Would Russia risk its partnership with China over using nuclear weapons in Ukraine? | DW News
now Russia’s military says that it has begun tactical nuclear weapons drills near Ukraine the exercises are taking place in Russia’s Southern military District which according to the Kremlin includes parts of Ukraine under occupation now Moscow says the drills are in response to threats from some Western officials it’s the first time that Russia has publicly announced drills that involve tactical nuclear weapons while its strategic nuclear forces regularly hold exercises Kates zisk is Professor of international relations and contemporary history at the Norwegian Institute for defense studies she joins us joins us now welcome to DW um what kind of weapons are we talking about here I mean what are tactical nuclear bombs exactly so they are considered less powerful than intercontinental ballistic missiles they will have normally a small smaller yield they can be small as to one uh kiloton and so they are considered for Battlefield used so the threshold for the use may be lower uh they can be carried by uh sea loued uh missiles air lunched missiles uh landbased missiles artillery and they are not really subject to uh Arms Control such as intercontinental ballistic missiles which is uh also why we do not really know exactly how Russia how many of these Warheads Russia has but the estimate is around, 1500 to 2,000 okay so these are not the kind of weapons that can wipe out whole cities but of course they are tactical nuclear bombs exactly yes so so that’s why again this is the the the the the threshold for for the use is is considered to be lower so and I did want to ask you I mean How likely is it that Russia will actually use weapons like these in the war against Ukraine yeah I this is a question that many has posed I mean nobody can really exclude that but I think con right now the risk is not uh very high for a number of reasons why is that uh Russia is doing relatively well on the battlefield another is that Russia has been warned by the United States by China against such use and I think These Warnings has actually had effects uh when it comes to China in particular Russia has made itself more and more dependent uh which also uh makes that Moscow has to listen carefully what Beijing has to say in that matter and Russia has not been able really to coers with its nuclear threats nuclear intimidation Ukraine uh to to back off and neither uh has it helped Russia to to uh contain the scope of of help uh to to uh from the Western countries to uh to Ukraine in the in the beginning yes but it expanded more and more so I think also Russia has not been really able to convince that Russia has much higher stakes in this war than the United States or NATO uh which both consider the war presented the war as existential not only for Ukraine but also for European and transatlantic security okay can I ask you if these kind of weapons were used how would they change the course of the war um well it depends uh so they would be primarily Russia would use them primar for political effect so Russia would try to coers Ukraine and the West the United States to back off to accept Russia’s conditions for ending the conflict uh but so so the the objective would be to shock and pressure but we’ve seen that this is also a psychological game in a sense and Russia has not been really able to convince that or had a certainty that NATO the United States would not react and that it would not actually lead to a very very dangerous escalation so which is also possible in case Russia would would use nuclear weapons so in Russia in Moscow there will be assessing to what extent this kind of use will actually well will have an effect but also a response so there will be waging costs and risks uh of of such an escalation and that’s why staying United and sending a signal to Moscow this will not not intimidate neither Ukraine nor the West is extremely important also to lower the risk of actual nuclear use all right we’ll have to leave it there Kat zis with the Norwegian Institute uh for defense studies thank you so much for your time thank you very much Mark Canan joins me now he’s a retired colonel in the US Marine Corps and a senior adviser with the International Security program at the center for strategic and International Studies welcome to DW news uh now is Russia merely posturing with these drills or is there more to it I think there’s more to it this time I think they are signaling to the West that NATO troops will not be acceptable in Ukraine that has been one of Russia’s red lines since the beginning of the war NATO has respected that uh but now you’re hearing NATO members talking about possibly moving troops into NATO of course we heard about President mcon but the estonians have said that they might send rear Echelon troops trainers into uh Ukraine uh and zilinsky himself is talking about having NATO uh aircraft shooting down Russian missiles in Ukraine so faced with this Rising uh discussion about possibly sending NATO forces into Ukraine I think this is Russia’s response nuclear threats have been part of Russia’s strategy in Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion um has that been effective so far well I think it has been effective uh there were a number of incidents early on where the Russians rattled their nuclear saber and that made the West nervous I think that’s one reason that the United States for one uh hesitated to provide long range missiles attackers for example which they’ve just provided U because of the concerns over uh escalation uh the Russians had backed off from their nuclear threats and that’s likely in response to uh criticisms by uh China done privately uh that they did not want to see escalation so it’s been a while since we’ve seen one of these kinds of threats the US has previously downplayed concerns that uh Russia could deploy a nuclear weapon in Ukraine but behind the scenes what kind of scenarios do you think the US has prepared for well the United States has hedged a bit about the possible uh use of nuclear weapons now the United States watches very carefully to see whether the Russians are actually moving nuclear weapons into places where they they could be launched and that has not been the case uh since the beginning of the war despite all the saber rattling the Russians have not increased the Readiness of their nuclear forces and they have not now uh but uh the United States has been uh uh very careful about what it provides and not appearing uh to attack the Russian Homeland but if we’ll go back in time to the the Cold War there was this established line of direct communication between the US and and uh and Mos go to prevent nuclear escalation do we know if there’s something similar in place at the moment well those uh lines of communication were uh are still in use you know they talk about the you know the the red phone uh it’s not actually a phone it’s actually a teletype U but there those Communications are still in existence when I was in the Pentagon uh a colleague brought me down to where that communication takes place hour they test the system so it’s very easy for the United States to communicate uh to the Russians okay we’ll have to leave it there but we appreciate your insights mark kenian thank you for speaking to us thanks for having me on the show
Russia’s military says it has begun tactical nuclear weapons drills near Ukraine.
The exercises are taking place in Russia’s Southern Military District which, according to the Kremlin, includes parts of Ukraine under occupation.
Moscow says the drills are in response to threats from some Western officials. It’s the first time Russia has publicly announced drills that involve tactical nuclear weapons while its strategic nuclear forces regularly hold exercises.
For more on this, we talk to Katarzyna Zysk. She is professor of International Relations and Contemporary History at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies.
And we talk to Mark Cancian. He’s a retired Colonel in the US Marine Corps, and a senior Adviser with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
00:00 Intro
00:33 Interview with Katarzyna Zysk
04:49 Interview with Mark Cancian
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#Russia #NuclearWeapons #Drills
22 comments
Most dumbest title ever , Russia will get the okay from China to use Nuclear weapons . Secondly China probably encourage it given how the US is trying to box in China via Taiwan . Russia using nukes opens up the box of China using nukes and if US responds to strikes in China . Mainland US becomes a target ……..
Many countries have such weapons so why should we be concerned about one country? If we cower then it will become obvious that every country must have the same weapons.
What would be the benefit to Putin in using them? Will it end the war? Or will it provoke a more concentrated and united response?
Only those in certain positions know what the response will be. But there's no guarantee it won't backfire.
Russia is getting weak that's why they are escalating their use of force
Ok Pinocchio , keep reading your little teleprompter 😂
USA wants world war 3 n Russia are ready to give them
How is the " de-escalation ' tactic working out Scholtz and Biden as well?
That’s a intimidating tactic’s of putin, he can’t do it. He cannot afford to be bomb by west.
Putin's Russia needs to be called out for the terrorist state that it has become.
But Ukraine was a part of Russia was it? And the whole reason for this attack was denazification. Nothing has changed in the Russian mindset since the czarist days. No respect for human life and they just say things even if they know that you know that they are just talking BS. The best way to understand Russia is still reading Solzhenitsyn. Only the puppets changed. The state, the organs and the population are essentially the same. Only a matter of time that a second Stalin surfaces.
how likely does a cop pull his sidearm in a fight when losing enough or enough danger?
the flying tigers harrassed japanese planes pre-war supposedly and so maybe Pearl Harbor attack was pre-emptive provoked but i hate it they apologize because it saved atleast 100,000 american lives who beliebved they did not start it …also the reason for two nukes was japan did not surrender for one until the threat of more than the two nukes dropped ….
Getting the poorly-informed all worked up over nuclear weapons may drive viewership, but it hardly constitutes a public service. Russia is not on the verge of using nuclear weapons. Russia hasn’t proposed a ceasefire, much less terms for a peace treaty. Using nuclear weapons without having some sort of proposal on the table invites a reply in kind; i.e., a US warhead employed against a suitable target on Ukrainian soil. At the very least, we should expect a massive USAF operation in response against Russian targets in Ukraine if for no other reason than to discourage Russia from believing that use of nukes won’t get a reaction of equal or greater significance. That’s not what Russia is after. If Russia intends to intimidate Ukraine and the West into dancing to the Russian tune, Russia can hardly expect any dancing until the song is selected, the band hired, and the instruments tuned for play. There not being a song, a band, or a request for dance, Russia isn’t about to initiate nuclear warfare just for the sake of shocking Ukraine and the West. There’s too much that can go wrong at a time when Russia is not clearly losing the war.
USA put men on the moon AND nuked a place TWICE….nah nah nah nah Putin….
Interesting video NATO is obviously not afraid of Russia's threats but it's very interesting to hear that China has warned Russia against the use of Nuclear weapons.
Russian are just stirring an idea but don't use nuclear anyway..i think this moves r just warning of missile supply to Ukraine.. this is how Putin says to stop the supply😂 nothing to do with the Russian chinese friendship.. Russian don't need weak china.. Russian are not shy to use thier guns.. china use water
Expired nukes, terrible maintenance. They lose on the ground so threatens nukes. Well, let’s see the balls. Russia is heavily losing in Ukraine, and now Ukraine is attacking inside Russia. Nukes are terrible. But, he also knows that Russia will be a blanket of death also if they fire any. The licking of Balls in China did not work. Last resort, Putin says “show the expired nukes fast 😬”
No nuclear weapon use, Putin has threatened the use of them about 5,000 times now.
Tactical nukes can destroy towns. Ranging from 1 to 50 kilotons, it's not the yield that makes them tactical.
50 Kilotons may not wipe Berlin off the map, but it is a really bad decade for a whole lot of towns in Europe. What makes them tactical isn't the yield so much as the mechanism of detonation such that the weapons are very light (comparatively) and therefore deliverable by different means (smaller rockets, glide bombs etc…)
Imagine dreaming up threats of NATO "expansion" and making yourself a vassal of Beijing. Putin's fan boys must be so pround.
Tactical is 1 to 50 Kt. Those dropped in WW2 were around 15. So tactical includes 3x bigger than WW2.
..they could even dock on asteroids and steer it to earth guided and not traceable either
The West will NEVER be bullied into a retreat while Russia tries to subjugate one country after another with China’s help to become the world’s super continent between the Atlantic and Pacific. NEVER!