Climate change makes airplane turbulence more frequent and more intense

2 comments

1. It was a terrifying and deadly experience. On May 21, [a 73-year-old British man died](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/transport/article/2024/05/21/one-dead-others-injured-after-london-singapore-flight-hit-severe-turbulence-singapore-airlines-says_6672165_216.html) and some 100 people were injured on a Singapore Airlines flight from London to Singapore. Severe turbulence caused the plane to plummet 1,800 meters in minutes, forcing the Boeing 777 to make an emergency landing in Bangkok, Thailand. On Sunday, [12 people were also injured on a Doha-Dublin flight](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2024/05/26/12-injured-in-turbulence-during-doha-dublin-flight_6672728_19.html) due to turbulence over Turkey. These two events, which are the subject of ongoing investigations, have rekindled questions about the impacts of climate change on this type of unstable weather phenomena.

   Turbulence is a sudden, irregular movement of air that occurs most frequently in three situations: during thunderstorms and storms, over mountains, and in clear air. The first two types are easily detected by pilots, either visually or by radar. The final type, meanwhile, is considered the most dangerous, as these phenomena are invisible and occur unexpectedly.

   Clear-air turbulence is caused by vertical wind shear events, when two air masses overlap and move at different speeds or in different directions. “An airplane lifted upward over a distance can suddenly lose support and drop a few dozen meters,” explained Nicolas Bellouin, a climate modeler at the University of Reading (UK) and researcher at Paris Sorbonne University’s Aviation and Climate chair. Wind shear phenomena occur most often in the vicinity of jet streams, powerful air currents which move around the globe at altitudes of 8 to 12 kilometers, a range in which airplanes fly.

   Climate change, which is linked to the burning of fossil fuels and therefore in part to aviation, is set to worsen these situations. Clear-air turbulence has already become more frequent over the past 40 years, according to a [landmark British study published in June 2023 in the journal *Geophysical Research Letters*](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL103814). Severe turbulence has increased by 55% over the North Atlantic, from 17.7 hours per year in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020. This is one of the world’s busiest air routes, with almost 2,000 flights a day between Europe and North America. Moderate turbulence has increased by 37% (reaching 96 hours per year) and light turbulence by 17% (547 hours). The study results show similar increases over the US.

   **Read the full article here:** [**https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2024/05/29/climate-change-makes-airplane-turbulence-more-frequent-and-more-intense_6672973_114.html**](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2024/05/29/climate-change-makes-airplane-turbulence-more-frequent-and-more-intense_6672973_114.html)

2. But on the positive side, more turbulence might make more people afraid of flying, which is a plus for the climate.