In DUP headquarters, they’re praying that Naomi Long doesn’t put her party before herself. They hope the Alliance leader will swerve standing in East Belfast.
If she runs in the Westminster election, then Gavin Robinson could be in big trouble. Long loves Stormont and being justice minister. She’s not keen on the commute that being an MP involves, but she also knows the political realities of the situation.
Alliance is brimming with talent in Parliament Buildings. There is no shortage of capable MLAs who could take on the justice portfolio.
Paula Bradshaw, Nuala McAllister or Sorcha Eastwood — although the latter may end up in the House of Commons herself — would be highly effective in a ministerial role.
But there is only one Alliance politician who can win East Belfast: Long’s name is synonymous with the constituency.
If she doesn’t go for it, her MLA colleague Peter McReynolds would be the likely candidate.
I’m sure he’d secure a decent vote, but he wouldn’t get anywhere close to Robinson.
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This is a chance for Alliance to decapitate the DUP. That’s not language the party itself would ever use, yet it is nevertheless true.
When Peter Robinson lost his Westminster seat to Long, he was still first minister.
But Gavin Robinson would have to be co-opted into the Assembly if he was defeated, and the optics of that would be awful.
The TUV will this week announce that it’s contesting East Belfast. Those angry at the DUP’s decision to return to Stormont while the Irish Sea border remains intact will have a candidate to vote for.
Some loyalists might be so fed up that they just decide not to vote, which is equally dangerous for Robinson.
As the party’s deputy leader when the deal to restore devolution was agreed, he can hardly distance himself from it.
He was politically tied to the hip with Sir Jeffrey Donaldson during its negotiation.
He has tried to row back from claims the former DUP leader made at the time about what was agreed, but he hasn’t been entirely convincing.
The party was rocked when Donaldson was charged with historical sex offences, charges which he strenuously denies.
There was a huge degree of sympathy for Robinson when he took over the reins in the most inauspicious circumstances two months ago.
He sat before the cameras shell-shocked and struggling to hold back tears. It was an entirely human response to a scenario that nobody could ever in their wildest dreams have imagined unfolding.
But, unlike the man he replaced, he is not a natural at the PR side of things.
He is a competent, but sometimes stiff, media performer. Robinson needed longer to grow into the role at the helm of the DUP.
The timing of this election is awful for him and the party. Donaldson is due to appear at Newry Courthouse on the eve of the election, July 3, in the next stage of the historical sex offences case.
Going to the polls a week before the Twelfth, when loyalist feeling is at its strongest, is also far from ideal.
Alliance went much closer than it expected in East Belfast in 2019 with Long on 19,000 votes to Robinson’s 21,000.
The party benefited from the Greens, Sinn Fein and the SDLP not standing then. Those parties are set to run this time, but significant tactical voting by their supporters is expected.
Robinson is a very hard worker. He is well liked in the constituency. As one of the DUP’s most sensible and pragmatic figures, he doesn’t scare moderate, middle-class unionists, yet his party hasn’t inspired their confidence in recent years.
DUP WhatsApp messages during the Covid pandemic, which were published last week, were extremely nasty about the Alliance leader.
A unionist pact in 2015 saw Robinson beat her by more than 2,500 votes. In a thundering acceptance speech, he was far from gracious declaring that “the last five long years are over”, and voters could now “go forward with someone they can trust”.
Gavin Robinson in The King's Hall after taking East Belfast from Naomi Long in 2015
There are some in Alliance who have never forgotten that speech. Victory for Long is certainly not guaranteed and the stakes are high for her too, but the party knows it has a fighting chance.
Figures from both the DUP and UUP have told me she isn’t running. I suspect they’re wrong. For a whole host of reasons, I believe Naomi won’t say no to East Belfast.
Sunak and Tories all washed up
Rishi Sunak standing drenched in the rain outside Number 10 as Things Can Only Get Better blasts in the background.
Far from appearing statesmanlike, the prime minister looked like he’d just crawled out of the Thames as he called an election.
It was as if Labour had commissioned a piece of performance art to show how terrible the Tories are.
A soggy Sunak was entirely avoidable. The government recently spent £2.6m on a new indoor media briefing room.
If he was insistent on an outdoor announcement, then an umbrella would have been advisable.
There’s speculation that maybe an aide stopped him bringing a brolly — believing he’d appear unmasculine.
Instead, he looked like a drowned rat, and further helped sink the Conservatives’ chances.
Poll timing couldn’t be worse for me
My next six weeks were all sorted. A family break down the Antrim coast after my eldest daughter finishes her GCSEs next month.
And then a trip to beautiful Portsalon in Donegal for the wedding of one of my best friends on July 4.
Now it’s polling stations and an all-night count that lie ahead.
I adore elections, but the timing of this one sucks.
by heresmewhaa
1 comment
>they’re praying that Naomi Long doesn’t put her party before herself.
I reckon you could still see her if she did that.