO and this country are learning sort of almost on the hoof this this air defense piece you know the the last sort of wars and battles I were involved in air defense wasn’t a huge issue now is absolutely fundamental to it so you know the delay of that 61 billion pounds worth of of American military aid has been hugely significant because a lot of those air defense stocks have absolutely been Hing down to to a bare minimum so it is really again I talk about Mass Russia’s got Mass we we don’t and and at the moment it is it is mass of of a defense missiles massive fighter jets that Ukraine needs to hold Russia and it’s it’s the person that holds on longest that will prevail and you know only this week um Putin has sacked his his defense Chief shyu and bought in an economist who has absolutely no military experience but the inference here is that Putin wants his economy putting absolutely on a war footing so that he can make more missiles more tanks more artillery shells more fighter jets than NATO and and keep holding on because he knows the longer that he can hold on uh the more likely that the uh Parliament in Europe uh will will appease him um because you know they just don’t have the stomach to to keep going and would prefer to see Ukraine fall but what they they really are not getting is that Ukraine won’t be the end of it if Ukraine does fall well on that out heish with with you said Putin he’s um replaced his defense minister with an economist as you said that’s an unprecedented move but it’s very timely and what’s happening in Russia kind of prompting speculation that Russia you know is having economic issues they’ve put a lot of their GDP into military do you think that Vladimir Putin is budgeting for a World War II an all out War well that that’s what he’s saying that’s what he said on the ninth of May and you know that is what he has been saying for the last two years probably longer um it’s just that we’ve chosen to ignore it stick our heads in the S and you know to put in Economist who absolutely has no military experience but apparently is very good at what he does you know as a count as a bean counter really focuses on absolutely he is preparing for the long term here and you know he said in his night the B speech you know in virtually in clear language that he was preparing his forces uh to face down NATO and um you know that all the indications are uh you got tractor factories being turned into Tank Lines um but I think you know another thing that we learned this week is actually recruits are really becoming a bit of an issue for for Putin not least you know 400,000 casualties seems to be the figure people are talking about and there is talk that Putin is going to have to start recruiting um from the the elites of St Petersburg and and Moscow the white Russians as it were um because uh the hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russians from the East you know are you those recruits are drying up and I think that will really completely change the metric yeah once those educated and wealthy people in those countries those cities rather start seeing their young men coming back in boxes that might well change the metric rather quickly more quickly than anything else well I want to stay on this conscription because this is an interesting point that I want to bring up and I think it goes to show how committed Putin is to winning this allout war and staying in it from for the Long Haul but also definitely showing that comparison between him and Hitler and that dictatorial nature that they both have but I want to read you this quote from the telegraph that we’ve spoken about earlier this week the telegraph reported we can now definitively say after much research that Moscow has been conscripting Ukrainian youth from across the occupied territories to serve in the Army not only that but Ukrainian intelligence has recorded many cases in which conscripts have ended up on the front lines this is not just a moral crime but a war crime Putin is literally making ukrainians in occupied areas fight for Russia’s Army what do you think this says about this man well well you know simply it says you know he’s completely morally bankrupt you know this is the sort of thing Hitler did and um you know that as I said you know they are cut of the same cloth they in these legally occupied areas um I cannot believe that many if any of these Ukrainian men have volunteered to go into the front line um they will be there uh made to attack their their country folk and I expect if they turn around that they’ll get shot because that’s that’s the way the Russian army Works they have a a group units um behind the front line who basically anybody turns around doesn’t want to fight are forced to go back or they’re shot so yeah I mean absolutely this this is a war crime um it shows the desperation it shows that um you know Putin is prepared to put anybody in the front line I think again this is something that you know we in the liberal West need to get get a hold of Putin has absolutely no concern about civilian casualties or military casualties you know even his own he is only interested in the end State and that is uh securing Ukraine in his view back to the old sort of Soviet Union and he sees nothing getting in his way yeah um you know ultimately he’s getting an old man now and um you know he he wants to be seen as the second pet of the great before he’s finished uh interesting enough some of the reshuffling going on in the Kremlin at the moment might also suggest that some of his fellow gangsters are getting a little bit nervous as well well but you know be under No Illusion that there is nothing that Putin won’t do to try and Achieve success and using Ukrainian conscripts to fight their own people no doubt under the sword is just another example of what he’s prepared to do also goes to show that you know it calls into question I guess how many followers puton really has and as you said he’s getting older in in 70s you never know how many followers he’ll have once he you know passes on but I want to stick with what’s happening this week now heish just a final question for you China’s xiin ping is hosting Putin on Thursday two years after declaring that they had a No Limits partnership with what we were speaking about before with you know hiring an economist as opposed to a defense minister do you think that pu Putin could ever turn to China for financial help to keep this war going well in effect he is um you know the Chinese are buying most of um Russia hydrocarbons oil and gas at the moment replacing that that that used to go to the West so of course that is very important um money going into the Russian economy um most of the high tech in Russian Weaponry uh hither to came from the west and sanctions are beginning to bite it would appear that you know China is filling some of that Gap um and and China is you know trying to change the world World Order um it wants to see itself as the the the superpower at the moment there is only one real superpower and that’s the US and China wants to be along that you know China has no Scruples about dealing with you know some of the dictor countries around the world Russia uh belus uh North Korea Venezuela um it’s just trying to exert influence but you know I I I think that the the one thing that we must keep in the back of their mind is of course that the biggest market for China is the European Union the UK and the US yeah um you know Russia although has become more significant is still fairly small so it’s good to hear the US really putting the pressure on Beijing as the UK should as well but at the moment China is being very unhelpful and keeping you know the the coffers of Russia stoked up and and you know a huge concern that we must not take our AIS yes they are you know toying with both obviously helping Russia with their economy while being way too reliant on the west West’s investment so it would probably be too tricky to get get in bed completely with Russia but hey Mr Bretton Gordon thank you so much for your time today thanks [Music]

British Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon joins Talk’s International Correspondent Maddie Hale to discuss Russia’s latest offensive in Ukraine.

Hamish emphasises the gravity of the situation and the potential for Putin’s Russia to take control of Kharkiv in Ukraine.

Maddie and Hamish analyse the potential consequences of not providing adequate support to Ukraine, and touch on Putin’s desperation, including the reported conscription of Ukrainian youth to fight in the war.

China’s increasing influence in Russia is also touched upon, as Xi Jinping hosted Putin, with China buying most of Russia’s hydrocarbons and filling some of the gap left by western sanctions.

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