Experts have warned the SDLP will be “effectively over” as a political party if Colum Eastwood loses his Foyle seat in the upcoming General Election.
It comes after the fallout from a mayoral selection process that analysts said could prove particularly damaging.
Shauna Cusack, a Derry councillor for more than 11 years, and deputy mayor Jason Barr resigned because of grievances over the matter.
Senior figures said the process had been “unanimously supported” by the membership.
However, this newspaper has seen internal correspondence saying a selection convention had been arranged for April 29 at Harbour House in Derry.
The event was then cancelled and Lilian Barr selected as the preferred candidate, making history as the first black mayor in Northern Ireland.
Lilian Barr
Claire Hanna MP, acting as chair of the selection committee, sent an email informing Ms Cusack and Mr Barr they had been unsuccessful and that “only one candidate met the threshold to go forward for the position”.
The experience left a sour taste for Ms Cusack, who described it as a “very hurtful and disappointing episode” and one which left her with “questions about how goalposts in a democratic process can be moved”.
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Jon Tonge, a professor of British and Irish politics at the University of Liverpool, said the upcoming General Election was “the most crucial in the SDLP’s history because if it was to lose both its Westminster seats, the party [would be] effectively over”.
He added: “The SDLP needs those seats. Sinn Fein, as an abstentionist party, on one level isn’t that bothered about Westminster. The SDLP needs Westminster seats for relevance.
“It’s sister party of Labour, which is heading for government, so it will potentially have more influence in the next Westminster parliament.”
Mr Tonge believes the SDLP is “perfectly capable” of defending Mr Eastwood’s seat in Foyle and Claire Hanna’s in South Belfast.
But he also said the party leader’s majority had come out of nowhere and could disappear.
A “perfect storm” and “internal rows” within Sinn Fein were in play last time, but now “it is the SDLP with the problems given the row over the mayor”, Mr Tonge warned. He added: “It’s not unfair to Colum Eastwood to say his leadership is at stake because if he were to lose those two seats, you do wonder where the party would go.”
Jon Tonge
Gerry Murray, a chartered accountant and veteran election number cruncher for the BBC, said he expected a “significant reduction” in Mr Eastwood’s majority in this election.
He based that on the Sinn Fein performance in last year’s local election, where the party out-polled the SDLP by 1.5 to 1.
Mr Murray, who previously chaired the SDLP in Derry, said Michelle O’Neill’s party was “far better organised on the ground”.
He added: “While Elisha McCallion got 9,771 [in the last general election], the Sinn Fein vote in the 2023 council elections was nearer to 18,000, so there is a hardcore Sinn Fein vote.
“That would not come to 26,881, which Eastwood got [in 2019], but I think it is significant when you add in the council debacle — and I would call it a debacle — over the last few weeks.
“I think that is going to cost them. It will cost them in Strabane, where Jason Barr resigned, and it will cost them locally.
“Whether that will be enough to tilt the balance is debatable, but it will [have an] impact.
“The reason I say that is there were previous council debacles by the SDLP, but they never impacted on John Hume’s vote.
“A lot of people are sore about [the selection process] and they blame Colum. They don’t blame Lilian, they blame Colum for the fiasco.”
Gerry Murray (Photo by Martin McKeown)
Mr Murray said he found it odd that Sinn Fein took so long to confirm Sandra Duffy as its Foyle candidate and that it allowed the SDLP to steal a march on its rival.
Asked if he believed Ms Duffy could beat Mr Eastwood, it was a resounding, “no”.
He explained: “I would say Sinn Fein’s vote would be 17,500. I think the SDLP could be about 19,000.”
“If I was a Sinn Fein strategist, I’d be thinking ‘If we can take the head of the SDLP, like the hybrid-headed monster… if we can remove Eastwood, the SDLP will almost cease to function.
“At the moment, it’s held together by a very thin thread, and were they to lose Foyle, I think the party is over.”
The SDLP and Sinn Fein were contacted for comment.
by BelfastBodyBuilder
14 comments
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out Colum.
> “The reason I say that is there were previous council debacles by the SDLP, but they never impacted on John Hume’s vote. “A lot of people are sore about [the selection process] and they blame Colum. They don’t blame Lilian, they blame Colum for the fiasco.”
>
> …
>
> Asked if he believed Ms Duffy could beat Mr Eastwood, it was a resounding, “no”. He explained: “I would say Sinn Fein’s vote would be 17,500. I think the SDLP could be about 19,000.”
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> _“If I was a Sinn Fein strategist, I’d be thinking ‘If we can take the head of the SDLP, like the hybrid-headed monster_ [ _sic_ AF ] …”
Jesus but he screwed that line up in a fuckload of ways; the ~~hybrid~~ Hydra sprouted two new heads for each one removed.
That aside, it’ll be a race to watch, regardless. Not quite as interesting as East Belfast because decapitation of the DUP might have serious effects on the party’s direction…. whereas the SDLP is already a political headless chicken.
The best Sinn Féin strategy might be to leave Eastwood where he is.
What’s he gotten for Derry by going over to Parliament?
I think SF is slightly more likely to win this contest. Nobody cares about Colum anymore, Brexit isn’t the issue anynore, SF is on a high and SDLP are less popular in general, less Unionists will lend Colum their vote to get SF out, Colum hasn’t justified his time in Westminster… It’s not impossible for Colum to win by any stretch but every factor is against him, when in 2019 every factor was in his favour
It will be a very sad day if the SDLP fade away. People here seem to hate colum or say the party is not what it was. But they have pushed for a better NI and they were one of the few who delivered.
Fingers crossed! Any allegiance I had to them has disappeared under Eastwood.
Is this likely to happen? Eastwood won with a huge majority last time, Foyle couldn’t get rid of McCallion quickly enough.
Then, there was the whole fiasco with Martina Anderson.
It’s amazing that Sinn Fein still have the support they do in Foyle.
Been finished for years. Can only stoop so low surely.
I’ll vote for any party that boycotted the white house in March, unlike SF.
The SDLP, like the UUP were finished years ago. This is just their death throes, another few election cycles will see the coup de grâce delivered.
Final nail in the coffin for the SDLP was the disgraceful ‘election’ of the new Mayor of Derry
Bar the nationalist/unionist policy there is little difference between them and alliance
It’ll ultimately be bad for nationalism if it’s only represented by one party – Just look to the SNP. If that party flounders, so does the whole movement
Useless git