Senate Democrats don’t believe Biden’s bad polls, either
https://www.axios.com/2024/05/19/biden-senators-swing-states-polling
Senate Democrats don’t believe Biden’s bad polls, either
https://www.axios.com/2024/05/19/biden-senators-swing-states-polling
33 comments
Who cares? Don’t be lazy. Vote.
Democrats have private internal polls that disagree with the current public polling. 🤷
Why not act like they’re real and do as much as possible to try to turn them around just in case anyway?
Fuck the polls. Go and vote like our democracy depend on it, because it’s not hyperbole to say it does.
Not registered? Register here: https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote
Realistically, without a major shift in polling, the three contests that will decide the election are WI, MI and PA.
If Biden can carry those three, he wins. If he can’t, he loses.
All three are within statistical error – down from a 5-8 pt Trump lead just a couple months ago.
[Wisconsin](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/)
[Michigan](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/)
[Pennsylvania](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/)
So things are charting Biden’s way, and there are reasons to suspect they’ll continue.
* This is with the Israel conflict at its likely point of worst damage. Either Israel moderates its response in the coming couple months, or Biden can shift his position to be more critical of them and see gains.
* This is with the economy still growing and wages recovering from last year’s inflationary period.
* This is before the conventions.
* This is before the debates.
* This is before the ad spends (Biden is VASTLY outraising Trump).
* This is before the trials finalize.
Biden needs to manage the international stage (specifically Israel and Ukraine), potentially manage his immigration stance, have a coherent message on housing and personal debt, and not gaff the debates…and he should be in a very strong position. There’s work to do, but a very strong position, just the same.
Biden should campaign on big tax cuts for low and middle income workers. I.e. those most impacted by inflation.
Was recently digging into the recent (PDF!)[IPSOS/ABC poll](https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1232a22024Election.pdf)(PDF!) that’s being thrown around for “Strongly trust” numbers on issues, and while Trump’s “Strongly trust” numbers beat out Biden’s on most issues, save for, iirc, healthcare and abortion, the actual sign of **hope** within this poll is the “Somewhat trust” numbers.
On every issue, more “Somewhat trust” Biden than Trump, and that tends to be the more tepid or on the fence voters. We know Trump supporters are cemented for Trump.
What goes well with this is the “favorable or unfavorable” question, and I’m fumbling all my talk here for some reason, so here’s just a quote from the poll:
>More people see Biden as a person unfavorably than favorably, 40-51 percent, favorable-unfavorable. But Trump’s score, as noted, is worse, 33-58 percent. And 44 percent see Trump strongly unfavorably, 10 points more than say the same for Biden.
It sounds like most sane or undecided folk prefer Biden, which is a big positive that isn’t really being said, and everything gets a little slanted by Trump’s fanatics. If I remember right, it was similar in 2020, but also not really broadcasted by major outlets. They like their horse race, even if it means our self destruction.
Well, of course they’re not going to publicly admit that they believe the polls.
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Don’t have to believe it, but should take it seriously.
Just Vote Blue.
i think people lie to poll takers these days.
I have no doubt Biden wins the popular vote. It’s the Electoral College I’m worried about.
I think its likely polls are over estimating Trump but even if they are off by a couple points Biden is still not looking great. Nevada and Arizona seem to be particularly weird at the moment there is no way he is down double digits in Nevada but possibly a couple points its still not good.
What we’re down to is two elderly men, neither of whom is terribly sharp mentally, but one of whom wants to be a dictator and turn the US into Nazi Germany-lite. The other one…doesn’t.
Believe it or not – act like it is and campaign your asses off, Dems
The polls in 1988 were 26 points off. The polls since the over turning of Roe V. Wade have on average been 11% off in Dems favor. While the polls should not be this close I am predicting a big Blue wave. Those who are affected by the abortion issue will be motivated and they are the population lost in the current polls.
They shouldn’t.
Polls aren’t really polls any more. They’re just properly applied questionnaires.
I drove through a rural area of Maryland today, a handful of small, heavy-red towns. I only saw a single Trump flag being waved, and even then it was a Trump 2020 flag. In 2016 and 2020 I’d see tons of Trump flags on peoples lawns & houses and buildings. Just my anecdotal observation
Polls are bullshit generated by the for-profit corporate run media. Zero credibility.
Polls really don’t mean much anymore. Who takes polls? People who are home to answer their land line phones in the middle of the day and have time to answer a bunch of questions. In other words, retirees. People who are old enough to retire, can afford to retire, and are outdated enough to keep a landline are definitely a right leaning crowd, making the polls loaded.
Aren’t these “registered voter” polls? Those tend to be pretty different
I don’t either
Going after TikTok was a huge mistake. Weird stuff is going on now.
There has hardly been a race since 2018 that the polls didn’t underestimate the progressive candidate or position
2018 was a blue wave. Biden in the grand scheme of things won rather handily in 2020. 2022 was supposed to be a red wave with a not good dem map. …didnt happen.
Whitmer, Fetterman….Wisconsin supreme court. Kansas abortion. There hardly has been an election that the centrist or left candidate didnt overperform
The polls are f’d up and I dont care what Nate Silver or Nate Cohn say
Polls crosstabs are so nonsensical there has to be something inherently flawed about the polls.
This just seems like propaganda to trick Dems into not voting.
I find it extremely hard to believe that Trump is ahead that much in Nevada, and out of all the rust belt states, Biden leads in only Wisconsin.
Idiots were confident in 2016 as well
No complacency. Remember 2016. Vote.
Polls are bullshit. It’s not 1980 anymore. The only people you are going to reach are clueless elderly people who still have landlines.
The US electoral college is just undemocratic. Popular vote = winner in fair democracies.
Just vote like democracy will disappear if you don’t