Ukraine’s troops hunt Russian soldiers pushing for Kharkiv as Putin could sue for peace | Frontline

Ukraine’s troops hunt Russian soldiers pushing for Kharkiv as Putin could sue for peace | Frontline

Putin having been reelected you know trying to put yourself into the mind of of these sort of guys is not easy clearly but you you can imagine that he will now having been reelected make these changes he wants to see significant success this year and and we know that he can only only be able to bring that about by ramping up production getting all the war production levels and so forth but also he has got to mobilize some more people particularly if he still has the intent of trying to secure the whole of UK if his if if his in his own mind what he’s thinking is let’s grab a little bit more territory you know do this buffer zone that we were talking about before or not um and push and not push on it you know beyond that and then just sit there and say to zilinski you need to negotiate and and come from a position that I’m not going to give up the Eastern provinces I’m not going to give up Crimea you’re not in a position of retaking that territory and therefore let’s negotiate there are rumors that zinsky and Putin might even meet one another fairly soon I mean I picked that up last week and had a conversation actually only yesterday now I I don’t know whether that’s true or not but there are some rumors um so you know one has to try and imagine in Putin’s mind what is he trying to achieve here I’m not convinced that he really believes anymore that he can secure the hold of Ukraine but I’m pretty sure that he will not give up on what he’s got and he may well try and achieve a bit more through some sort of you know opening up this counter offensive ored indeed putting more pressure on in the south and east where the pressure hasn’t gone away um and Ukraine is struggling going back to mobilization Ukraine is struggling to mobilize people I mean a lot of young people are not signing up and quite a lot of left um and there are you know there there’s a lot of conversation going on in Ukraine about what to do about this so I don’t think there’s any doubt in my mind that that Putin wants to put increase the pressure ramp up production put these new people in place and then as you say mo more people in order to be able to maintain the pressure if not increas it it’s fascinating what you said there about the potential and I appreciate it is only speculation but the potential for Putin and zinsky to meet how would that even work in practice I mean where would they meet for instance somewhere with hopefully you and I would not know nor anybody else in the media it has to be done you know quietly behind the scenes um and and it has to be done out of the spotlight of the media and and the world’s eyes so you know I don’t where would it be well there there are options I mean clearly some of the Nordic countries have traditionally hosted peace talks um I don’t I don’t know is the honest answer but uh it would have to be there would obviously be preliminary meetings having to go on and and you know conversations being had but that happens in all of these conflicts I mean it’s like Israel Gaza there’s lots of conversations going on and you have you have officials at certain levels that get involved at certain stages before you ramp it up to your foreign ministers and and so on until you then have the heads of state meeting so there’s there’s work to be done I don’t think it be I I don’t think I can’t see it being done in Russia or Ukraine so you know bellarus potentially I suppose uh but maybe somewhere else you know in the region um I can’t see them both of them flying off to be honest you know long distances uh I suspect it will have to be on the ground in the you know in the neighborhood in inverted Commerce but it I I stress it’s only speculation I I have picked it up I picked it up from a couple of sources so I’m not saying it’s it’s not happening it’s certainly possible it may not be probable at this stage but you know it is potentially the case and if we look at what Ukraine can hope to achieve realistically in the next few months I mean it’s interesting despite the Russian advances in the Northeast Ukraine continue to have some success striking targets within Russian territory and inde needed striking bases in Crimea for for instance what do you think realistically is a good next few months for Ukraine I think that actually is you know the key I don’t I don’t I don’t want to be dismissed or or you know be less than positive about Ukraine we all want Ukraine to do well U and you know we can talk about what does Victory look like in inverted Commerce but if they can regain territory on the ground then you know fantastic but they have got to have that ability as we were discussing earlier but I think what will put pressure on Putin is the fact that people as I say people people like our own foreign secretary David Cameron others uh in NATO and and indeed the Americans are now beginning to say to Ukraine you can use these weapon systems to strike deep into Russia and therefore weapon systems like the attachs like you know air power drones and so on and so forth giving them the ability to strike deep inside Russia not just into Crimea but deep into Russia and why wouldn’t we have allowed them to do that at the end of the day you know Ukraine has been hit hard their infrastructure in particular their energy infrastructure uh you know and and so on so I think if giving them the ability to do that and allowing them to do that is a very important message and if they can begin to cause serious trouble deep inside Russia then I think Putin maybe you know put in a position where he’s having to scratch his head and think you know we’re not making progress on the ground they have they have the ability to hit hit deeply and um you know we’ve got to somehow bring this thing to an end do you think Russia’s operational objective is in the Northeast I was reading some analysis by The Institute for the study of war and they were saying they believe Russia are trying to create a buffer zone in the Northeast to try and limit Ukraine’s ability to strike targets inside Russian territory for example belgrad and as a result they think it’s unlikely although you obviously can’t rule it out and you don’t want to be complacent that Russia will make a a direct push for for example harv City what’s your reading of it yeah I understand that and I don’t you know I don’t think any of us you know really knows what the outcome of this will be but I I I’ve read too about this idea of a buffer zone but actually it’s not that it’s not that big in terms of the ability for the Ukraine to strike deep into Russia um with the new weapons that are coming Etc I can’t honestly believe it’s going to make that much difference I think securing territory undoubtedly is is an you know is an aim of Russia and they still haven’t given up on the whole idea of taking over the whole of Ukraine and not just you know chunks of it on on the east or in the north so I suspect this is I would say from a military point of view this is a not unexpected offensive trying to achieve maybe potentially a breakthrough uh to push through the Ukrainian defensive and as things develop you then seize your opportunity um and if the if the if the front line does give them the opportunity to press on and and Surround or secure you know the city then that’s probably what they will do I mean what if if you are a Russian why wouldn’t why would you not want to do that um you what they want to see is is Ukraine basically capitulate and if this puts further pressure on zalinski and and the and the uh you know the leadership in Ukraine then I think that’s what the Russians will continue to try to do do you think the gains we’re seeing Russia making in the northeast of Ukraine at the moment are a direct result of the delayed American military aid well I wouldn’t just put the blame on the Americans I think collectively we the West have been you know we’ve been providing a lot of a lot of equipment clearly and a lot of support and I don’t want to I don’t want to diminish that but nonetheless all that we’ve given them as the months have gone by since the invasion is the ability to basically try to hold the line to defend themselves that has been a gap in the last few months it has had an impact there’s no doubt about it the American um delay on providing the uh the ammunition and equipment that they’re now now beginning to provide and indeed other nations too have been slow in delivering Aid and material that they’ve promised undoubtedly has given a window as I said earlier a window of opportunity to to Russia so I don’t think there’s any doubt that it is linked to that now it it also has to be said that Russia itself when you’re fighting these campaigns you reach in military parli what they call a culminating point where you’ve pressed on you’ve done all you can do and you’re taking casualties uh and your Logistics are stretch and all sorts of other things and you just have to pause you have to sort of pull in your skirts get things sorted re re um you know redesignate and and and reframe everything that’s going on and then press on again and I think Russia has been at a culminating point for a while uh they’ve now put in all sorts of measures to enable them to conduct this offensive so it’s linked to the American issue and and the rest of the West issue but I don’t think it’s entirely as a result of that but it’s not a surprise and it’s interesting that we’re speaking today when Secretary of State Anthony blinkin is making a surprise visit to keeve we understand according to us officials that artillery attack and missiles and air defense interceptors that were included in that recent Aid package are already reaching Ukrainian forces but do you think it is feasible that the tempo of deliveries can be increased well I I was listening too earlier on to some of this you know this conversation and indeed with again with our defense secretary and I I don’t want be unfair but you’ve got to separate out the political um you know comments so so yes I’m sure I’m sure nobody’s lying at the end of the day some equipment will be arriving but the issue is how much and how quickly and how how can they push on with the momentum to make sure they deliver what is necessary um to a first of all of course defend the turf that they’re now defending but then also to prepare them for their own offensive you know this is this is a lot of equipment um uh but it’s you know the Americans are a big organization they’ve got the lift the sea lift and the airlift uh to to deliver this stuff but it will take a while I I don’t think the scale of what we’re talking about here I don’t think to me to my mind we’re talking weeks if not a couple of months before the you know the sufficient combat power has been delivered to enable Ukraine to really be able to conduct offensive operations for themselves so they’ve got a they’ve got a hold out so what we’re seeing arrive will be no doubt will be rushed to the front and in particularly the artillery ammunition and the uh air defenses and the attacks and so forth will be very important I don’t want to diminish that but the size and scale and and uh you know timelines Associated that I think we we shouldn’t get we shouldn’t be too optimistic I think it will take a while before it really begins to make a difference I suppose one of the other questions is what more can the Americans do it’s interesting that the Biden Administration says it’s working on a new $ 33 billion package in which Yachts mansions and artworks belonging to Russian oligarchs would be seized and sold to fund military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine I suppose it does beg the question though why has this not happened before now yeah well I mean it relates to the whole of the sanctions business doesn’t it and I don’t think I I don’t think sanctions have worked really I don’t have a problem with it I don’t have a problem with targeting individuals but the the scale and the ability to do that and really you know generates efficient resources to make a big difference I’m not convinced is you know is a big issue um I I think the um you know the real issue for me is is not also not just about equipment and and material Logistics I mean clearly I come from a background of logistics and Logistics is undoubtedly the key to this it’s the ability to of your uh weapon production and Russia has ramped up their weapon production you know significantly um and you know now spending probably 6% something like that of their GDP and so on they have moved to a war footing the West has been very slow in doing that but it’s not just that if you want to conduct serious counter offensives you need to have the commanders and the in place ability to bring together an all arms battle you need to bring together your infantry and armor and artillery and your engineering support and your Communications and um you know the other aspects of logistics and so forth to enable you to to conduct operational levels campaigns uh we were with a a Border guard unit so not regular army but a Special Forces Unit of the Border guard um and the commander of that Border guard unit they’re actually called the pey blinders um he is a lipy native so he knows every inch of this terrain um he cycled all these roads all the dirt tracks as as a child so he knows exactly where to find the Russians where they’ll be um where to look for them um and so he was a pretty good guide I thought to to take us there and how close did you get to the Russian forces so while we were in the Foxhole um we heard automatic weapons fire open up about a mile and a half to our right um which then set this team looking for the Russians they got a drone up in the air and they were hunting to try and find where the fire was coming from on the Drone we were able to watch three Ukrainian soldiers and engaging uh a platoon of of Russian infantry um and these the the Drone team were then able to send their first person view drones out to attack the Russians break up the attack um and then pursue them through the woods as they tried to run away hello and welcome to front line for times radio with Me Kate jaabo and we are joined this time from Ukraine by Maxim Tucker an editor on the times as foreign desk who was in keev and ke correspondent between 2014 and 2016 Maxim has returned to report from the front Lin since 2022 and he’s speaking to us now from H Maxim thank you very much for your time and we are talking days into a Russian probing incursion into the harke O Blast From Russia how are things where you are in har City so har city is under very heavy B bombardment it’s been intensified since the offensive started on Friday um there are Glide bombs coming in from Russian Jets and there are cruise missiles um hitting the city every single night um even into the afternoon sometimes um so there’s a very heavy bombardment of aarv City itself um but the Russians are still not within artillery range and that’s one of the concerns that is here in Haru city is that if the Russians can win the battle for lip SE which is a very ferocious battle being fought in a village outside hardk now they will bring be able to bring their Barrel artillery into range of the city center you’ve been outside the city can you tell me lipy is one of the places you have been to isn’t it can you tell us where else you’ve been where you’ve been exactly what you’ve been seeing so we were in lipy yesterday in in a foxhole with the Ukrainian Special Forces team um it’s incredibly loud there there is incoming and outgoing fire all day mortars large caliber artillery um Russian Jets coming dropping Glide bombs on Ukrainian positions um Ukrainian helicopters responding by firing rockets at at Russian positions it’s a a really really intense 21st century battle and then you also have these drone operators who were looking hunting for each other’s positions in the foliage and dropping grenades or um launching firstperson view drones to try and attack infantry on the Move than that are exposed how did you get to lipine and can you tell me a bit about your journey to get to Haro blast uh so the the journey from from Kiev is is quite straightforward to cardv it’s a six-hour drive um and then it’s really a case of persuading a unit to to take you with them into the regional areas where the fighting is and there has been a a moratorium placed on on journalists um by the the the regular army so you have to kind of look for different units that might accept you and we were in touch um with a uh Special Forces team that I I know through another contact and because there’s a personal relationship there they said okay we’ll we’ll take you and show you how we work um they took us a little bit further than I thought we were going to go into into lipy um but it was a very interesting experience and we saw firsthand how heavy the fighting is and the kind of work that they are doing um the way that they fight with drones to track Russians and to see the Russian infantries encroaching across the fields and then how the Russians are trying to use small groups to kind of get behind Ukrainian forces this is a new tactic for the Russians they usually advance in big armored columns but they have decided to use small groups to try and infiltrate Ukrainian positions using foliage and and the advantage of in harv region that there’s a lot of trees a lot of fields with undergrowth and and um a lot of rivers with valleys that they can hide in uh you told me you were in a foxhole in lip seek can you just tell me a bit more about it what was it like how many people were with you and and what were the conditions like so the team is about eight people um but they go traveling to those positions uh during the day um flying drone missions dropping dropping U Munitions on the Russians calling in um artillery strikes and looking hunting for Russians in the area uh we were with a a a Border guard unit so not regular army with a Special Forces Unit of the Border guard um and the commander of that Border guard unit they’re actually called the pey blinders um he is a Lipsy native so he knows every inch of this terrain um he cycled all these roads all the dirt tracks as as a child so he knows exactly where to find the Russians where they’ll be um where to look for them um and so he was a pretty good guide I thought to to take us there and how close did you get to the Russian forces so while we’re in the Foxhole um we heard automatic weapons fire open up about a mile and a half to our right um which then s this team looking for the Russians they got a drone up in the air and they were hunting to try and find where the fire was coming from on the Drone we were able to watch three Ukrainian soldiers engaging uh a platoon of of Russian infantry um and these the the Drone team were then able to send their firstperson view drones out to attack the Russians break up the attack um and then pursue them through the woods as they try to run away and do you know whether the Ukrainian forces have actually managed to take any prisoners of War well the forces we were with haven’t said anything about that they haven’t discussed that we know that the Russians have taken some prisoners from the the Kraken unit a Special Forces Unit that had been sent in to help bolster the line um I think the Ukraine is is mostly fighting a rear guard action and trying to stabilize its front line there are counterattacks but either think that they’re focused on on taking prisoners War as far as I can see so the situation lipy at the moment is the fact that it’s not been taken by the Russians yet but that that the Ukraine are heavily defending is that correct that’s correct and it’s it’s a really key place because if the Russians can get to the Heights and lipc then they can bring their artillery into range of of hardk and that will make the situation very difficult for the command structure and for the the 1.5 million people that used to call hardk home many of them have already left but people will be looking to go back so U that was yesterday um where else have you been and how did it compare uh so previously we were inv V Chans we joined a police um mission to evacuate civilians it’s it’s a different kind of battle because you’re you know they’re attacking the city just indiscriminately the Russians are shelling all the houses in in the in the town it’s a town of 18,000 people whereas yesterday we were in a foxhole in in a tree line basically in a set of field so it’s it’s a a different kind of warfare um I think the ukrainians are having a very hard time there because the Russians are already into the outskirts of the Town they’ve already taken some houses and they fighting through um and the ukrainians are seeking to drive them back but the thing is V Chans is only three miles from the Russian border so it’s very easy for the Russians to attack the ukrainians there across the border um Fly their Jets and um nearby dropping Glide bombs and the ukrainians are struggling because there is this prohibition from the West on using weapons like attacks which could be used to hit um Russian points where they command and control points or ammunition dumps and supplies um logistical lines into hardk but they can’t do that because the US has said they wouldn’t be they’re not allowed to you uh have written about um people being evacuated from V chant can you tell us a bit more about how many people have gone and how that how difficult that has been well I think there there was the town was of 18,000 people a lot of them left during the first occup in 2022 uh and I think a lot of people have left of their own accord again for a second time since then uh the police told us that they’ evacuated about 1500 people I think several hundred people maybe thousands of people have been evacuated by volunteers that have also come in to help the police um and we the police told us there were only about 300 people left to evacuate um and when we were with them it was perhaps the last day that they would be doing it and be able to do it because the police are EV evacuating these civilians without largely without armored patrol cars um so they’re just driving very very fast into addresses where they’ve received distress calls from packing in these old ladies predominantly old ladies who who can’t get out of the Town um into their cars and then driving them out as fast as they can I mean you said predominantly old ladies the populations of these villages in these areas is is it coming down to the older generations of people what what is the what is the demographic at the moment from what you’ve seen so a lot of people have already left the The Villages of their own accord and it’s the people that struggle to both envisage a future somewhere else but also struggle to physically leave and to carry their belongings that normally remain behind and those are the police that those are the people that the police have tried to get out um you know we interviewed one lady Valentina 79 who said her granddaughter was begging her to pack her bags and she hadn’t listened because she just wanted to stay there was her home and when we went to to pick her up and we actually ended up taking her in in our car because the police car was full she told us I know it’s too late I should have packed my bags and now I only have this handbag I can this all I can take with me in this moment um but I just didn’t want to leave it’s my home and she doesn’t know where she’ll go and she doesn’t know what kind of future she’ll have so you know these people always weighing up what it looks like to leave versus what it looks like to stay but when we got to a house it was clear that there was incoming Mor fire in the area around her the neighboring house was burning so she admitted it was well past time to leave and do you get the the impression that there are many people uh ukrainians who who are now trapped in that Village well I think the police have done a really good job and volunteers have done a really good job of of going into the get those people so when they get a message um of distress from someone who’s stuck and wants to go out they do go in and they risk their lives to go and get those people under very very heavy shell fire so people that want to get out have been told this is your opportunity This Is How We Do It um this is how you contact us and they have tried to get get them out so I think it’s only people who may not even have the ability to reach the police or or tell them that they’re stuck there who will be remaining there so the the most vulnerable probably you’re telling me um just before about um the the frustration that people must feel that um they’re being attacked from Russia um and attacks they’re not allow are not allowed to use in the other direction and I’m just wondering having been um uh there and also in the Foxhole what is the ual morale like of the soldiers that you’ve encountered so it’s always a difficult one because the special forces units tend to have a much higher morale they’re very motivated they understand why they’re fighting they take generally fewer casualties because there’re tasked with Special Operations um and they’re not just holding the line sitting in the trench all the time um an infantry generally when we spoke into infantry they have they’re more tired they’re more exhausted their shell shocks um and they find it difficult because they need people to hold the line and they don’t have enough people so there’s always a different motivating factor now what’s happened in harv is that the initial territorial defense and some of the Infantry brigades who were tasked with with holding these line and creating fortifications didn’t do that particularly well and Ukraine has had to rush in lots of different special forces units in order to bolster the line and different assault brigades who are volunteers and very highly motivated so when you go and speak to those people they are very they’re very motivated and the morale is good and they’re determined to push the Russians back and they they’re happy actually that there are lots of Special Forces operators in the area because that makes it feel like an important thing for them but clearly the fighting is difficult and they are losing their comrades so that will’ll take a toll because one of the theories is is that this um this probing action was to divert and have uh Ukrainian forces redeployed to this area do you get a sense of of which forces have been deployed and how many well I think that’s not something they’d be willing to talk about because obviously they want to very secret um but there is definitely a sense that special forces operators who might normally be tasked with support operations in places like chivar in donbass or in the South are now being rushed into hardk and not available for missions in other areas I think you know most of the Infantry brigades the mechanized brigades are not being suddenly withdrawn but assault brigades who would be tasked with counter offensive operations and special forces are moving to hardk that’s for sure the Russian incursion first of all into the H region of Ukraine They seized a number of villages near the border with Russia and Ukraine’s Military Intelligence is saying this week or has said the situation is largely stabilized how do you see it are these breaches that sto short of a breakthrough they’re very interesting they are a probe that should have been expected but they came in an unexpected place and in an unexpected way in that they came straight for kiv where the Russians were thrown out uh in the towards the end of 2022 as you may remember and the ukrainians congratulated themselves a lot about that quite justifiably in some ways what seems to been so strange is how relatively unprotected this major city it’s the at least the third largest strategically it’s in the top five uh it’s quite close to the Russian border and the Russians appear to have walked in Surprise just to mention it the one thing that the Russians learned how to do was to build um the defensive lines Dragon’s Teeth really big anti-tank defenses right across the front which they did for over a year um u under General sovi who the the the who previously defended Aleppo he fell from Grace because he was PR goin’s buddy but he’s back again now you would have thought the ukrainians would have leared how to build defensive lines they should have done they have done in certain parts but we rather shockingly know that the Russian forces uh moved across the border with relative ease and they’ve invested or taken eight or nine Villages left and right of in the car pocket so they can get within range I think quite easily of kiv not entirely sure they want to take and hold it just yet I don’t think that this is the main effort and we can wait for quite soon for another really Main effort it may not come here at all Robert you said that this was expected but not perhaps exactly where it happened um the head of V Chan’s military Administration one of the contesters settlements refutes the claims that on Sunday Russian troops simply walked over the Border what kind of defenses does Ukraine have in that area they’re there but they’re pretty thin and I think that this is the whole story we know that they have moved up um about four battle uh Battalion size uh battle group tactical groups into the area to oppose the Russian advance but the balance of numbers as assessed last night is about 12 a half thousand ukrainians against at least 30 30,000 plus of a Russian attacking Force so the Russians have got their raos uh right um and they are employing the obvious tax IC of trying to drag Ukrainian forces away from other sectors where they might attack that’s why I think we have to keep be very open-minded as to whether this is the main effort uh but because they pulled him away from other defenses this is part of the story is that Russia’s now really building up what the military love to talk about Mass they’ve got they’ve got 300,000 plus inside Ukraine the ukrainians are very thin and very exhausted and interestingly they’re putting young people into the front line now and it was part of the um zalinski uh approach his strategy his human strategy was to use veterans to call up uh Young Middle AG because he wanted a lot of the youth the young graduates to actually be there to keep the economy to keep the society going to keep the infrastructure uh uh uh um going I think this is a very decisive year and I think we will have to come to really rough politics by certainly by Midsummer I don’t even think it’s going to be the end of the summer by that I mean July August there will they will have to find a way of engaging with the Russians on this and it would be very interesting to see what the minimal demands of Putin are going to be right now Ukraine as you say outmanned outgunned but the quality of Russian forces isn’t there to make huge advances how long can Ukraine continue do you think to limit Russia to incremental advances by retreating just enough to spare its own forces well I think that they’ve got to have a plan I mean sounds absolutely um almost crass of me to say that but one of the things that I think is striking now reading the the in-depth analysis of the institute for the study of War which you which we all look at the economist and then going even further uh foreign policy foreign affair these are the things in the public domain and then you go to strategic conferences it’s all SE power in the UK at the moment future of the royal Navy and um Maritime NATO but there’ have been very interesting Revelations there I don’t think the alliance got together and was nearly not nearly rough enough with zilinski so you’re adroit as a political leader you have got to have a strategy you you have got to say what you’re prepared to put your main effort behind and what you’re you’re where you’re weak the weaknesses are glaring above all we haven’t got there yet C we have to they’re terribly weak in the air and they and Russia has managed to establish local Air dominance over the front line with things like standoff Glide bombs um with drones their drone technology their electronic warfare uh technology has improved no end they have been on a big learning curve which we have underestimated our Peril but by the way there’s one danger which afflicts both sides and it was very interesting talking to my colleague kimen gupto who’s managed to get out to Ukraine a lot alas age and infirmity has restricted me I wish I could go there but corruption affects both sides I think corruption was a very big part of the story of the removal of the uh of of the defense minister but it is very much afflicting afflicting the order of battle even what you can get into the front line with the Ukrainian forces Putin started with a maximalist ambition he wanted to take out the big cities he wanted to take out KV kiv adessa uh mikol the big the big do docton base and virtually closed down um industrial and Agricultural Product access to the black he’s still playing variations of that he he’s playing the instrument the trouble is if you look at the body language despite um the removal of shyu the shuffling at the top the firing of three deputies uh at the defense Ministry in Russia Putin is looking unusually confident they’re putting out pictures from the Kremlin where he looks more relaxed than he’s looked in in years about this you just sense that he feels he’s got the initiative now and he hasn’t completely shown his hand so if he feels the initiative and he hasn’t shown his hand I mean do you have any idea how long and how fast this particular offensive will be and how this fits into his strategy well I think we have to go to to China for this because um the language that has been coming out um from the summit uh between him and xiin ping has been very interesting and Ukraine is being mentioned and he’d been thanked for his uh help but the conversation is all diplomacy and I think that he will strike a blow probably and then try and get some equivalent of the 2014 2015 Minsk agreements initially K he wants the dbass that’s what he’s really after and he’s moving quite successfully his forces out to it as you say there are minimal result serves inside Ukraine for the Russian forces but uh the analysts who remarked on that haven’t factored in enough the forces over the Border in uh on the western borders of Russia and in bellus so it is a very very Dynamic picture at the moment so to what extent do you think that President Putin is now preparing the ground for some kind of peace talks depends what he wants and and and where he is it was um very interesting this week sorry I said to you I wouldn’t allude to this but the naval conference 75th Anniversary Naval Conference of um of uh NATO held in London did talk about Russia’s Maritime strategy and this is fascinating and it’s very important to Putin’s vision of Russia renewed as a global power and he wants Russia recognition recognition of Russia as a global Maritime power so what is he after he wants to ensure and strengthen access to the Baltic which is very worrying now that he’s surrounded by the b b Baltic uh Coastal Partners all but one a NATO uh uh now and the Black Sea but also the Arctic he’s he’s going very much wider when he talks about uh renewed alliances putting real strength behind the expanded bricks he really means it and I don’t think we’re following this nearly assiduously enough we’re we’re far too much consumed partly because the West Europe the United States UK are obsessed with their own electoral cycle okay you you said um it’s very interesting what’s coming out of President Putin’s visit to China to see Xi Jinping um obviously it’s early stages in that visit but but there there are uh statements coming out um beforehand that they had said that they they talked about the stabilizing relationship between two stabilizing forces in the world um first of all what did you think when you heard that well it it it’s part of a familiar story now we do not accept the rules-based order socalled established by the West uh the Target by the way is going to be for software is going to be is I is going to be um the UN but I’m not saying this is all pussycat country and let’s sit down and have a cup of tea and and talk it out over a samovar there is going to be hard power Exploration with this and this is where I think one of the most worrying things is where America feels itself at the moment America whoever is in charge in the White House feels it cannot handle three hot War crises two actual one potential at the same time and Europe and the European allies in NATO have got to step up to that and I don’t think this is being realized the three crisis of course are Ukraine actual War the horrendous possibility because it’s so open ended of Gaza Israel and things are really ramping up in the South Pacific particularly in the two Island chains coming off China Taiwan I wonder if I can get get your assessment of of what we’ve seen in the past week or so because it seems to me we’ve gone from a situation quite quickly from a relative stalemate on the front line to some significant Russian gains what’s your reading of the situation particularly in the northeast of Ukraine yeah so we’re talking about obviously around KV and the the basically the infiltration uh of the there was a sort of like a a No Man’s Land there really uh where it was covered by view in terms of like satellite and intelligence asset surveillance but not really from line troops like Manning you know positions right on the on the front line but strong points held in reserve further back and so the Russians were able to using small groups of mainly infantry and some armor support get through surprisingly a little bit so suggested and this could obviously be the case but there just not enough eyes on the area at the time uh and some question marks about exactly what happened on there you know was there some corruption potentially or some money Changing Hands yeah certainly Ukraine Ian commanders around the area were like how did this all happen it could just be General incompetence you know um it’s all you can’t rule that out in the military but um uh as an ex-military person uh but so essentially and then you come back to what is the what are the goals of this what’s the intent it’s difficult to Divine Russian intent of course but Vladimir Putin has frequently said he wants to create a buffer zone in that area to stop drone and missile attacks um on belgorod because this is one of the areas where you know you don’t have a buffer zone like the dbass it’s Ukraine straight into Russia across the border you know uh and and not this seized part of of Ukraine in the dbass which Russia has to give it a bit of depth so that’s the intent um as from the commander and we’ve seen different um chains of command move moving around some more forces being put up there we think around 30 to 40,000 Russian forces um but not the best troops uh and not having enough armor really for a major breakthrough that we think at the moment um and of course you know if if their idea is to create a buffer zone They seize these villages in the area around that they’re attacking on multiple different axes uh and haven’t gone so far that deep um and the the idea behind it is probably like okay we’ll create a buffer zone we’ll spread some Panic we’ll draw off the Ukrainian Reserve Who Who Are You know already stretched the Frontline troops are exhausted at this stage because they don’t have enough of them uh and and potentially draw away their Reserve from further south in the dbass and Zapp IIA region um so it’s a it’s got a number of different gains uh for Russia at this stage uh and worth trying and of course there’ll always be the like be prepared to if they if the lines do collapse well then we can try and move some units through whatever we have whether they have armor or not so I think it’s manyfold really what’s going on there uh it’s interesting to see the breaking news that they’ve pulled back from some of those border Villages I mean they’re not massively significant let’s be honest if of shans was to fall it’s significant because there’s some roads behind it which lead to kiv uh but even then we have to wait and see if F shans would would would fall um but it’s significant in this idea of Russia you know really being able to open what looks like and we can tell by some of the vehicles if you remember the V and then the Zed uh for the different fronts well there’s a new one which which strangely enough looks like one of the um one of the old Nazi units for example but uh it’s a square with a load of patterns through it to show that these These are forces for another front now could be deception or whatever but it’s certainly what the Russians are using and the buffer zone Theory I understand in theory but in practice how effective is that buffer zone because Ukraine has had success for for years now at striking targets quite deep inside Russia and with the provision of these new longrange attack hims the US are sending will it actually work the buffer zone yeah not really on that and and drone range you know think about it 100 20 miles at least and some of them you know getting to Moscow so it I think it’s more political you know it’s political and strategic it’s like I’ve created a buffer zone all across my border with Ukraine and what is it an eye on how does this end and what do I need yeah and if the in the back if you’re Putin is thinking six months out a year out that kind of thing you know and he’s looking at what could actually happen and how does what does a piece look like and I don’t want to border at any point with Ukraine I think that’s it essentially so so that’s why you do it and and it’s fairly low risk with some good out potential outcomes for them so and do you think if their objective is to create this buffer zone do you think that means that Russia may stop short of going all the way to harv City if it can I think that’s a suck at and see um depends you know because you reinforce success what do they have so the the general consensus here is like you look for Force composition to work out what is the intent and from my under limited you know open source understanding is one of the things that trusted people who look at this very closely that I would follow would say there’s lacking any un uh at the moment identified armor to do a major exploit yeah the second point is the defensive form of warfare is in the ascendancy because of the ubiquitous intelligence surveillance Target acquisition reconnaissance uh you know know digital space it’s very difficult to mass armor without being seen and then break through so it’s it’s difficult the only really way you can do it is if at the moment is if the forces collapse yeah if you’re if if the force you’re attacking the morale and cohesion just break the communication break and then you can just drive but if they stay in fight and they buy some time for intelligence assets and surveillance assets to be brought onto the location Things Are seen pretty easy and most forces especially armor have to disperse so and of course their combined effect is when they’re together and use a Mass for shock to break through so you can see why it gets very difficult to mass and break through it doesn’t mean it’s impossible but it’s much more difficult than say it was well let’s think you know even even in uh 2003 against IR rack we saw Mass armor drive through granted aack didn’t have great intelligence but you know uh that this this this change in technology means that you know even middle Power Nations like like Russia can can access it you know much cheaper I wanted to get your reaction Patrick to the breaking news we had just before we we started recording which is the President zalinski says he has cancelled all forthcoming foreign visits what is the significance of that difficult to tell exactly uh it looks like as it’s as as we’re talking about it’s these smaller Village around the um on the border which the ukrainians have withdrawn from what does it indicate really probably that this is some form of Crisis management that they need to stabilize the front my understanding as of last night around V chance not in these Villages further out than V Chans onto the Border was that things were starting to stabilize because they’d move more Ukrainian troops in now Russia do have a foothold there um I mean the kind of thing you’d probably do with v Chans if you were planning this is try to cut it off and go around it actually you wouldn’t you wouldn’t go into it if you didn’t you have to um so that’s my understanding of it at the moment you know it’s probably some form of Crisis management there’s a there might be politics about this he doesn’t need to be distracted he needs to focus on the front maybe um there’s that I mean there’s also the security element because it’s good to see blinkin get in there so soon after the um removal of the colonel in charge of the presidential security so um is good to had a grip on that because that was a high vote of confidence um in that system so there could be a security element too and probably symbolically significant as well even though many might say actually you know zilinski is possibly his most effective when he’s traveling the world drumming up support for Ukraine yeah does it and does it say is it internal for foreign visits is that a distraction because I need to be hosting people I like that was such a big on which would have come with blinking and so much planning gone into it or is it I’m not going anywhere you know and both make sense if you’ve got a pressing issue on the front yeah and you need to uh you need to deal with that so I don’t know we’ll just have to wait have to wait and see which which it it is exactly but um look it certainly indicates that there’s a sense that um attention needs to be focused domestically and on the front uh at the moment rather than drumming up support as it were I mean the blink and it was interesting as well because it was all about timelines and kiss and the ukrainians are looking for the um the Patriot systems now we think they’ve got somewhere between three and five in country at the moment they’re looking for another seven more I think Germany yesterday said they’ll find one which is great news um the us could could would be great if they gave them more I think blinking of the opinion that they should um and then they were talking about timelines you know how long does it take to get in where are they the us we know has got you know pre-positioned stocks of stuff in Germany they could get them across Patriot systems can be moved by strategic airlift so they can get them across fairly quickly and I think that’s the number one concern for the ukrainians because the Russians are starting to get into a bit of a Groove with being using their first of all hitting some of the Patriot not the actual batteries but some of the launchers themselves we’ve seen the last few months um they’re say down in zapia their Air Force is a bit more active that means they’re getting getting their electronic Warfare bubble and their their air their own uh air defense out to put a bubble this is what the Russians like to do you put the bubble over the front line and further back then get your air in report and then you can keep going a bit more so there certainly the long range air defense which is the Patriot is really important then there’s a short range air defense now that can get in really quickly because they Stinger missiles Etc man pads so um but that’s pressing too um so and then of course artillery you know where the the ukrainians are out gunned I don’t know far five to oneish at the moment a day uh just the Russians are firing maybe 10,000 shells a day the ukrainians 2,000 production in the US is ramping up the checks have done well to Source almost half a million on the open market and support but it’s coming from a low base and the ukrainians need more um so that is a that is you know it’s rising but so is Russia Rising too you know it’s put its economy 75% on a war footing banging out the shells pulling tanks out of storage and producing more so uh yeah I mean it’s a contest of economies at the moment is it bad news for Ukraine though because a lot of people said that shyu was actually a pretty ineffective defense minister it could be bad news for defense because if you have um greater techn technocrats uh there in and energizing the system uh then that could be bad news we think that the optimum means of production for Russia will sort of reach their Zenith by sort of the end of this year early 20125 if they can extend that because they got some sort of Guru Guru who can Guru who can do these sort of things and energize more parts of the military-industrial complex then that could be bad news for Ukraine it’s also of course bad news that the um the sort of axis of eil Evil between the crink Nations you know China Russia Iran North Korea seems to be sort of U in the ascendant as well worth noting of course that we think something like um 3 million shells have been delivered from North Korea to um to Russia up to sort of the end of uh April and it is that shell shortage uh particularly which has been one of the great weaknesses uh for Ukraine the ammo starvation which for example General cavoli the um Supreme Allied Commander in Europe talked about in mid April in his testimony to the house armed services committee and until the ammunition from the West ramps up in fact there’s four A’s we really need to talk about in terms of the western support which is uh Air Defense Artillery ammunition in the round and aircraft then that is likely to go in general Cav’s testimony from 5 to one to from 5 to1 to 10 to one in terms of the advantage which Russia uh Joys and you know artillery is the is the Russian God of War so that’s not good news in the interim so I think Russia are at the moment taking advantage of this lull from a Ukrainian side until the particularly the American Support stops arriving in great detail now we know since the 61 billion dollars was um voted for that the three packages have been allocated so far the third package this week of another 400 Mill $400 million to add to the 7.1 billion I think which was given before that but like all these things the central problem of logistic planning and therefore operational planning from the Ukrainian perspectives involves the differential and lead time until you can get those things in theater you’re going to be on the back foot now that doesn’t mean that things are completely um written off from a Ukrainian perspective and I think one of the things again which will be interesting to look at particularly in what is happening at the moment in the hke oblast and maybe to a limited extent in the Sumi old blast is can Russia increase its tempo of operations because what we’ve seen previously in this war is that after an ini initial shock or surprise things regress to an a norm and the norm is a what we call entropy in the military that is we the advances have been at a GL glacial paste now we used to talk about in the colde war days the thing called the operational maneuver group that was the exploitation Echelon which would break through a gap created by your initial maneuver forces then we might recall that at the start of this war we talked about Battalion tactical groups btg’s as the currency of the Russians none of that really is in train anymore the Battalion tactical groups have been replaced by very loose groupings of soldiers yeah you might call them companies battalions at some level but the expertise and training of those units to do any sort of maneuver above a a low level seems to be missing at the moment so it’ll be interesting to see if that maneuver can lead to breakthrough I don’t think it will at the moment but can they up the Norms which we’ve seen of how far a unit can move in a day which as I said has been glacial in this war so far mainly because of the transparen the battlefield to all the um sensors and satellite technology drones Etc which really do seem to have caveated the movement which both sides have been able to conduct on offensive operations talk about harv now um just give us the latest on what we understand has happened particularly over recent days because further gains have been made it would seem by the Russians yeah it seems that a significant number of villages have been taken and people quote um that 100 square miles have been lost to Ukraine now I think you always have to be slightly circumspect about what that means because for example the dones and Lans all Blaster 4.4% of the territory of um of Ukraine so 100 square miles in uh Ki OAS doesn’t actually mean that much but all these things both in dones Lans and Kiva really what does it lead to and I’ve often said that tactical battles are sequenced in support of operational objectives to fulfill strategic uh ends now we still therefore need to look at the whole range of problems across the front line which um face Ukraine we still have U near um mmmut and a diva the opening the way to the cities in dones Kos and Sloans with um chass chassid y still threatened that would be significant if that was taken in saparia we still have robertine which is threatened that would be significant if it would taken because that would also roll back the Gams of 2023 when Ukraine took it so all these things play into what I think I said about three months ago that the Russian proverb that the chicken pecks grain by grain seems to be evident at the moment uh it is that eroding stale might mate but uh how do you um redress the balance is the it is the the application of those new weapons again which will do that in the same way that uh the losing slowly in June 22 was also overcome by the um by the giving of high LS Precision strike and those sort of assets at the time so we’re in a bit of a sort of yo-yo or a roller coaster really in the same way uh we were in 2022 so I think the next three months will be in a way similar to what we saw between June 22 and September 22 uh I don’t think that the Russians will have the power to do a major offensive that was always going to be slotted we think for June this year um but they’re doing the best they can at the moment with the forces at the disposal before other assets are brought to bear for the ukrainians and that would make sense from their perspective I think is Ukraine suffering at the moment from the West’s long-standing insistence that Western supplied weapons cannot be used on Military targets inside Russia now I say the West there has been some movement the UK foreign secrety David Cameron has essentially said that Britain is now comfortable with Ukraine using British supplied weapons how it sees fit but broadly speaking that still applies is that hurting Ukraine at the moment yeah it caveats the distance of course of your deep battle uh and that 14% that I mentioned about the oil um refineries would probably be a lot bigger if you had the maximum range of of of weapons and of course there are certain countries which haven’t give given their deep battle weapons which would also um particularly be useful to um Ukraine here for example I’m thinking of the Germans with the tourist system now again in terms of the tourists many people talk about aams as being this sort of golden weapon which would destroy for example the kch kch bridge that’s probably not the case in terms of the fusing Warheads that go with with that when the time is is ready it would probably be a combination of um Storm Shadow sculp the fren sculp equivalent and Taurus if it were there which would be the enabling weapons to take down the Kirch Bridge it is not probably the aachens thank you for watching Frontline for times radio for more click subscribe on our YouTube channel you can listen to times radio and you can read more about the war in Ukraine and Global Security with your times digital subscription

Putin’s offensive has begun to slow as Ukraine works to halt Russian forces from reaching Lyptsi and bombarding Kharkiv. The Kremlin may be considering suing for peace as they face another risky wave of mobilisation, This week’s experts tell #timesradio ‘s Frontline Recap:

Maj. Gen. Tim Cross
The Times’s Maxim Tucker
Robert Fox, Evening Standard’s defence editor
Dr Patrick Bury, Reader (Assoc Prof) in Security from University of Bath
Maj. Gen. Chip Chapman

📻 Listen to Times Radio – https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio

📍 Subscribe to our channel – http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTjDhFuGXlhx9Us0gq0VK2w?sub_confirmation=1

🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/radio-3for3/

📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-to-listen-to-times-radio/app