Russia claims it downed 10 ATACMS missiles & interview with Defence Secretary Grant Shapps

Russia claims it downed 10 ATACMS missiles & interview with Defence Secretary Grant Shapps

please note today’s episode was recorded before the assassination attempt on Slovakia’s prime minister Robert Foo we will be covering the ramifications in tomorrow’s episode I’m Francis dley and this is Ukraine the latest today we discuss the fast moving situation on the front line as Russia continues its assaults near KH plus we analyze controversy stoked by the US Secretary of State Anthony blinken’s visit to keev and sit down for an exclusive interview with the British defense secretary Grant shaps bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with Victory if we give president zalinski the tools the ukrainians will finish the job Slava ukraini nobody’s going to break us we’re strong we’re ukrainians every weekday we sit down with leading journalists from the telegraphs London news room and our teams reporting on the ground to bring you the latest news and analysis on the war in Ukraine it’s Wednesday the 15th of May 2 years and 82 days since the fullscale invasion began and today I’m joined by our associate editor of Defense Dominic Nichols the KE Independence Nate osta live from Georgia and Michael boner from the Rand Corporation in Washington DC for an update on urgent weapons deliveries to Ukraine I started first by asking Dom however for the latest news from the Battlefront well hi Francis hi everybody hi Nate Michael so heavy defensive battles are ongoing in harkee oblast but the situation has somewhat stabilized that’s the view of Nazar vishin the spokesperson of the kitzia group of forces who speaking this morning Russia is thought to have pushed about 30,000 soldiers into this current fight in the Northeast speaking on National radio said Russian forces are trying to gain a foothold on a sizable strip of Border settlements for further advancement fighting continues in the lukanski and vosen sectors Russian forces are trying to gain a foothold there but Ukrainian troops are not allowing them to do so now the head of the Ukrainian police force in the H region has described the situation in the Bordertown there as extremely difficult Alexi KIVI V chanks police uh Chief said this morning Russian forces are establishing positions inside the town posting on Facebook Mr kski said the situation is extremely difficult the enemy is taking positions on the streets of the town of of chanks this comes after well yesterday Russian forces Unleashed a very heavy attack on the town using air strikes Glide bombs drones artillery the uh Institute for the study of war the think tank in the US say the pace however of Russia Russian offensive operations in the northern Harkey oblast appears to have slowed over the last 24 hours their assessment is that Russian forces are prioritizing the creation of a buffer zone along the border um rather than go for deep penetration of har oblast they note several Russian and Ukrainian sources that have reported Russian troops are using new tactics in the area they seem to be going for smaller assault groups of no more than five people to to push into positions it’s the kind of Jenga thing again that we’ve spoken of five people to try and get in um and those are are successful merging together into kind of larger and larger strike groups now isw say that this use of small assault groups um however may be contributing to higher Russian Manpower material losses and slowing the overall pace of the offensive in that in that area otherwise across the country very little movement elsewhere still a lot of lot of shelling civilians killed and injured in Deno MV after strikes yesterday on on X president zalinski has said to increase protection against Russian Terror our air defense must be strengthened including by expanding the fighter jet Coalition and Expediting training and delivery we know what capabilities our partners have clear political decisions are needed now he’s also this is president zinski he’s canell a visit to Spain and Portugal authorities was reported that earlier today CNN Portugal and other media actually saying it was because of the renewed ground assault around harke which seems likely King Philipe of Spain was due to hold a reception for president zalinski on Friday and he zalinski this is has also had also been expected to sign a bilateral security cooperation agreement with Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sanchez now a spokesperson for the Portuguese government said zinsky had canceled the visit but did not give a reason Spanish government said it wouldn’t comment on security matters however president linsky’s press secretary Sergey nikov wrote on Facebook that the president had ordered all international events scheduled for the coming days to be postponed and new dates coordinated elsewhere Ukraine’s state-owned grid operator said speaking yesterday said that emergency power Cuts will be introduced following the well Russia’s recent assault across the country’s energy infrastructure there were emergency shutdowns across Ukraine implemented from 9:00 p.m. to midnight yesterday according to ukra ago um they’ve not said if there’s any more or given any times or dates for the next over the next days when there’ll be similar shutdowns next and in his first statement since taking up the post that I have seen please correct me if I’m wrong Russia’s new defense minister Andre bellof said yesterday that his main priority is to win the war in Ukraine quote with minimal human losses now he was speaking yesterday after being officially appointed he was laying out his priorities in his role uh the key task he said remains achieving Victory ensuring the achievement of the military political goals of the special military nonsense sorry I made up the last bit um he’s carried on at the same time I want to specifically emphasize this with minimal human losses so I see him there as setting himself up for his first disagreement with his new boss um as the way Putin wants his War conducted and the way he’s prepared his forces and and his country to achieve that does not lend itself to the minimizing of uh human losses unless bellof thinks 823 casualties a day which was the average in April coming from a western official last time I spoke with one is minimal so we will we’ll watch to see quite what he means by minimal human losses couple more the keave independent reporting today that five men and one one woman accused of helping Russian forces direct a missile attack on a residential building that killed 10 people and injured over 80 have been arrested this comes from the sbu the security service of Ukraine they they put an announcement out earlier today you may remember this was the double tap isander missile strike on the city of PK in donet oblast on October 7th last year 10 people died in the attack including several rescue workers who had gone to the scene of the first missile strike only to be hit by another around 40 minutes later the sbu said all the suspects have been recruited through Telegram channels on which they had posted anti- Ukraine content and though they acted separately the sbu said their actions were all coordinated by a Russian FSB Handler Federal Security Service Handler who has been identified all six individuals have been charged with treason and face up to life in prison and finally for me a play in three parts Francis so first US Secretary of State Anthony blinkin in Keef assures Ukrainian leaders that billions of dollars worth of am American military aid is on its way and will make a real difference on the battlefield next Russia’s foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria zacharova says Moscow will destroy all US military equipment supplied to Ukraine and finally despite footage showing something exploding at the belback Airfield just outside sevastopol Russia’s defense Ministry claims its Air Force last night destroyed all 10 aam’s missiles fired at crier oh sorry and finally finally speaking of Anthony blinkin Secretary of State for the US he took to the stage in a basement bar in keev last night playing guitar with the Ukrainian band belting out Neil Young’s um 1989 hit Rocking In The Free World uh the US Secretary of State joined band 19.99 on stage at bman dictat in the Ukrainian Capital um I think you’re going to talk more about this in a moment Francis but that that bar it was a bar I had to seek Sheltering during an air raid alert when we last visited in February Francis thanks Tom before I dive into the politic iCal section is worth saying that Anthony blinken’s performance has really divided opinion while some view it as an effective way of expressing support for key visually for others including many ukrainians it’s tone deaf given the seriousness of the situation at the front and the half-hearted nature of American support in recent months the fact is Russia is pushing in the hope of a breakthrough before the presidential election in November which would have the added benefit of humiliating Biden and bolstering the Republicans who want the war to end even if it means Russia gaining sizable amounts of territory yes that musical inlude has successfully drawn attention to the fact that blinkin is in ke but optically especially for an American audience one has to wonder whether it makes it look like the war is already won which would simply be untrue and would strengthen those who argue that funding for Ukraine should end because of its expense and it not being necessary Lincoln is still in Ukraine by the way and we’re coming to the updates now he visited a grain Depot this morning praising ke’s incredible adaptation and saying that before 2022 Ukraine had been one of the bread baskets of the world and still remains that so to quote him in full getting the Black Sea corridor open again and moving the Russian Navy out finding new routes or expanding old ones like the danu like land Crossings and all of that has been the result of Ukrainian determination and Ingenuity but it’s also been the result of support that Ukraine’s received from the United States that may be so and no doubt there’ll be some other very interesting things that will come out of this visit some of which we’ll only learn in the days and weeks afterwards but it will be that divisive performance that binkin gave last night that people will remember now as Dom mentioned speaking to the seriousness of the situation around KH ke zinsky has suspended all International visits for the facil future we’re in a precarious moment indeed as Ukraine awaits the ammunition and weaponry it has been promised and more on that with our guest Michael shortly the response from Moscow to blinken’s visit has been predictably robust Russia’s foreign Ministry spokeswoman as Dom said has said Moscow will destroy all US military equipment supplied to Ukraine something that also of course has implications for all of the other countes supplying weapons we discussed yesterday that story that Estonia was said to be actively considering sending troops to Western Ukraine for non-combat roles in order to free up men at the front unsurprisingly that story is cause quite a stir and the president’s advisor madis Ry who was reported to have made those remarks has since stated after our broadcast yesterday that he didn’t tell any journalists that the Estonian government is currently deciding to whether or not to send units to Ukraine however in the statement he did put out he underscored the following and I’m quoting directly here my message is that Estonia has not rolled out any option for helping Ukraine all options for helping Ukraine are still under discussion neither we nor our allies should have any restrictions on helping Ukraine because setting them what we will that we will help Ukraine until now that’s their error in the transcription by the way and not taking a step further would only help Russia in continuing its aggression so it goes without saying that we and our allies analyze different scenarios So reading between the lines here robustness from Estonia and to stress I’m speculating in what follows it sounds as if this is a conversation about whether to send troops or not for some kind of role happening behind closed doors which somehow got out either with a journalist reporting something that was supposed to be off the Record or a misunderstanding around a hypothetical scenario being discussed at high levels either that or it was a deliberate leak to send Moscow a clear message without doing so officially hence the subsequent retraction either way it’s unlikely a story that came from nowhere and it speaks to the more hawkish position that Estonia has and whether that is a position that we will see publicly increasingly over the coming weeks and months or whether that would be something that remains behind Coast doors but in conversations happening with European allies remains to be seen but always a country to watch Estonia now finally before we turn to Nate in Georgia where the political situation is at fever pitch a word on the state of Ukraine’s finances in light of the discussion about Moscow putting itself more strongly onto a war economy footing following those reshuffles the European bank for reconstruction and development has slashed its growth forecast for Ukraine and said the toll of two years of fighting there was also Rippling into neighboring regions so its Chief economists said the conflict was casting a long Shadow as Russia’s escalation takes its toll on power plants and forced keev to rush key workers to the front line quote mobilizing additional men to fight will hit the economy and the destruction of power generation is something that will have repercussions the situation is challenging again it Bears repeating that Ukraine is only able to continue to finance and fight this war via the support it is receiving from its allies when we interviewed the German ambassador yesterday he stressed the level of financial support keeve receives from Berlin yes those kind of stories don’t grab the headlines in the same way that weapons donations do but just as an army marches on its stomach a country runs on its currency and I think we’re going to see the economic front become increasingly important in the coming months it could be what ultimately finishes off either side but before we take the temperature explicitly on Western weapons deliveries with Michael which is as well equally vital let’s turn now to another major political story we reported yesterday that the situation continues to be fraught in Georgia in the hours before the final vote on the so-called Russia bill which took place last night NATO silia thank you very much for coming and joining us again on Ukraine the latest you’re a journalist at the KE independent you’re on the ground there in Georgia so first of all what happened with that vote and what is the atmosphere there now well thanks for having me again as we know the vote the final vote happened yesterday and it was approved by 84 members of parliament with 30 in opposition it’s not the final step of the legislative process it will still go to the president who has said that she will veto it and then after this there’s a kind of indefinite amount of time not set by uh statute or whatever before it returns to the Parliament and then they I mean they have the majority to vote it to overturn The veto so that’s the where we’re at right now but as far as it stands I mean I think it’s I think it’s going to be enacted there’s it doesn’t seem like the government has any reason to back down and the opposition doesn’t have the tools to prevent it so I was at the parliament yesterday and right before the vote was announced I would say the mood was still pretty good despite the the ongoing police brutality and the fact that it seems clear that the protests haven’t changed the government’s mind well thank you Nate you mentioned the protesters there and the heavy-handed police presence I mean just to underscore for listeners these are enormous protests tens of thousands of people on the streets of delitti blocking all of the roads around the parliament I just wanted to get your sense Nate I mean when people are talking to you about this is this seen as a truly historic protest or is this something that people in Georgia are used to well I think I mean that’s it is important to underscore and really the it’s hard to get a sense of the scale I mean it has effectively paralyzed the city it’s not just in front of the parliament it’s all over the city center and due to the geographical layout of the city it’s basically stopped traffic from left and right sides of the city so it’s impossible to escape the effects of it and I do think people know that this is a historical moment I mean not just because these are probably the biggest protests in Georgia’s history from what we’ve heard but that this is seen as a really pivotal moment I mean a choice between the west and Russia and I just want to add one one other uh thing that’s associated with the protests so the police said that they arrested two American citizens at the protest one of whom I know personally and later A Member of Parliament not of georgean dream but of a Affiliated party blamed this one of the Americans for coming to Georgia and accused them of trying to start a revolution and I think are really I mean not just that an American was arrested but that these accusations of starting a revolution and I think there are some other things thrown around about spies and so on this is really reminiscent of uh what happens in Russia and other places like this where any kind of opposition any Western figure is accused of forting Revolution thank you Nate and just one final question as you say the presumption is that this will pass once it’s been vetoed by the president and goes back to the parliament once it passes what are the next steps what are protesters saying to you will happen is there going to be continued protests or will this be an accepted chalk down as a loss but it will be another battle to come on another front presumably as the parliament tries to do something else which may bring it back closer to Russia’s orbit right so this is all leading up to the Parliamentary elections and and I think the government is counting on protesters losing energy over the summer and they’ve more or less said this directly that they think people’s attentions will Wayne in the summer but I don’t see any indication that people are ready to give up I mean they may not come out every single day but they know that if they stop and there isn’t this attention going into the election that Georg and dream might win and that will not just be a victory for the law but I mean that’s a a kind of chapter ending for Georgia I think people understand this well thank you very much Nate for your time Dom do you have any questions for Nate before we go to our next guest Michael yeah just one quickly if I may uh thanks Francis hi Nate I’m great to to have you on can you talk to me a little bit talk to us a little bit about the demographic of the people protesting it’s 16 years now since the 2008 War so I wonder how much that is in the public conscience as a lived experience or whether it’s people referring to it as history and how much of that the war there and the still occupied areas of Georgia is sort of baked into public Consciousness as a learn thing or an experiencing and and what that’s doing for the the young protesters yeah well I think the demographics have been widely reported on I mean they’re they are mostly young people although I want to be careful to say that it’s not just young people and there are plenty of older people there as well and this the Russia aspect I think is pretty obvious a lot of people while they may not remember the the war specifically I mean this is uh something that’s in the public Consciousness very openly and they know and this is evident in all of the signs and and the things that they say that they don’t want to be part of Russia that’s I mean I think the government is when you speak to uh journalists they will say that it’s not so obvious that the government is necessarily pro-russian per se uh maybe their interests align but the sentiment that you hear from young people is that this government is pro Russian or even directly Russian and in a large part this is due to the war and the occupied territories and so on and and you will see many signs of the Georgia occupies sorry Russia occupies 20% of Georgia and so on and this is a very popular sentiment well Nate thank you very much for your time we’ll be sure to return to you as things develop in Georgia stay safe out there now we’ll continue to keep an eye on things but now it’s our pleasure to welcome back to the podcast Michael boner of the Rand Corporation calling in from Washington DC now Michael thanks again for your time time for coming on the last time we had you on we were discussing this vital question of whether Europe can plug the Gap left by the United States were Washington to greatly reduce its support we’ll discuss that again later but first you’ve been crunching the numbers regarding us shell production and the state of play with regard to new weapons orders and the implications for possible delivery times so where are we on that first of all now that the $60 billion Aid package has passed good afternoon Francis thank you once again for having me on so now that the supplemental and all has passed that sets the round of the next orders so as we talked about last time the shell production for this year and a little bit of next year had already been placed so there’s a 12 to 18 month for shells for some of the missiles it’s it’s closer to two or three years so the good news is given wi the supplemental was passed it does mean that continued ramp up and path to 100,000 shells per month over the next 18 to 24 months does appear to be back on track that being said for a similar story is there for the rocket artillery the gimmers the the guided missiles the shorter ones that come from the himars so so those efforts are on track that being said as was previously reported on the Pod just talking about where the money is going from only a portion of the actual supplementals going directly to Ukraine a large portion of it is simply um purchasing and repurchasing stocks that were drawn down one one note is actually some of the procurement quantities in the base budget were slightly reduced so even though it was 60 billion and of that 30 billion is chunk to buy new weapons to backfill five to 10 billion of that actually might have come from budget games earlier on so that hasn’t been reported as much but that’s a a secondary Point additionally for the longer range Munitions whether it’s surfaced air missiles or others um the focus has been procuring up to maximum capacity of existing factories there’s not really an expansion to new facilities so those the US publishes are Max production rates and have for years and with the exception of Patriot missiles that really hasn’t changed that much thank you m i me is it fair to say therefore that the West is considerably behind where it needs to be that’s definitely accurate I I will say that as mentioned yesterday by the Ambassador from Germany as well as several European purchases that have gone a little under the radar some of the expansion is actually a little higher than what was that I discussed a couple months ago but it’s still several years behind where it should be if you were trying to ramp up to True need interesting now you’ve written a piece for the Telegraph and if I may quote yourself at you just to give us a sense of your argument if the plan is to push for a defensive stalemate akin to Korea the Estonian plan where 4,800 anti-air missiles are needed annually is sufficient even without us involvement so long as European NATO has no restrictions on stop how draw downs and purchases what it needs from any Global Source if the path to Victory is to fully expel Russian forces by putting Ukraine on the offensive in the next two years us support and Broad NATO Investments exceeding the Estonian plan may be required so looking at the figures Michael regarding those statements what do you think is the strategy behind the headlines where is the West actually directing itself at the moment in terms of what it wants Ukraine to achieve just based on the figures alone and ignoring the political remarks statements made by presidents and other leaders uh I don’t think there’s um I apologize I don’t think there’s a direct plan or at least a consensus plan at this point in time I haven’t really seen anything that has demonstrated there’s a true consensus on a theory of Victory or how much support is necessary I I don’t mean that just from public I just there’s not a significant correlation or sharing amongst allies about where I mean I realize we have these lines of effort but outside of artillery production there really haven’t been stated goals that that align or a clear theory of victory that appears to be articulated I think the only thing we can say is that there’s a certain artillery demand that Ukraine is articulated and that’s being worked towards but beyond that I’m not quite sure there’s a clear path for development or production at this time and just one final question me before handing over to Dom who I know is champing at the bit to to ask questions as well the Czech plan of course was widely discussed and it unifying Europe on an approach to shells and other Weaponry how successful has that been in terms of mobilizing Europe in the way that Ukraine requires so I will say this for the check I have not seen at what the actual rate of deliveries are that being said we we have seen Beyond governments even citizen groups contributing such as the the Slovak group where they raised money to directly support and purchase shells I do think the check initiative is a way to help because it is an Avenue to purchasing from International stocks so that definitely helps and I talk in my piece This Global sourcing to bridge the gap given that that while mrrone and others have have wanted to focus on a kind of a European focused production the check initiative has allowed from these Global stocks that are able to bridge the gap so that actually I think is very positive as it’s being implemented now Mar Dom here thanks so much for joining us here a couple of questions if I may Francis has somewhat stolen my sandwiches on that last one but I’ll plow on anyway what these eight capability coalitions that the um external supporters of Ukraine have set up based around the Ukraine defense contact group The the Ramstein initiative if you like um how effective are they I mean you I look at them and I see good words being said and you got Petra pavl talking about finding a load of um Ary rounds on the open market but of course politicians love to demonstrate energy and activity and momentum and drive and purpose and a plan and and I just wonder if this if this is actually a coherent plan that’s doing something and all knitting together in a coordinated fashion or just a bit of or too much political theater I mean I I’ll say this I’m not I’ve not seen anything that really shows there’s a coordinated plan I will say that it does appear that some individual Nations or sorry some suppliers like mdba etc for air defense are significantly ramping up production as our Iris T however one of the issues that I don’t think has really been addressed or talked about most Munitions Productions in the west are in locations where people don’t live so there’s a fundamental Personnel issue of actually producing and and ramping up production just because you have to get the workers and then if you want to build new factories actually making that happen and I haven’t seen really any discussion about no kidding building additional capacity and so until we really see commitments to put production either in larger population centers near larger cities like Iris tea is made in a city in a town in Germany of 20,000 people so it’s not just that for some of these production lines of effort that it’s paying the money it’s also going to be a lot of effort at the human coordination side that has to be going concurrently and we’re not also I’m I’m not seeing anywhere where there’s discussion of building new Factories near Berlin or London or other population centers where you can draw on to ramp up production which will likely be needed or efforts to actually bring people to where factories are in some sort of temporary housing setup there’s a lot more than just saying we want to build this and we want to place contracts there has to be a lot of know broad sort of hole of government efforts that I don’t see any evidence that there really been major consults with it doesn’t mean they don’t exist but there has many public discussion of any of those you know secondary downstreams of waving and streamlining permitting procuring spaces none of those sort of Downstream industrial base efforts so until I really see literal Earth moving on the ground it’s still somewhere in that discussion phase Vice the contract Ding and true ramping up phase yeah and and as we were chatting there P thanks P for getting in touch he he reminds me that the the viar triangle initiative this is Poland and oh God who is it Germany Lithuania I forgive me but I mean things like this sort of some countries seem to be coming out the blocks quicker than others in trying to torque up the defense industrial base and I wonder how much of that is actual work or um more for domestic consumption one if you had any thoughts on that I mean what what I will say is some of these some of the ramp ups that we’re seeing it actually started um earlier so for instance Poland had already started working to ramp up product or to produce UK missiles in Poland somewhat prior to the war and so some of these industrial Investments are already coming on we’re coming online anyway so some of the efforts that we’re seeing that that are manifesting actually have been in play for several years so that’s the other part here that it’s hard to Define is what we’re seeing is it just long leads that have already been in the works similar to some of the Franco Italian joint projects looked like they were had been in the works prior to this so it’s I think the other part is what is being counted as part of the initiatives Vice was already being in the works for years so a little bit tangential to bit another gauge thanks and and pet reminds me it’s France Poland Germany in the viar Triangle thank you next our colleagues over on the the telegraph has started a new daily podcast God knows where they got that idea but the daily tea started this week and we had we had well David was on yesterday talking about talking about updating where the Warriors at the moment in Ukraine but Camila Tomy our colleague here was talking about how when she chatted recently with Michael Portillo Former Defense secretary in the UK and he was very firm in his in his view that after this supplemental there will be no more big money big supplementals coming from the US of which whichever president gets in Michael patiller was of the view that that this is it 61 billion and that that’s it he was and Camila says she was quite surprised how forthright he was in saying that regardless of how it goes out on the battlefield that’s it do you agree with that I was quite I was a bit surprised at how stride and Michael pello seemed to be so I’ll say I can’t speak to us as politics both because Rand is nonpartisan um and while I’m in the Beltway a lot I’m actually at a satellite in Pittsburgh most of the time out of the Beltway and I’m not in the Halls so to speak what I will say is is when it comes to Munitions production which really is the big question here because there’s a lot of stuff in storage but new production that tends to be the least profitable part of the defense industry which most people don’t realize and so when it comes to defense contractors asking and lobbying for production Munitions always falls off the budgets it always falls off because it’s a large Capital expense and it’s highly uncertain for longterm recouping value or r R&D is very high priority and a lot of communities like r&bd they don’t like Munitions factories and so I hate to pull up the US has a very lobbying Focus but if you don’t have there’s two sides of this one side is there’s the political moral support the other is that broader defense industry support if they’re not also pushing that might also affect long term so it’s not quite your answer because I’m not going to speak to the politics of Democrats and Republicans but from a broader us political perspective there aren’t as strong of drivers as there might be for other initiatives Mike you thank you very much for your time I mean it’s very concerning what you’re saying in essence which is that whilst politicians are talking a big talk about the $60 billion Aid package the initiatives within Europe that the reality is that when you’re actually looking at the figures you’re looking at about what is being done that it is nowhere near as transformative and profound as we may have been being led to believe by the rhetoric so my final question is is that fair and if so what needs to be done realistically if we are to see the changes on the Munitions front that would see a profound shift on the battlefield in Ukraine’s favor so from what I’ve seen I think you’ve characterized it well really what it comes down to is we have to see new factories produced for I I laid out different lines of kind of effort in my piece and you those those numbers are what they are and and for most of we’re most factories are at their Max um production rate now and they’re run that way in peace time for efficiency until we see doubling of factories across the board for Munitions until we see Downstream suppliers getting involved until we see Industries beyond the defense industry so whether it’s Automotive companies Aerospace Etc until we see a broader employment similar to the 1930s ramp ups for World War II I think there’s really going to be a struggle to support Ukraine I mean I gave timelines of two years based on kind of the Estonian plan where that’s a minimum amount of time it takes if you throw everything at the problem to ramp up production so that’s really what I would expect to see whether on the European side or the US side I mean the good news is that some countries are seem to be more willing to do this ramp up than others but we we really need to see frankly new factories getting built and until we see groundbreaking it’s really hard to see how there’s any direct path to these Munitions that are needed for Ukraine well thank you very much Michael for your time always fascinating to hear your perspective and that link that that article sorry that you wrote for the telegraph will add a link in the show notes so we’ll come back to you and Michael shortly for your final thoughts and Nate too but Dom first of all what have you wanting to lead our listeners with yeah thanks Francis so I note that in the last couple of minutes V jar Luby who’s the ambassador to the UK from Estonia has just tweeted or coped a post from his Foreign Affairs Ministry saying that Estonia has just voted to approve Mo the law to seize Frozen Russian assets it needs to go through um the president I think can’t see the Tweet right now but uh they’ve taken a massive step forward and it looks like that’s going to go through now that might be the the first one of these kind it’ll be interesting to see if that’s a sort of domino effect from there but yeah the first major or the first country to vote to seize Russian assets and use the money for Ukraine separately I would say I just say I had an interview or we interviewed yesterday the Pod Francis n interviewed the British defense secretary Grant shaps here that going out later as a pre-record we’ll go on the podcast so have a listen to that later if you’re here on the live otherwise if if you’re on the podcast just hold your breath for a couple of minutes and it’ll be on we spoke about Ukraine we spoke about the new amphibious ships that Britain is getting they’re not new they’re not new they announced them two years ago and it’s not six it’s only three but apart from that it’s all good news we talked about that we talked about the effect it’s going to have on the Roy Fleet auxiliary the civilian Merchant Marine Who currently crew the the logistic vessels have how they’re going to be happy or will they be happy being put more obviously In Harm’s Way they won’t we spoke about that and I also asked him about the ongoing inquiry here in London Afghanistan inquiry into alleged extrajudicial killings by British Special Forces in Afghanistan so all that to come in a very quick he could only give us about 17 minutes of his time uh but a very quick Whistle Stop tour with the British defense secretary and that’s coming up on the Pod later that’s it for me I’m hosting tomorrow so everyone grab your your lucky rabbit’s feet and and we’ll go for it and I will speak tomorrow Johnny great to see you stay safe mate thanks very much Dom so let’s go next to Nate what do you want to leave our listeners with yeah so I think the west and and especially the US really has a an important role right now to actually make some concrete actions to show Georgian government that this is the wrong path and I’m not talking just strongly worded voices of concern but like sanctions against ivanesil sanctions against other members of parliament that voted for the bill and this is what Georgian opposition wants to see and I really hope that that’s something that happens soon well thank you very much Nate and Michael the very final words for today just something that you know as is there’s been discussion of at what point NATO troops have to be on the ground what’s what hasn’t been talked about is when Russia had Complete air control with no surfaced air missiles to stop them they carpet bomb maral we have videos of that the telegraph has videos of that a concern that I do have and we’re going to see from kke is as air defenses shrink uh what Russia is going to do to punish citizens and there might be a point where Ukraine might be holding on the ground but Russian air is attacking civilians heavily much more so and it’s not just when might NATO troops have to be on the ground but when NATO might have to protect in the air in a no-fly zone for humanitarian reasons and the these are the discussions that we have to have now especially if the industrial base is not going to ramp up fast enough to protect individual or to enable Ukraine to protect its citizens and its troops over well thank you very much Michael and I think you speak for many of our listeners when you say that proactiveness so thank you all very much for your time today a really interesting conversation on lots of different fronts thank you Nate thank you Michael and thank you Dom as Dom says he’ll be back in the podcast tomorrow but we’ll be chairing it and I’ll be in Dom’s shoes we will also be hearing from David nolles who is currently on the road on the way to Ukraine today and will be in Ukraine tomorrow so some on the ground reporting from him judging the mood in Lviv and other places coming up Dom and I sit down with British defense secretary Grant shaps but before that as Dom mentioned the telegraph has a new daily podcast called the daily tea which David was interviewed for yesterday the link will be in the description for a Frank and fearless take on the day’s headlines plus agenda setting interviews with influential figures do check it out Grant shaps was appointed Britain’s defense secretary in August 2023 succeeding Ben Wallace previously serving in various cabinet posts including conservative party co-chairman Home Secretary business secretary and energy secretary under Prime Ministers David Cameron Boris Johnson Liz truss and Rishi sunak he is a familiar face in British politics to discuss the situation in Ukraine and Western support Dom and I interviewed him at Telegraph Towers we get to Ukraine shortly into our interview but Dom starts by asking him about Sha’s new announcement that the Royal Marines are to get up to six new ships en able to launch drones and laser weapons as part of Britain’s response to increase tension provoked by the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East this is our conversation Secretary State Grant chaps Minister for defense in the UK thank you so much for joining us today welcome to Ukraine the latest thank you so you made an announcement today new ships for the Royal Navy the Royal Marines multi-roll support ships so the the announcement was a couple years AG go but you’ve gone firm today on the first three going into build they are going to replace I understand the assault ships HMS Al and bulwar and the bay glass logistic vessels can you tell us what the rationale is behind increasing the the number of amphibious assault ships and just how wise is it to blur the roles of a regular Royal Navy crewed assault ship and a a Roy Fleet auxiliary civilian crewed logistic vessel so oh look first of all great to be on your cast secondly yeah I made that announcement today about these six or up to six multi-roll Ships Come Back To those in a second it should say that was within the context of saying that we now have in design build or construction or you know actually many cases already coming off the line 28 ships and submarines in total so of all different sizes and shapes and frigs and the rest of it submarines so a big recapitalization a big increase for the first time in some time of the number of Royal Navy ships that’s the context secondly with regard to these particular ships look the world’s changing and we’re seeing that actually both in the Black Sea where we’ve seen the the Black Sea Fleet the Russian Fleet being sunk by essentially a ghost Navy of the ukrainians and you’re seeing a very different type of Warfare at Sea also in the Red Sea where you’ve got the hoties firing very inexpensive by and large drones and then shooting them down with ballistic missiles this is a very asymmetric in two different ways there what we’re attempting to do with these multi roll ships is learn the lessons of all of that and say actually in the future we can’t be absolutely sure today exactly what kind of ship you’ll require and exactly what kind of Kit you’ll require on it this is more of a a modular approach where you for example can take some service bays and use them for a lot of different functions I just saw this on the type 26 last week HMS Cardiff one of the 28 in build in Scotland where the new way that the service Bay operates there means they’ll be able to take lots of different types of equipment in possibly things which we haven’t even invented yet and use it in the future same with these multi-roll ships we think that far from blurring the line it actually increases flexibility makes them more agile for any kind of warfare that comes in the future and you’re not concerned that the RFA that the RO Fleet Oiler civilian group attached to the mod essentially they are able to they have recently voted for strike action you don’t think that’s a risk having people on look actually I mean if I I don’t actually think that that they are very much part of our war fighting support I don’t actually think it’s a good idea to have contracts which is what has happened here in the past they’ve been putting on to contracts which doesn’t provide the same essentially rights and responsibilities as those in our Armed Forces get so I do think that’s a matter that requires looking at we can’t have a military fighting machine subject to the ordinary rules of of industrial relations it just doesn’t work that’s why the Armed Forces are not able to strike but in return they for example last year there was a 10% increase for the L paid in in the uh in the armed forces so you know they get a a better deal in some ways but you do get that right restricted and I think we probably do need to look at that so an adjustment to their terms of service or a reduction num this isn’t going to in terms of terms of service it’s not something an overnight thing there’s a separate I’m not you know the the industrial action is being discussed and sort through sorted through with the relevant parties but if you’re asking what I think it’s not satisfactory to have armed forces or even Armed Forces Royal auxiliary support who are subject to ordinary laws of employment laws for quite obvious reasons I would have thought are these ships already in the 10-year rolling ep the equipment plan or they going to come in after do my math 2034 yeah so so actually interesting question because you you mentioned at the top that we’ve talked about these multi-roll ships in the past um but we’ve never been able to confirm them and the reason we haven’t been able to is we didn’t have the uplift required and as you’ll recall last January I made a speech in uh Lancaster house in London about is this a more dangerous world I use the phrase perhaps moving from a postwar to a pre-war era not because I think we’re about to go to war but because I think we need to be better prepared to put off those who seek to harm us and that has all led to a sort of national debate and ultimately this conservative government putting in 2 and a half% another 75 billion in cash terms to our armed forces and they abling me to push ahead with something that had been talked about but had never been confirmed which are up to six of these new mul rooll ships now you mentioned the uplift there the announcement recently from the Prime Minister was that in six years time that the defense budget will go up by 0.18% to 2.5% the Public Accounts committee say that the black hole the unfunded things already in the equipment program comes to they put a figure of 16.9 billion you can debate that but with all this new money you’re going to get when will the equipment plan black hole be filled so there won’t be a black hole in fact there wouldn’t have been in any case and just to explain why what the Nao does is says look at all these things that have been announced we’re going to assume they’re all going to happen and we’re going to assume there’ll be zero increase in budgets to pay for it and of course in reality we’d only commissioned about a quarter of the things which have been talked about up until this point so I would argue that that 167 billion Gap wasn’t going to occur anyway but anyway either way whether you believe that or not it is now of course true to say that in cash terms we’ve just said that we’re injecting 75 billion pounds more over six years meaning that well that would easily be uh removed entirely that Gap and in fact we we would on that basis have a surplus if you work on that accounting basis so really this is a question of when things are approved and uh the timing of those things what we now know for sure is that we’ve provided a path to 2 and a half% I should say we have done that this conservative government has done that labor are using weasel words to try to suggest that they too would raise defense spending to 2 and a half% however they are refusing to put a timetable on it or take the difficult decisions required to fund it wishing to increase defense budget to 2 and a half% is not the same as pledging actually doing it and the way that we’ve said we’ll do it is to slash uh by 72,000 the number of people working in our civil service uh to get the Civil Service back down to the same level as it was actually before Co so this is not some slash and burn this is simply trying to make the Civil Service as productive as it should be and we use that income year after year to help pay for much of this increase labor aren’t prepared to do that reduction in the Civil Service they’re paying lip service to increasing to 2 and a half% you can’t trust defense in the hands of people who won’t outline the way that they’re going to pay for it well hopefully we’ll get a chance to speak to Mr Healey again in the run up to the election so should should I be block booking some time in sort of August September well look I I could not possibly predict for you I’m I’m I’m rather hoping we’ll give the country a break over its uh over at summer months a couple more time I’m conscious that you need to get back to the house shortly but a couple more if I may on Ukraine there’s an urgent need for better trained Personnel how supportive would you be of a model that was put to me by a very senior Ukrainian military figure and political figures of using Western NATO veterans and in a civilian contractor model inside Ukraine to tr train people so not handson mod foreign office but people who who know one other well look I’m I’m always talking to our Ukrainian friends and colleagues about this fact yesterday afternoon I was talking to minister umov who’s my opposite number the Ukrainian defense minister about amongst many other things how we can do even more to support the training of Ukrainian troops remembering that the United Kingdom’s trained 65,000 Ukrainian troops since 2014 the vast majority since the main invasion in 202 too by bringing a coalition of a dozen countries together to train in the UK and make sure that they’re prepared now I’m always looking at how can we do more how can we speed that up how can we potentially bring training uh closer I don’t want to step over that line that puts British sort of troops on the ground in Ukraine I don’t think that makes sense to do but what I do think is sensible is potentially moving training training closer and of course there may be other models that we could uh look at not something I’d want to go into in detail currently but I think what really lies behind all of this is our commitment to Ukraine is absolutely Rock Solid I think the world took its eye off the ball and we’re seeing in khar and along the Eastern Front some of the implications of that I think it’s rescuable at this stage thank goodness we didn’t take our Eye Off the Ball we kept increasing the amount of money going to Ukraine not just because it’s in Ukraine’s interest but it’s in our own interest and it’s in the world’s interest and we mustn’t allow the west or the civiliz world to take their eye off the ball whether it’s training or providing Munitions or overall signaling to Putin that must never happen again now Putin yesterday or day before just replaced his defense minister with an economist it seems to be that the fact that he sees Victory being delivered through outproducing Ukraine and its supporters if this war draws out into an economic slugfest will Russia win this forever war no they won’t and that’s what the rest of the world the Civilized world needs to know this is absolutely bleeding ukra uh Russia dry if you think about Britain fighting the first world war and the second world war and the impact that had on our society our economy went into the first world war as an Empire we we the situation adjusted Afters it exhausts countries when they have to convert to a full War economy and that is what Putin is doing to his country and his people he is essentially being forced by his own actions to choose between people’s standard of living the hospital Health Care their education their homes the housing and much else in order to convert the Dort the economy to this war economy so no he won’t be able to do it forever what the rest of us need to understand is that we need to make sure he has to do it for long enough until he says all right it’s game over I’m going to stop this because I can’t win it and that is where with very very clear moral clarification that is very clearly where the rest of the world needs to be and we need to understand that because it’s not open-ended they don’t have endless resources in Russia and frankly it doesn’t matter which Putin puppet is put in as their defense minister in Russia it makes no difference the way that Putin’s behaving is barbaric he’s LED probably by next month a half a million of his countrymen to the slaughter or Serious injury and for what for one man’s ambition to re try and rebuild a greater Russia and just finally for me I won’t ask you to speak about any specifics of the ongoing Afghanistan inquiry into alleged extrajudicial killings by British Special Forces but how confident are you that the moral compass of the UK Special Forces Group is Rock Solid and pointing in the right direction well look as you say I I can’t comment on on specifics other than to say of course it’s now a long time ago and rightly needs to be fully investigating the the best way to handle these things is to get the truth out there but do I think it’s no do I think that it’s reflective of today no in fact my experience my role as defense secretary since last year has been utter professionalism of our special forces in a way that I just wish more people would could actually see but obviously the work that they do means that’s impossible none of which negates the fact that if wrongdoings took place they should be properly exposed because it’s only by doing that and getting Justice that you as a society but also as a as a force are able to correct for the future Secretary of State thank you very much for your time just two questions from me both on Ukraine you say that our support for Ukraine is absolutely rock solid as a country but at the same time you say that we want to avoid a situation where there’s boots on the ground obviously president macron has been talking about worst case scenarios in extremists and then there might be a need for NATO French or other Coalition forces to go onto the ground in Ukraine so what are our red lines in Ukraine I mean it’s not surely conceivable now that if the worst were to happen and Putin were to make huge advances that we could allow say the city of keev to fall or other major cities so where do we draw the line well I’m look I’m not proposing and I don’t think it’s likely that I will boots on the ground in Ukraine I don’t think it’s necessary either what we need to do is make sure our Ukrainian allies are properly funded properly trained as we’ve been discussing and have access access to all the equipment that they need and once you do that you discover that actually we way overrun overmatch the Russians as soon as you spend even a percentage of what NATO spends on defense and of course the United Kingdom is leading the way to increase that NATO spending as the second biggest spender other than the US and by a country mile as the NATO Secretary General said to me last month Britain is the biggest military spender in Europe by country mile so what we need to do is actually spend our we put our money where are Ms are I think if all countries and France included were to step up to where the United Kingdom has been in terms of its support Germany very much has done that although they’re helping more financially we tend to be more forward leaning but if every country were to do that then Putin would get the message pretty quickly he cannot win this war so I don’t think we need to reinvent new things to do we all need to step up with at least the level of Aid that Britain has given remember I’ve just given the biggest ever single package of gifted equipment to Ukraine in the last uh three weeks and we’ve just already had the biggest budget that we were providing for Ukraine a 2 and a half billion and I’ve added another half a billion so now three billion to it as well every country just needs to do its bit its part and that’s how we win or help our Ukrainian friends win you just mentioned Germany there we’ve just had the German ambassador in and I put to him that even if America were to continue providing the current level of support after November which of course is not guaranteed that would still probably not be enough for a Ukrainian Victory as keeve perceives it and indeed as we’ve promised to support it in does Europe get that do you think that even with America Europe will need to step up and if if so what more should we be doing collectively to arm Ukraine for what it needs well last time I was in ke I I literally stood in some Michael square and said look this is Raising this is raising the alarm Bell this is putting the world on notice that we need to be prepared to step up because particularly for those of us who live on this continent of Europe the idea that we’re going to allow Moscow to decide European borders through force or Washington DC to decide through support or lack thereof and do it to our continent to me is completely unacceptable and I I remember some some Michael Square said making the the point there that if we all say that we are willing this end of a Ukrainian Victory I think it’s incredibly important because Putin won’t stop in Ukraine he would carry on moving into a number of other countries would be immediately vulnerable worse still potentially dictators elsewhere in the world would say Well the West said it couldn’t happen it actually turns out if you wait a couple of years and you keep pushing it can that is a terrible existentially bad message to send to dictators every so that must not happen and I think the primary responsibility does fall on the shoulders of those of us who are closest to the action once again it’s extraordinary the European crisis which country steps up actually the one in Europe which is furthest from the action in many ways furthest west and um you know I think people can be very proud of what Britain’s done and what president zsky has said to me more than once which is without Britain we may not still been in this war today Secretary of State Grant chaps thank you very much indeed for talking to Ukraine the latest thank you thank you Ukraine the latest is an original podcast from the telegraph to support our work and to stay on top of all of our Ukraine news analysis and dispatches from the ground please subscribe to the telegraph you can get your first three months for just £1 at www.telegraph.co.uk Ukraine thelatest or sign up to dispatches our Foreign Affairs newsletter bringing stories from our award-winning foreign correspondents straight to your inbox we also have a Ukraine live blog on our website where you can follow updates as they come in throughout the day including insights from regular contributors to this podcast we also do the same for other breaking International stories you can listen to this conversation live at 1: p.m. London time each weekday on Twitter spaces follow the telegraph on Twitter so you don’t miss it to our listeners on YouTube please note that due to issues beond our control there is sometimes a delay between broadcast and upload so if you want to hear Ukraine the latest as soon as it’s released do please refer to podcast apps if you appreciated this podcast please do consider following Ukraine the latest on your preferred podcast app and leave us a review as it genuinely helps others find the show please also share it to those who may not know we exist as a disinformation war ramps up we are relying on your support more than ever you can also get in touch Direct directly to ask questions or give comments by emailing Ukraine pod telegraph.co.uk we do continue to read every message you can also contact us directly on X formerly known as Twitter you’ll find our Handles in the description for this episode as ever we’re especially interested to hear where you’re listening from around the world Ukraine the latest was today produced by Charles gear executive producers are David nolles and Louisa Wells

Day 805. Today, we discuss the fast-moving situation on the front line as Russia continues its assault near Kharkiv. Plus, we analyse the controversies stoked by the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Kyiv, and sit down for an exclusive interview with the British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps.

Contributors:
Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor) @FrancisDearnley on X.
Dom Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Nate Ostiller (News Editor at the Kyiv Independent). @NateOstiller on X.
Michael Bohnert (RAND Corporation). @mbohnert on X.

Articles / New Podcast Referenced:

David Knowles Interviewed on The Telegraph’s New Podcast, ‘The Daily T’:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/14/daily-t-podcast-fat-skinny-jabs-ukraine-trigger-warning/

‘Here’s what Ukraine needs in missiles, shells and troops to win’ (Michael Bohnert for The Telegraph):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2024/05/02/ukraine-war-russian-invasion-missile-army-navy-us-aid/

Subscribe to The Telegraph: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest
Email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk