Ukraine: Northern Border LIBERATED! But is it the Whole Story?

Ukrainian president zalinski has announced that Ukraine has taken back control of the har region but is there a little more to this story than appears on the surface I’m Paul US Army Combat veteran let’s break it down okay so this is interesting because well zalinsky has publicly put out a statement that says quote Ukrainian forces have secured combat control of areas where Russian troops entered the northeastern harke region earlier this month at least according to to zalinski he said quote our soldiers have managed to take combat control of the Border area where where the Russian occupiers entered zinsky said in his nightly video address Friday evening right but these are at ODS with Russian officials who are continue to claim that they control more than half the town of volens 3 miles inside the Border uh of course this has been a uh contested region for the last several weeks uh as Russian forces appeared to have launched their Northern offensive early um likely in anticipation of uh growing Ukrainian strength as they receive more and more us Aid um now taking a look at the combat map what I find interesting is that there hasn’t actually been an update on the Frontline region the only change right you can see here appears to be a small noted repositioning of where Russian forces uh hold control which shows them controlling actually slightly more uh Westward of this town of volens and what so when we look at zelinsky’s statement he uses a couple of interesting phrases the first is combat control right which is not the same thing is interesting because sometimes they simply announce hey we’ve liberated these Villages right that seems to indicate some sort of sustained level of control uh combat control seems to denote something different it may mean that they’ve achieved a temporary uh seizure of an area or that it’s contested um but Ukrainian forces believe they are uh in charge so to speak um this would be really unusual to see something like this um but he also says you know the interesting part of the quote is that it’s they control the Border area where the Russian occupiers entered and that would imply that the actual point in which they entered looked like it was in pilna we’ll we’ll we’ll back things up a month and we’ll try to discern where exactly they entered right so you can see here it looks like they entered through pilna and maybe through Bor uh biva or possibly even through Stila uh and then over here you have them obviously entering through plena and you can see Russian forces right pouring over the Border trying to expand out so what I suspect this is a reference to is possibly Ukrainian forces attacking along this flank seizing part of plona now this would be a pretty tremendous Advantage they may also it’s it would be more difficult for them to take uh uh P Pena py um because you can see that they would have to flank into Russian Sovereign territory something that the uh Western allies have been really reluctant to authorize Ukraine to do um but again Ukraine has done it their freedom of Russia Legion has operated in this region for some time um and again as we’ve talked about this is in a weird way Russia playing into Ukraine’s hands because the freedom of Russia Legion and other um Ukrainian backed Russian militia have operated in this region and the idea was that it would force Russia to reallocate some of its forces from the Eastern Front to places like bodard which they’ve done um and are now sort of in this harke region uh pinned down in some fighting what where progress has at the very least stalled now if R if Ukraine I strongly suspect that this is a reference to plonka this is the area where most likely you’re going to where Ukraine is most likely able to seize control now what this is is a tremendous advantage because as we’ve talked about Russian forces fighting involved Chens they rely on supplies coming in through Russian Sovereign territory this is one of the chief advantages that they have is that basically because of Western prohibitions on Ukrainian weapon use inside Russian Sovereign territory Russian forces are able to set up really robust Logistics Medical Supply uh all kinds of Preparatory areas and support areas right up to the Border in relative security right without having to deal with the full brunt of Western provided weapons that Ukraine uses and so this means that the Russian forces involved Chens are able to be better supplied better supported in their fight because Ukraine basically can’t stop them right this is in contrast with for example let’s say you are fighting near Lyman persi and you’re the uh one of these storm Z units the 138 separate motor rifle Brigade well in order to get supplies right in order to supply those forces they have to Transit right let’s say they use this road here they have to Transit approximately 30 kilometers through Ukrainian territory meaning they are subject to Ukrainian strikes and you can see how uh this this becomes a tremendous logistical problem for Russian troops basically anywhere inside the front line they have to Transit through these areas where Ukrainian forces are authorized to strike not so here at least now but by seizing plonka Ukraine would sever that connection right and it would mean that UK that Russian forces fighting involv Chens would now have to at least work a little harder to maintain a level of resupply right their best bet maybe through this this Railway here um but honestly it seems like there’s only this road right uh and and let’s take a look over at this somewhat more detailed live view a map you can see the t2108 highway leading to vens if they can seize that uh in plenka then there’s not really much in the line of other routes they could handw walk some limited supplies through this Railway but if the railway is destroyed which is pretty easy to do um that’s what they’re going to be reduced to is is basically hand carrying stuff through here uh it may be possible that some of these small Trails might also uh allow them to kind of walk supplies in but this is very small and it’s nothing like controlling a major highway that would allow a continuous flow of supplies to to Aid Russian forces fighting in vens so I suspect that that’s what has likely happened here um and it really is a bad bad news for the Russian forces involv Chens who seem to have been getting stalled out and by some accounts possibly pushed back in some places overall though does it mean something uh terrible for uh the Russian troops uh well we’re going to talk about that in a second but of course guys I wanted to just say a huge thank you to everyone that has has purchased the five-pack of strike gum uh it’s available now it’s on strike gum.com or on Amazon it’s perfect if you don’t want to order just like a single pack I understand that um if you want to try it the single pack is perfect uh but you know the shipping cost is basically the same no matter which of these you order 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such a powerful natural obstacle um and I suspect that the fighting here is been is kind of a planned phased withdrawal by Ukrainian forces um and they’re likely spending they’re likely buying time for other forces to really establish really good defense works here near C NOA and by establishing this kind of good defense offensive position uh it’s going to be really hard for Russian forces to launch any kind of offensive action so again I see that kind of withdrawal and if you’ve been on this channel you know for weeks I’ve been saying it’s going to happen uh what I thought was more interesting is Russian forces is trying to advance actually to the northeast of umansky which as we’ve talked about they really it seems like Russia wants to seize this um the town of Yas no broen broa uh so if they want to seiz yes no uh they’re going to have to advance through natova which they control this flank here then they’re going to have to control the umansky flank and this is kind of a tall order right it involves Russian forces assaulting across open ground um and that’s pretty tough for them so they may continue to try to do this but the thing is they need to stop their forces from advancing near yes yes no um if they want to successfully seize this little Peninsular position um and it’s a little tough I think coordination uh sophisticated coordination among Russian forces is actually pretty tough um command and control on that tactical level seems kind of limited um because of the high churn rate of their forces and so I think some of the more sophisticated like flanking holding uh OverWatch blocking it can get a little tough for those forces uh not to say impossible but I think it’s just kind of tough and then the final area that I did want to point out real quick uh was near uh kka let’s see if we can pull this up here real quick um yeah uh in kitka we’re seeing some Russian advances but we’ve talked about this too my face here so you could see right Russian forces advancing through the absolutely obliterated town of kka but we’ve talked about this before that this is in low ground here and these forces in these lines have The High Ground so they have really good observation they have good fields of fire on kitka so while I understand Ukrainian forces may have chosen to withdraw and Russian forces in this Windbreak may be able to provide some level of fire support I’m pretty skeptical that one anyone there’s any real value in holding Kiva itself as a village right it’s obliterated um it’s only value is in drawing Russian forces out and punishing them for doing it and dancing into low ground when the enemy controls The High Ground above you and you don’t control the flanks is a really really really dangerous tactical decision and the fact that Russia has kind of done so is just a sign that again they are willing to in incur casualties at a pretty eye-watering level um and and make things that don’t make a ton of tactical sense um unless you accept that like that Russia sits there and goes we know this is going to incur a lot of casualties taking this town but it is important that we seize this town or the skeletal remnants of what used to be a town um even in the face of basically unrelenting Ukrainian drones and artillery and they do it like I’m not going to sit there and be like they’re not advancing they are the ukrainians are but the ukrainians I think this is 50% ukrainians being like why would we fight here like like we’re fighting over nothing this isn’t worth it we’ve punished the Russians enough let’s let them sit in kichka in the bottom of this barrel and get tore up by Ukrainian forces up here now they may try to assault up the hill up Kiva and try to sort of pinch the ukrainians out that’s possible and that’s likely what the Russians will try to do but will they incur a lot of casualties in the meantime probably so again we’re seeing a Russia that is committed to advancing anywhere and everywhere they can um it’s not clear the Strate there is a strategy that strategy is continuous pressure across the front line anyway guys that’s all I had thanks to the colonel tier members thanks to Lieutenant tier members be sure to subscribe to the channel if you appreciate this kind of analysis and I will see you guys in the next one cheers

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Original Video:
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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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50 comments

  1. Russia keeps sending minorities to the meat grinder who will be there to stop China from taking the far east?

  4. when Russia provided interception of telephone conversations and according to other sources, the military of NATO countries themselves bring missiles to Ukraine, they themselves scout targets, program the flight of missiles themselves, and launch missiles themselves. At the same time, they do not inform the AFU command about the purposes of missile launches. Since there are many traitors in the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, if all missile launches against Russians are carried out exclusively by NATO military structures, then Russia may well recognize NATO countries as participants in the war and respond with military force. This is what forces NATO countries not to allow launches on the territory of Russia.

  7. Yes there is more. The Russians have had a hard slog of it.
    We first understand that the top in Russia are like the top people everywhere. Their concerns start with themselves.
    In February 2022, it was thought that part of the Ukraine could be snatched, bringing property to the top dogs.
    The former head of the agriculture in Russia made claim to 400,000 acres of Ukraine cropland on behalf of his company. The local and purportedly independent part of the Ukraine was claiming the same – lost that disagreement. A quick victory would assure more spoils. At the last moment when it was clear that Mr. Putin was going to go ahead with invading, the head of the FSB and the generals who had been urging it had a problem. They had been raking off so much money and lying for so long that there was a chance of losing. So, at the last moment they opposed.

    1. it has never been a problem and will never be a problem getting poor, untrained people to join in meatwave attacks.
    2. only recently has the ability of Russia to field repaired/stored/new armored vehciles fallen below the losses. And it will take another couple of years of that level of losses before the Russians are reduced to parity on the front line.
    3. the problem is that the chances of Russia achieving military victory and dictating terms of surrender are greatly reduced.
    4. the likelihood that top Russian dogs will see their wealth greatly reduced is now looming.

  8. Klitchevka was part of the Ukrainian counter offensive ,they paid hard to take it but so did the Russians in losing it .

  9. As an American I feel Nato and possible USA is loosing on the battle field and in the economical war against Brics Russia/China …the only reason Russia is not going on a rampage in Ukraine is not to escalate hot war between Nato.

  12. Russia in this war be like:
    -invades expecting pretty much no resistance and poorly defending its own flanks
    -push into kiev from one side instead of surrounding it
    -goes around major citoes just to say they arent losing battles
    -gets encircled
    -gets forced to withdrawl from a entire sector
    -retreat
    Results:
    Trench warfare
    Accelerated demographic crisis
    Harsh casualties
    Humiliated on the world stage as the supposed 2nd world power was held back by ukraine even with very limited NATO aid

  13. I assume that "combat control" means that UKR can put fires into the whole salient. Not that UKR troops are actually standing there. UKR cannot safely move troops that close to the RUS border without getting overwhelmed.

  14. An unsuspecting individual reading president Zelensky's statement might understand that Russians have been pushed over the border. The statement looks intentionally obscure, maybe to create a feel–good factor.

  18. "Combat control" sounds like another way of saying "stopped the advance and regained the initiative".
    What they really need is F16s and the US to stop trying to limit where Ukraine can target (i.e. hit russian forces and logistics in the territory of russia).

  19. Again, excellent analysis. Thanks Paul for keeping us up to date, I follow many channels and still consider you top notch.💛💙🔱 Slava Ukraini

  20. This video of yours really reminds me that I would be very interested in your opinion of Anders Puck Nielsen's video "Russia's Kharkiv offensive – what is the plan?". I don't think you do reaction videos very much but I would be quite interested to hear your take on that one.

  21. Ukraine never stood a chance… russia is now in pause mode… for 6months after trump becomes president bye bye ukraine. 👋

  22. Russia is engaged with battle of retraction to eliminate Ukrainian forces. This is probing operation in Kharkiv area. This is their demilitarisation policy in Ukraine, I think this is their policy.

  27. "Combat control" is a loose translation of "fire control". Zelensky meant Ukraine has means of atacking russian supply routes on the way to Vovchansk, likely with drones & arty.
    I don't think there is any positive ground control changes (as of yet)

  29. LOL. Zelenski flat out lies. Ukraine supporters confused about what he was really trying to say and how it might be true in some abstract way. Hey Charlie Brown. Come kick this football again. All Ukraine ever does is lie about everything. You guys need to stop freaking out. Russia is only going to do what they said they were going to do. They are going to create a buffer zone to stop Ukraine from bombing civilian cities with artillery and tactical rockets.

  32. Take a russian or ukrainian class already FFS, every sentence makes me cringe more than the previous one

  33. the screaming orcs in the comments prove that Ukraine is doing good. thanks for the report Paul, greetings from Estonia

  34. If you have weapons to defend (!), you should be allowed to use to defend…if you border russia and russia attacks you, you should be able to defend against army build up in russia against you. This is ridiculous.

  35. russian officials are a trustzworthy as some fortuneteller in the middle ages.

    Their whole military is revolving around lies.

  39. You people are crazy, whilst sat at home salivating for war, when the missiles start flying I hope all those who are laughing, will still be laughing when we start loosing loved ones

  41. Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (18–24 May 2024)

    From 18 May to 24 May 2024, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out 49 group strikes by high-precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles, which hit the enemy military airfield infrastructure, missiles, ammunition and fuel storages, and the production facilities for uncrewed surface vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles.

    In addition, temporary deployment areas of the AFU mampower, foreign mercenaries and nationalist formations, as well as enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine were hit.

    Over the past week, units of the Sever Group of Forces liberated Staritsa (Kharkov region) as a result of active actions and continued the advance to the depth of the enemy defence.

    Servicemen of the Sever Group of Forces inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of five brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and four territorial defence brigades.

    Twenty three counter-attacks of assault groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were repelled close to Glubokoye, Tikhoye, Liptsi, and Volchansk (Kharkov region).

    The enemy losses amounted to up to 1,840 troops, six tanks, eight armoured fighting vehicles, 40 motor vehicles, four Grad and Vampire MLRS combat vehicles, as well as 37 field artillery guns.

    The Zapad Group of Forces' units captured more advantageous lines, and also defeated units of four AFU mechanised brigades, two territorial defence brigades, and one national guard brigade.

    Over the past 24 hours, 15 counter-attacks were repelled by units of four AFU brigades and one national guard brigade close to Grigorovka (Donetsk People's Republic), Chervonaya Dibrova, Novovodyanoye, and Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People's Republic).

    The AFU losses amounted to up to 2,040 Ukrainian troops, two tanks, 18 armoured fighting vehicles, 19 motor vehicles, two Grad MLRS combat vehicles, and 32 field artillery guns, to include 14 Western-made.

    Over the past week, units of the Yug Group of Forces have liberated three settlements: Belogorovka, Kleshcheyevka, and Andreyevka (Donetsk People's Republic), and continued to advance to the depths of the enemy defence.

    Servicemen of the Yug Group of Forces inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of seven AFU brigades and four territorial defence brigades.

    The AFU losses amounted to up to 3,285 Ukrainian troops, seven tanks, 13 armoured fighting vehicles, 46 motor vehicles, 32 field artillery guns, to include 27 Western-made.

    In addition, ten AFU ammunition depots were destroyed.

    The Tsentr Group of Forces' units improved the situation along the front line and defeated units of nine AFU and Ukrainian National Guard's formations.

    Forty one counter-attacks launched by assault groups of eight AFU brigades were repelled close to Shumy, Netaylovo, Novokalinovo, Umanskoye, Ocheretino, Archangelskoye, and Solovyovo (Donetsk People's Republic).

    During the week, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost up to 2,770 Ukrainian troops, one tank, 26 motor vehicles, 35 field artillery guns, and 20 armoured fighting vehicles, including four German-made Marder infantry fighting vehicles, as well as five Bradley and three U.S.-made MaxxPro armoured personnel carriers in this direction.

    The Vostok Group of Forces' units improved the tactical situation and hit manpower and hardware of AFU motorised infantry and territorial defence brigades.

    Nine counter-attacks launched by assault groups of AFU mechanised, territorial defence, and national guard brigades were repelled near Vladimirovka, Staromayorskoye, and Urozhaynoye (Donetsk People's Republic).

    The AFU losses amounted to up to 920 Ukrainian troops, 13 armoured fighting vehicles, 39 motor vehicles, and 18 field artillery guns, to include ten Western-made.

    The units of the Dnepr Group of Forces have engaged manpower and hardware of two marine brigades, three AFU brigades, two territorial defence formations, as well as one national guard brigade.

    The AFU losses amounted to up to 350 Ukrainian troops, three tanks, two armoured fighting vehicles, 35 motor vehicles, two Grad MLRS launchers, as well as 24 field artillery guns, including seven U.S.-made M777 howitzers, and one UK-made FH-70 towed howitzer.

    Air defence units have shot down two MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force, eight French-made SCALP-EG cruise missiles, 25 U.S.-made ATACMS and Tochka-U operational-tactical missiles, 18 French-made Hammer guided bombs, 13 U.S.-made HARM anti-radiation missiles, one Neptun anti-ship missile, 91 HIMARS, Vampire, and Olkha MLRS projectiles, as well as 356 unmanned aerial vehicles.

    Over the past week, 67 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered on the line of contact.

  46. 0:01 First second of the video, first sentence and already a mistake. "Ukranian president Zelensky", he isn't president anymore by ukranian constitution, we talk about MISTER Zelensky sitting there in his office and leading Ukraine.

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