Putin’s Strategy Seems Crazy-Until You See the Big Picture!

Russia is continuing its Advance across the front line but are they not really sure where they’re going at all and is there a deeper front they’re planning on opening I’m Paul US Army Combat veteran let’s talk about it okay so the story here for the front line is the same one that we’ve seen for several days now and that is a kind of bizarre lack of change right so the Russia is advancing sure but where they’re advancing is a pretty low return right so you can see here chavar this is what we think is Russia’s main effort right now and you can see they’ve made a a somewhat meaningful Advance through this forested area here we know this is perfectly in line with Russian tactics they’re very good at advancing through dense forested and urban areas and this is likely their best bet but you can see that their advances really rely on controlling the FL and then advancing the center and you could see that with this Advance you know that Russia’s next pushes are going to have to be near calanka or here along the South right they’re going to have to advance along this roadway before they start to move through the center uh and occupy parts of urban chivar the other areas where we see Russian Advance is clka and you can see that these what’s weird about them is they’re not mutually supporting efforts right they’re actually far enough away that this uh that they don’t really provide like any kind of mutually supporting position they’re almost 8 kilomet apart uh so and you can see this Advance here is again a Russian refinement of their tactic where in this case they control the flanks right you can see they control this portion of The High Ground uh Northwest of kicha and they control this Windbreak rail line to kiva’s East and now then they are advancing into the town itself now bear in mind I use the word Town there’s nothing left of Kiva some of the video we’ve seen there’s only pile there was only pile piles of bricks a year ago and you can imagine as a contested Zone it’s probably even more uh destroyed now but you’re likely going to see Russia try to stabilize their their front a little bit here um but again without further advances they’re unlikely to take the entirety of the village of Kiva and again I think if you’re Ukraine you’re probably looking and you’re saying there’s nothing here to defend there’s no reason to waste lives holding on to piles of bricks um instead a better bet would be to just encourage the Russians to move in here and inflict large casualties as they withdraw to these more defensible uh positions in the Heights um that’s again I I A lot of people are saying oh this the the momentum is swinging in Russia’s favor but I don’t think that it is I think that uh for Russia they are Ukraine is simply willing to yield some small territories to Russia as part of a new defense in depth strategy that relies on just atting Russian forces uh and you can see here right this a quintessential example of it any anywhere of value in Cross Noka right any one of these city blocks uh Russia hasn’t been able to advance but where they have advanced is out into an open field and while again I strongly ECT Russian command has an emphasis on taking Square uh kilometers of territory as the most important metric for Success um Ukraine is yielding this sort of low value territory I mean imagine do you want to be the Russian conscript that leaves the sa relative safety of these buildings to charge across this open field and then dig in in the middle of literal nowhere uh under Ukrainian drone observation and artillery fire absolutely not it sounds awful and the fact that Russian command is having their troops do this uh again seizing utterly valueless terrain is itself um I think a sign of kind of the Russian priority priorities uh but that’s not the only source of Russian like continued effort again Russia it’s weird because Russia thinks they’re winning I think Ukraine acknowledges though their defense is going is going according to plan um it’s sort of a weird exploitation of their Mutual efforts and and you can kind of see the summary here right we’ve got Russia attacking in their har front they’re attacking here actually quite a bit near fatova um and you could see attacks um near chavar as well as near glka near denet city um but again a broad SWA of fighting without any real sort of concentration or or deeper strategy um again attrition is a strategy like don’t don’t don’t kid yourselves and and again Russia believes it is executing on its strategy which is seize all terrain at any cost continually apply pressure to Ukrainian forces and continue to seize the initiative with offense Ukraine says we are going to conduct a defense in depth yield territory to maximize the infliction of casualties while we replenish our supplies to transition to the offensive guys if you are interested in seeing some of the combat footage from this fighting a video is dropping today on combat news.com you guys know YouTube and a lot of sponsors they demonetize my videos very routinely um sponsors are very very rare to reach out so I depend on you guys to keep me able to do this every day any one of these tiers is going to get you access to the videos um but if you want to support the channel Additionally the lieuten tier or even the carinal tier will get you the special shout outs um and I appreciate all you guys that do this so check it out combet news.com we’re taking a look at the footage from this fighting literally today now this is also more interesting Western officials including some who share borders with Russia are warning that Russian intelligence Services intend to increase the sabotage activities and other hybrid operations against NATO member countries and this is really interesting okay Norway is of course police Security Service the Norwegian FBI and their intelligence Wing the Norwegian CIA warned that Russian forces may be trying to sabotage Norwegian arm suppliers and other Norwegian organizations involved in delivering military material to Ukraine right uh Counter Intelligence head uh said that the Norwegian armed supplier should be on high alert that Russian actors are planning acts of sabotage in Western Norway where Norwegian Naval bases and oil gas infrastructure are located this is for a couple of reasons you can see directly how this benefits Russia one Norway is a significant Aid provider to Russia um the nordics are some of the most uh as a proportion of GDP the nordics are some of the highest contributors to Ukraine’s defense um right if we look up Ukraine Aid as a percent of GDP uh there’s actually some pretty useful uh Maps here let’s see if we can find it Ukraine Aid there we go uh Ukraine Aid is a percentage of GDP uh let’s see uh you see that the nordics are really in the lead here um with Estonia contributing 1% of its whole country’s gross domestic product that’s 1% of the entire Estonian economy it’s been donated to Ukrainian efforts laia a similar number Lithuania and Poland both doing um you know a 605th of a percentile and and and to give you guys context these look like small numbers but understand that this means that every single dollar of goods that are produced in the entire country of Estonia one cent of the that dollar gets sent to Ukraine right uh but you could see oh my God I just wanted I just want the image man open image thank you okay Norway you could see in terms of statistical contribution on par with the United States right a significant driver of Aid um to Ukraine so it makes sense of course given that they also share a border that Russia is going to be Target Norway as a is a prime target for sabotage operations and of course oil and gas infrastructure you have to think that if uh Western countries are less able to sell oil that would make Russian oil more vulnerable um and you guys know that even individual attacks on oil infrastructure often times can impact the short-term price of a barrel of oil right so an oil and gas infrastructure attack particularly one that makes the news and is is is a spectacle um is going to you know raise oil prices fairly dramatically and then uh in the short term that would allow Russia to make you know Millions potentially even tens of millions of additional dollars selling the same oil for the new high price right but the polls have also found the exact same thing uh arresting and charging suspects for engaging in Acts of sabotage in Poland on behalf of Russian Security Services um right uh there’s also a warning from Poland uh president uh that Russian actors these are Russian agents right they’re not literally actors plan to illegally smuggle thousands of migrants from Africa to Europe and there than 90% of those recently apprehended entering Poland had Russian visas in their passports meaning that Russia is actually facilitating some of these migrant crises because Russia is attempting to create an an artificial migrant crisis um a repeat of what they did in Finland in late 2023 in order to drive wedges in NATO and the EU because they know that migrant crises right border countries uh suffer worse than interior countries and it has routinely driven a big wedge among those countries who have very different responses to a surge of M of migrants um right and this is of course just to make the European um decision making more complicated more fraught and to diminish the unified front that Europe is currently pushing particularly ahead of European parliamentary elections so that is the Russian strategy in a nutshell guys like we said it involves a high attrition strategy of on the battlefield and it involves politically isolating and obstructing uh the efforts of Ukraine’s diplomatic and logistical backers so stay strong stay aware and thank you to our colel tier members thank you to our 10 tier members I will see all you guys over there literally right after this right after this we’re taking a look at the footage so I’ll see you over there cheers

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Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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Original Video:
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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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31 comments

  2. at 4:10 did you almost say "Russian PrioriTAY" channeled your inner south park and narrated Russian actions through Cartman as they deserve? if so, AUTHORITAY granted

  3. Tch, Russians weaponizing rught wing sentiments with migrant crises is so gross. It's the worst kind of political manipulation.

  4. I for one was supprised by Bulgaria, I know a little more on the history of Romania and hungary then bulgaria its interesting to see there giving alot to Ukraine good job.

  6. Wow, before Ukraine the World Believed Russia to be the Second most Powerful Military in the World!!! Now, we know they can't successfully Invade their Neighbors Territory after 800+ Days of their SMO😮!! SLAVA UKRAINE 🇺🇦🙏🇺🇲

  8. According to expert and reputable sources, with the right approach and support, Kyiv Can Still Win. What Ukraine needs is not just more assistance but also a theory of victory. Ukraine and its partners must get on the same page regarding how the goals of a victory theory might be achieved. Here is what various sources (Foreign Affairs, CNBC, ChatGPT) offer as a path to victory:

    1. Sponsor conversations with all western allies about a “shared” vision of a “victory” or cease-fire, what a Ukrainian ‘victory’ means and what steps and resources would be needed to achieve it.”
    2. Inflict grave damage to the economy and society of Crimea.
    3. Significantly increase the number of drones to fulfill all these tasks.
    4. Step up strikes deep inside Russia, not only continuing to hit Russian oil facilities, military bases, and weapons factories, but also increasingly air defense systems.
    5. Increase pressure on the economic and information fronts to introduce a much more aggressive secondary sanctions campaign against any company operating in Russia.
    6. Mount an aggressive information campaign, comparable to that waged against Nazi Germany in World War II or the Soviet Union during the height of the Cold War, to affect perception of the war within and outside Russia.
    7. Undermine Putin’s regime and its appearance of success and infallibility. The Putin regime’s stability is a mirage produced by the repression it exerts. Use this repression against the regime.
    8. Ukraine’s defense industry should collaborate directly with the west.
    9. Disrupt attempts at russification of Crimea, Donetsk Luhansk Zaporizhia and Kherson by damaging the handing out Russian passports, pensions and benefits while erasing Russian culture, history and language from public spaces and schools.

  10. This guy was a cop in the military. He never actually been in a real war. He knows nothing about the activities of real. Men

  11. Mr. Putin is not stupid. People have a tendency to label something that they don't understand "crazy", "stupid", "wrong".

    In the game of football, the next pay is using "tactics". "strategy" is the coach overseeing the game.

    I have previously written that the Russians study a book written by Mrashal Suvorov of Russia. He worn over 70 battles and never lost one. The book is not in translation. I have searched world wide. The US military academy at West Point doesn't even have a Russian copy. I have made suggestions how to generate a nearly free translation – letter ignored.

    1. troop losses are meaningless because Russia can pay poor people from other countries to be cannon fodder.
    2. armored vehicles are being fielded at the rate that battle ground vehicles are being destroyed.
    3. Russia has control of the news sources and opinions. One of the reasons that the US "lost" the Vietnam War is because the press was allowed to be embeded in the military forces and report daily.
    4. there is no discussion that Russia had a lease on Crimea, that the area does not have electrical generation or water except through a canal. The political air in the Ukraine was starting to blow against the Russians remaining. Mr. Putin had to plan around that situation. It was cheap enough to bribe the UA fleet to defect except for one ship. It was cheap to send "green men" to eastern Ukraine to set up a buffer zone and create a land route to Crimea. It was also cheap enough to build a bridge to Crimea. However, former weak countries were becoming more robust in their economies and military alliances. It was easy enough to invade the Ukraine. Now, Mr. Putin can not retreat without being deposed. He can step back and declare a cease fire, ask for a cessation of hostilities or armistice, and recoup and regroup for further military action to safeguard his interests.

  12. The Russians take what the Ukrainians give them, the world has seen what happens when Ukraine does not want to give up land. Those people saying the Russians are gaining momentum are click baiting

  13. Russia is winning but at huge cost. It is no longer a super power but still a nuclear power, so on a par with North Korea. Sure Putin would like that comparison. The grab for sea territory is harder to deal with without blowing up Russian ships and shotting down planes which means escalation to war with NATO. That way Putin can increase his standing domestically. It is a leaf out of China's play book on Taiwan

  15. Norway is Europe's number one provider of natural gas since Russia is sanctioned.

    Curiously the Polish Baltic pipeline from Norway opened on the same day that Nordstream 1 and 2 pipeline from Russia were bombed

  18. So, Russia is attempting asymmetric actions against the West? This should come as no surprise, since they have been doing so for nearly twenty years already. And the West still does not respond strongly. It's no wonder Putin thinks were weak — because we give him every reason to do so.

  19. The Kremlin is smarter about Western politics than most of the clowns we elect. They want constant headlines about "Ukraine in retreat" even if they have to kill tens of thousands of troops to do it. They know they win if the biggest clown of all is returned to office.

  23. Ukraine simps will cry about being outgunned 10:1 but the turn around and say they are killing Russians 15:1. Which is it?

  25. Russia has taken more land in the last month than Ukraine has taken in the last year. Especially more than the failed counter offensive

  26. All land have value Paul. Please stop making excuses for the Neo-Notsee’s. Russia is taking all this land cause Ukraine sent alotta troops to Kharkiv

  27. Glad the origins & #'s have been established. The mass move into Europe, UK & US, has been Putin's planning all along. The same as the instability caused by Hamas, Iran, Venezuela and anti-Semitism throughout the world. Right down to Rubles paying South Africas' Governing party's debt in return for ICC litigation. He's leaned on all his toys. I've been writing on this ever since Hamas attacked. Now look at the tactics and understand where Trumps headed, he's also part of Putin's playbook but using his own playbook which is aligned with Putin's style. The co-incidence, behaviour and belligerence is identical – yet he swears he's not a communist sympathiser. Yes, he's looking after his own interests but in sympathetic concert with Putin's motives. Which is why Trump must not be jailed but excommunicated and exiled. He is an ooze, and grand traitor to the anti-red ideology of US. Hope news can find the evidence of this, there must be some, somewhere to ultimately, stake him outside of the capitol for being the Judas he is. Putin, just needs a fist in his face. Say, Paul this is your expertise, will you go witch-slap his bulling untouchable ass?

  28. Do you honestly think some former enlisted American soldier can figure out Vladimir Putin grand scheme? What’s your IQ? Are you a member of Mensa? What makes you qualified to make such a cocky cynical video?

  29. If you are willingly – or let's say recklessly – sacrificing tens of thousands of men for an unprovoked aggression war, just to satisfy your own egomaniac dreams of grandeur…yeah that's crazy. I don't care about bigger pictures. They don't matter. That is simply psychopathic.

  30. România is in the first too, but it keeps it secret. And didn’t make it public. Romania is the only country that is producing and delivering Soviet shells that Ukriane is needed for the most of the front. Romania keep it secret because Russia can retaliate against Romania hitting Moldova. Without braking art 5…

  31. Lots of pro-Russian losers in this chat today. Why oh why do they bother even trying to spin their lies. Who are they trying to convince? I would suggest only themselves and their friends in Iran, Syria, Belarus, Nicaragua, Venezuela and North Korea (True democratic countries 😂).
    It’s so sad that the people of Ukraine are the ones paying with their lives to try and be free from the grips of this disgusting regime, committing war crimes on a daily basis.
    However there will only be one loser and that is the Russian government, and its longer term prosperity. While Zelenskyy will go down in history as the man who stood for democracy and survival of Ukraine. Poor old Vlad will forever be known as the Hitler of the 2000’s, and despised for generations to come.

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