Russia doesn’t have the capacity to seize Kharkiv right now: General Jack Keane

Russia doesn’t have the capacity to seize Kharkiv right now: General Jack Keane

it’s now been 2 years and 3 months since Russia invaded Ukraine thinking it would take them just a week or so not much more to knock it over instead ukrainians fought like lions they beat the Russians back but now it’s ugly Ukraine is running out of men they’ve had so many losses so it’s lower the recruitment age from 27 to 25 who’s also run short of ammunition thanks in large part to right-wing Republican politics ions in the US blocking fresh supplies for half a year until last month and now Russia is boasting it’s got new recruits has more than half a million soldiers in Ukraine and has launched fresh attacks towards kak in Ukraine’s West well joining me to discuss what’s happening in Ukraine its chances plus Israel’s Advance now on Rafa in the Gaza Strip is General Jack Kean he’s a retired forar General who served as Vice Chief of Staff of the United States Army now chairman of the institute for the study of War General Jack Keane great to see you again Russia has increased its attacks in Ukraine over the past couple of weeks has blown up a lot of the country’s electricity Supply there’s blackouts there uh in in in a lot of the uh cities it’s supposedly thrown in more troops as well it now says it’s have it’s it’s got more than half a million soldiers in Ukraine Ukraine on the other hand is running out of soldiers and ammunition how much danger is Ukraine now in because this sounds quite serious well first of all certainly what has happened that the facts on the ground are what they are uh in terms of the air campaign that Russia is running a few months ago the ukrainians were knocking out the majority of the drones and the missiles that were being fired at their major cities infrastructure and their energy portion of it now the majority of those drones and missiles get through and that’s the harsh reality of of the shortage of the of the missiles and interceptors that the ukrainians need they are on the way some of them are already there and uh we’re attempting to rush this as quickly as possible uh and eventually hopefully Ukraine will return to a more stable situation when they get all of those interceptors on the ground the Russians as you noted have made some significant tactical gains not only in the Southeast in the dbass region but most recently and somewhat alarmingly in the vicinity of Kev a city that Russia had captured and Ukraine’s took took it back uh in 22 quite remarkably and took a lot of land what the what the Russians are doing Andrew is establishing a buffer zone uh right there on the border with Ukraine because the what the ukrainians have been doing is going right up to the Russian border at least within a couple of miles of it and firing into Russia particularly with their drones and they’re not able to fire any of the US Long Range Systems which is absolutely outrageous but nonetheless the Russians are tired of that and establishing this buffer zone we don’t think at The Institute for study of war that Russia has the capacity at least right now to seize Kev and collapse the Ukrainian defenses in that area so what we’re hoping for certainly is that the ammunitions for the uh to help Ukraine defend on the ground as well as on the air will get there soonest you mentioned Russian people uh on the ground there the 500,000 may be a bit of Russian exaggeration but nonetheless they have increased their numbers and they’ve replenished them with a lot of new troops Ukraine just changed their draft law move them from 27 to 25 to begin conscription that’ll get them about 70,000 more they have to be trained and they do have uh Manpower shortages all the that said we don’t see Russia being able to to take Ukraine take their major cities uh in the near term we believe the replenishment of the weapons ammunitions will help Ukraine to defend itself long range attacks these are long range missiles three 3 to 400 kilometers in uh in length uh they’re in ukrainians hands now finally uh after months of uh Ukrainian asking for these weapons they have the cruise missiles from the French and also from the Brits f-16s are due to arrive uh in the summer and hopefully be deploy be flyable uh in in the early fall for sure so our our best estimate here is Ukraine is going to be able to hold on to its territory that it has whether how much territory can take back remains to be seen and that would likely largely be done uh in 25 yes um it’s a change from a year ago of course General when we were all talking about you know the spring summer offensive that Ukraine would launch that of course didn’t get the advances Ukraine certainly had hoped now we’re not talking about that we’re talking about Ukraine defense so uh that’s already a grim let us hope but um how do you then see this ending when we’re not even talking as I say about Ukraine a Ukrainian counter attack to conamore territory well I think what has happened there’s some positive things here you know the grain shipments out of Ukraine are continuing because the Ukraine is driven back uh the Russian Navy in in the Black Sea they now have these long range missile systems and they fully intend to uh attack Russian bases in Crimea and reduce them so this the long range deep attack as we call it an military that Ukraine has capability to do I think will be quite effective how much they’re going to be able to uh Garner offensive operations I do think limited offensive operations particularly against Russia’s offensive operations when they culminate and they’re very vulnerable and some of the operations they’ve just conducted in the Southeastern part of the dbass if the ukrainians had the capability they could have counterattacked and took uh more ter teritory as a result of it they did not have that capability or they knew the option was there for them I believe they will have that come the summer and the fall and we’ll see if they can’t make some limited progress the idea of a major counter offensive to take a huge amount of territory given the Russian defens and depth that’s pretty much off the table yes I think this war will last a long time yet unfortunately with so much more suffering uh but the US Secretary of stay Anthony blinkin he’s been in Ukraine this week saying it’s got American support and also been playing guitar in a cafe in ke here he [Music] is General King what did you make of that a touching show of solidarity or uh perhaps a little bit to uh I don’t know lacking in in gravitas well first of all uh it is quite remarkable in Kei for example I’ve been there and the restaurants and the cafes and in this case you know a club are very active and and quite thriving look at I it’s a lighter moment uh I’m not making too much out of it I think the secretary was likely invited to do this I don’t think he he was forcing himself uh trying to find a nightclub where he could uh play some music I think they invited him and and probably pretty tough to turn down uh an invitation by his host so U I didn’t realize he can play a guitar I wish he was a little bit more tough-minded than some of the other issues that the United States is facing yes that may well be well in fact on one of them uh Israel uh has look there’s just so much trouble around the world General I unbelievable uh how the world has changed Israel has stepped up its invasion of the last City in Gaza that it hasn’t yet searched that is rougher right on the south on the gaza’s border with Egypt how is that going yeah this is early stages hundreds of thousands of uh gazin have moved out of the Rafa area at the request of the Israeli somewhere around 500,000 some people say it’s as high as 800,000 we think that’s that’s a little high but 500 about 500,000 uh have moved uh they haven’t moved uh to on Asis Oasis or anything they moved to another 10th City where where things I’m sure are pretty tough on them but at least they’re away from the fighting that’s taking place in Rafa this is early stages on the ground uh the Israelis are being very careful because they know there’s still people in Gaza they they blocked out the whole city in terms of districts 270 districts and they they call ahead and tell them that they’re coming into say District 27 to 48 please get out of there and so they’re telling Hamas where they’re going and pretty much when they’re going as a major concession to help the civilians get out of there of course Hamas doesn’t really want the civilians to leave I mean that it’s so diabolical and Sinister they really want the marom as they refer to their word they would welcome another 10 or 20,000 uh gazin killed because of it suits their purposes in terms of international condemnation of Israel and political isolation of it Israel is determin to to take down those four battalions that are there to see if they can get their hands on the the leaders of Hamas which are in that area and also hopefully the this military pressure uh what the IDF is thinking would force senoir the head of Hamas on the ground in Gaza to come to the negotiating table and release hostages that’s one of the intents here in addition to taking down the uh four or so battalions but one of the things I want to point out to our audience here the 300 or so kilometers of of tunnels have really been a formidable challenge for the Israelis right now in Northern Gaza after Northern Gaza was cleared the Israelis are fighting again in there and the reason is is simply that the Israelis come in clear an area some of the fighters fight some of them leave to come back another day when the Israelis are not there and and the tunnels afford them the protection and the concealment to do that despite the number of tunnels they’ve attempted to destroy I’ve never seen a a a complex situation like this in an urban setting uh where ground combat is is is being undertaken it is quite a challenge and Israelis admit uh Andrew that the tunnel complexes are far more extensive than anything they had imagined can you imagine all that Aid money that’s been diverted by Hamas and building the tunnels you know the efforts you describe of trying to protect civilian deaths I’ve seen no modern Army go that far as Israel has and to see a Labor uh Member of Parliament a labor Senator uh say oh Israel is committing genocide when you see in contrast what it is trying to achieve it’s just amazing to me that people can be so blind General Jack King thank you so much indeed for your time yeah great talking Andrew thank you

Former US Army vice chief of staff General Jack Keane says he doesn’t believe Russia has the capacity to seize Kharkiv at least for right now.

Mr Keane joined Sky News host Andrew Bolt to discuss the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war.

“On the ground the Russians have made some significant tactical gains not only in the southeast and the Donbas region but most recently and somewhat alarmingly in the vicinity of Kharkiv,” he told Sky News host Andrew Bolt.

“A city that Russia had captured and Ukraine’s took it back in 2022, quite remarkably it took a lot of land.

“We don’t think that the Institute for the Study of War that Russia has the capacity at least right now to seize Kharkiv and collapse the Ukrainian defences in that area.”