Suzanne Breen
Today at 09:00
Ulster Unionist Health Minister Robin Swann is favourite to win South Antrim and defeat DUP MP Paul Girvan, according to poll analyst Electoral Calculus.
The DUP and Alliance are neck-and-neck in East Belfast, but Gavin Robinson’s party should hold on to Lagan Valley, it suggests.
The company, which specialises in electoral modelling, has made a series of predictions based on today’s Westminster election LucidTalk poll for the Belfast Telegraph, boundary changes, and the results of the last General Election
It currently forecasts that the DUP will hold on to seven of the eight seats it won in 2019 and that the SDLP will retain its two MPs — although Colum Eastwood is at considerably greater risk than Claire Hanna.
Alliance deputy leader Stephen Farry is favourite to win in North Down with the unionist vote split.
Electoral Calculus believes Sinn Fein will keep its seven seats in the House of Commons, with John Finucane seeing off the challenge in North Belfast from the DUP’s Phillip Brett.
It also predicts that Sinn Fein will keep Fermanagh-South Tyrone despite Michelle Gildernew not standing this time.
Ms Gildernew is running in next month’s European election in the Republic’s Midlands North-West constituency.
The Sinn Fein woman has been Fermanagh-South Tyrone MP for the past seven years. She also held the seat from 2001 to 2015, when she was beaten by the UUP’s Tom Elliott.
Despite her not being a candidate, Electoral Calculus sees the constituency as a safe Sinn Fein hold.
That is likely down to boundary changes, with a nationalist part of the Newry and Armagh constituency now moved into Fermanagh-South Tyrone.
Alliance hasn’t yet announced who it is standing. The party’s chances will ultimately depend on whether Naomi Long is the candidate.
Electoral Calculus doesn’t predict any Alliance gains but, after East Belfast, rates the party’s chances of an upset as highest in the Lagan Valley constituency where its candidate, Sorcha Eastwood, is attempting to secure the seat held by Jeffrey Donaldson for 27 years.
The DUP announced on Friday that Jonathan Buckley will be running in the constituency.
And the analyst forecasts that Mr Buckley will retain the seat, with Alliance in second place and the UUP in third.
It views Strangford as the next best hope of a win for Ms Long’s party, although it sees DUP MP Jim Shannon as the clear favourite over Alliance councillor Michelle Guy.
by hashkey
1 comment
How they – or anyone -can speak with such certainly about the outcome of these seats is beyond me. The TUV have said they’ll stand and we have no idea how that’ll pan out. They could bottle it, they could stand and make no difference or they could stand and split the DUP vote resulting in the DUP losing seats.