Russia Surges Across the Front!

Russia Surges Across the Front!

Russian forces seem to be advancing across the front line but is this part of Ukraine’s strategy or is this a sign of momentum swinging into Russia’s favor I’m Paul US Army Combat veteran let’s talk about it so overall let’s take a look here at the front line uh so in the last 24 hours you can see this is as this update was as of the 19th at about 400 p.m. uh you’re seeing Russian forces advance in a bunch of different places uh you see them advancing here near rotina which I think is as we’ve talked about this is not really worth holding this is part of this Ukrainian um counter offensive effort but given that they’re not really trying to Stage a breakthrough here there’s not really tremendous reasons to hold this terrain you can see it’s open it is uh hilly but it doesn’t really lead to anywhere of substantive value so when I see Russia make advances here um I think Ukraine is just not willing to expect significant portions of its Personnel to hold this territory again that looks like something that seems to be characteristic of siriri as a commander but now when we look to the east you can see there’s a few other again pretty low stakes advances you can see Russia seizing a wind break here uh that’s doesn’t really put it much closer to anywhere a little bit maybe closer to this parisco Kea uh you can see Russian forces also trying to Leap Frog uh from the village of Noom miva and hop into Paris kka this is probably one of the uh tougher assaults we know that Russian Force is very proficient at moving block by block through an area um but have a somewhat harder time Crossing open ground so the fact that they were able to make this Lea frog um and dig in gain of footholds here in Paris goka is itself a not a great sign for uh Ukrainian forces is this was likely to be one of the areas where they’re most likely to hold out against Russian forces um moving further to the north you can see Russian forces also making some advances around natova uh trying to secure kind of the last uh last couple of buildings in the town um as they Again Begin to advance up through the center um we’ve talked about this that Russia seems to be committed to advancing here but it’s really not clear that uh they hold this Northern flank and without this Northern flank it’s it’s not really immediately obvious what um what their overall strategy will be right Ukraine doesn’t want its forces to get pinned here which is very possible um but likewise Russia doesn’t want to Surge in and end up pinned in the same spot but Russia seems committed to taking territory of at all costs and you can see what’s interesting is that the only point of the map where you’re seeing a a small repositioning of Russian forces uh is just this Windbreak here near umansky which to me again is indicative of the fact that Russia really doesn’t control this Northern flank as much as they might like to um moving further north you can see again uh that there’s Russian forces making some minor advances of little consequence in Novo poov uh a a seizing again some some wind breaks um but that not really on the route to anywhere um what’s more troubling is this sort of surge well into caramic it’s not or around caramic it’s not it’s self um troubling right you can see this isn’t really uh territory of any particular value but it is troubling when you see Russian forces try to carve off more of this uh roadway here again it’s not a huge deal because as you can see uh the road is already held by Russia here um to the South so they’re really only seizing maybe two additional kilometers of roadway but Russia may want to secure this kind of Road and prevent Ukrainian forces from holding um holding it along the flanks as part of some kind of goal potentially to advance maybe in parallel through these Villages here while supported by arm forces moving along this roadway uh but again in the short in the Tactical sense I don’t think these are are nothing we’ve seen here is terrain that I think was worth it for Ukraine to really dig in and fight over um what is interesting though is and we’ll take a look at the live UA map here uh is that actually Russian forces um are claiming that they’ve seized biva um which is unusual Russia usually you know sometimes they’re a little fast and loose with their claims usually it seems like Russia uses occupying the center of a town as their metric for claiming control but this is somewhere where again you can see live UA map had said that Russian forces weren’t within even a kilometer of the downtown biva uh and you see something similar here uh where the distance between the closest point of the front line and downtown biva is is almost a kilometer so I think uh that’s a little troubling if true um again you can see it sort of makes sense that this would be a point where they would want to attack but um a a that is more of a troubling development I would say um Russia making a 1 km Advance into the center of a town in a in an area of the front that has had very little uh contestation for several months uh but when we move Look North you can see I believe there’s one last Point yeah there we go so there is a small area that’s now listed as contested and more significantly you could see the Russian forces advancing through this open field in Barista uh so all told right you can see there’s a lot of advances not in any individual case oh I’m sorry there’s one last one with as we talked about uh Russian forces is occupying the northern part of the detet here again this is not something where I’m like where I think you should be writing home about it um this is something that I think is just good practice there’s nothing in this forested area that’s worth holding and it’s absolutely worth it for Ukrainian forces to try to defend on the south and Eastern portions of the river um but you can see V chanks uh still a larger portion of venk is listed as being under Uh Russian or contested uh with the vula river forming kind of the new boundary between the town and Russian forces um when we look over at live UA map there’s a couple of different notes Here particularly they have a different mapping outcome for uh volens they have a smaller contested region um but you can see here Ukrainian military control half of volens and heavy clashes are ongoing according to the regional Administration um right in addition to this uh claim that Russia has made that they are in possession of uh bifa uh so an interesting what I think the takeaway here that I see is that Russia is continuing the strategy that we’ve talked about at some length uh where they are applying pressure across the front line um and Ukraine in turn I think is trying to be more conservative right there was a very uh Zusi as a commander had a very um not one- inch backward kind of mentality siriri much more willing to fight what’s called an elastic defense or even a defense in depth where they yield some low value territory um I think that creates kind of the illusion that Russia is enjoying more success than it is um but you saw in some places right individual Villages might be threatened but in a lot of places it’s almost like Russian forces are just advancing into Open Fields which appear to have very little return there’s certainly not really a concentrated effort in any along any one axis which itself is kind of interesting um but I think again this is just indicative of a uh Soviet style pressure war of continuous pressure um and a Ukrainian commitment to a more elastic defense and it makes sense for both sides right Russia believes that Ukrainian Personnel are low they believe that material the material um supplies of the Ukrainian military is also somewhat low um and Ukraine in turn believes that with the new conscription law and the coming uh tide of Western Aid or the Western Aid tide that is coming in that fighting their fight in the future will be much more successful and I think that’s true and I think that’s what they are trying to do they’re trying to conserve their resources power so that when they do deploy them um they have the ability to launch a more decisive Counterattack I think it also may actually be part lulling Russia into a sense of security the longer Russia sits in a in a fixed position the better they are a digging in and I think for Ukraine to sit there and say hey we are going to to um not have the Russians dig in in any one place because they’re always going to be advancing starting from scratch digging their for ifications that may actually work to their advantage um anyway guys that’s really all I had for you um there’s some other stories about Russian mil bloggers but I think I’m going to save that for another video um of course if you are interested in strike gum right if you’ve been thinking about it um now is definitely the time because we finally launched our five pack you can see five packs five pieces per pack 25 pieces 25 bucks right each one of these 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Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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