SNP dealt blow as poll shows majority believe no progress made on independence case since referendum
by garfeel-lzanya
SNP dealt blow as poll shows majority believe no progress made on independence case since referendum
by garfeel-lzanya
11 comments
>he SNP’s independence strategy has been dealt a further blow after a stark poll revealed almost three fifths of Scots think the case for separation has not strengthened since the 2014 referendum.
>Since the Supreme Court ruled that Holyrood does not have the authority to hold its own referendum 18 months ago, the Scottish Government has focused on building the renewed case for independence instead of dwelling on the route to ending the Union.
>But a poll by Savanta has found that 59 per cent of Scots believe the case for independence is weaker now than it was in 2014 or that there has been no progress in strengthening it since the referendum, won by the No campaign.
>SNP leader John Swinney has vowed that independence will be “page one, line one” of his party’s manifesto to be published in the coming weeks ahead of the general election. But the new poll indicates that a lack of progress has been made on convincing Scots of the case for independence over the last decade.
>Savanta interviewed 1,067 Scots between May 24-28 and found 39 per cent believe the case for independence is weaker now than it was in 2014, while 20 per cent think it is no stronger or weaker now than 10 years ago. 35 per cent of Scots believe the independence case is now stronger.
>Worryingly for Mr Swinney, the poll shows that more than one fifth who voted SNP at the 2021 Holyrood election now believe the case for independence is weaker now than it was back in 2014.
>The poll separately showed the level of support for independence remained split, with 52 per cent in favour of remaining in the UK and 48 per cent backing separation, excluding don’t knows.
>Mr Swinney has called on people to “unite to win the powers of independence” at the general election on July 4, insisting it will “strengthen our economy, tackle the cost of living and bring about a fairer country”.
>Mr Swinney has confirmed his party’s independence strategy remains being based on winning a majority of Scottish seats at the forthcoming general election.
>The First Minister has stressed that securing a majority would be a mandate for another referendum on independence and he would “proceed with urgency” if the SNP wins a majority of Scottish seats. But polls suggest Labour is on course to become the biggest party in Scotland at the general election.
>Since becoming leader of the SNP, Mr Swinney has said he will concentrate his efforts on “winning the arguments and building support” for independence instead of obsessing over a route to separation.
>He added: “Independence is going to be front and centre of our mission – it always has been – and the work will continue.”
>The Scottish Government has published 13 papers in its building a better Scotland series – intended to set out the renewed case for independence. But Mr Swinney, in one of his first acts as FM, axed the post of independence minister in a bid to unite Holyrood.
>Since the 2014 referendum, the SNP has pointed to Brexit and a chaotic Westminster government under the Conservatives as justification for pushing the case for independence.
>Speaking to Scotland on Sunday, Alba party general secretary, Chris McEleny, said: “If you had said on September 19, 2014 that within a matter of years Scotland would be dragged out of the EU against its will, that David Cameron’s Windrush scandal home secretary would end up in Number 10, Boris Johnson would be prime minister and an unknown Tory called Liz Truss would have a brief stint in which she would tank the economy, even the dogs in the street would have said that Scotland would surely be independent under those scenarios.
>“Instead, the Nicola Sturgeon government threw away every single incremental gain that they were handed by the independence movement and Alex Salmond.”
>He added: “First they spent years fixated on overturning the Brexit vote instead of realising that England’s difficulty was Scotland’s opportunity, and then they decided to get lost in the highways and byways of gender self identification when they should’ve been focused on self-determination.
>“The independence movement has ran out of patience and that is why the Alba party is ensuring they have a new party to vote for instead of going back to the yoke of Labour-Tory mediocrity.”
>Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: ““The question of whether the case for independence is stronger or weaker now than in 2014 unsurprisingly divides Scottish opinion. But time is on the side of the pro-independence camp, as half of younger people think the case is stronger, compared to one in four over 55s.
>“Interestingly, despite no overall movement in how people say they would vote, three in ten of those who they’d vote Yes now think the case for independence is either weaker or the same as before. The onus continues to be on Scottish independence campaigners to make sure they’re converting those supportive of their cause.”
>Scottish Conservative deputy leader Meghan Gallacher said that “for the SNP it is always party before country – whether it is backing their pals or pushing for independence”.
>She added: “Voters are sick and tired of their independence obsession and want them to focus on their real priorities.
>”In key seats up and down Scotland, voters can send a message to John Swinney and the SNP and help end their independence obsession for good, by voting Scottish Conservative.”
>The poll also reveals that only 25 per cent of Scots believe independence is in their top five priorities at the general election, compared with 66 per cent who believe the economy is important, 71 per cent who focus on inflation and the cost-of-living crisis and 77 who said the NHS was priority. Independence is also seen as less important than immigration, housing, climate change and education.
>But speaking yesterday, Mr Swinney insisted that in the general election “the only way to protect Scotland from Westminster folly is for decisions about Scotland to be made in Scotland – with independence”.
>The SNP was contacted for comment.
>The poll separately showed the level of support for independence remained split, with 52 per cent in favour of remaining in the UK and 48 per cent backing separation, excluding don’t knows.
https://preview.redd.it/oftfntpbp44d1.jpeg?width=706&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=de9fe5b6649476f497826b68f080482a9553ac3b
I mean, whether you support indy or no, it’s objectively true.
If anything they’ve taken it backwards.
While polling remains fairly static, without a strong party driving it and pressurising the U.K. government, where does it come from? Alba and Ash Regan? The Greens? Pffft.
The scandals damaging the party also damage the Indy movement.
This de facto referendum looks like it will come back to bite them too. Folk like Flynn are still backing it as the strategy.
If the polls are correct, the unionists will now be able to claim a win in 2014, static polling at less than 50% ever since AND another win in this de facto referendum only the SNP seems to want.
They’ve shat the bed on this. Again, even if you are a supporter of Indy, that can’t really be sensibly denied.
Indy is fucking boring.
The Defacto phrase is embarrassing.
Brexit shows what happens when you break up.
Indies want to leave the Union. Brexitish part 1.
Build up the country and break it up again by joining Europe. Brexitish part 2.
What is it with Indies they think Indy is going to give them all their fantasies. All you do is feed a MSPs ego.
Interesting that support for Independence still holding steady – even with the prospect of a Labour government on the horizon.
The key questions are still unanswered.
I voted for independence, but knew it was a lost cause during one of Alex Salmond and Alistair Darlings live debates. When questioned on currency, pensions etc. Salmond fell apart. It was very clear they didn’t have a plan.
I wouldn’t vote for independence now, in fact, I would vote for holyrood to have less control.
>Since becoming leader of the SNP, Mr Swinney has said he will concentrate his efforts on “winning the arguments and building support” for independence instead of obsessing over a route to separation.
It feels like the SNP are just going through the motions now. They’ve no idea how to get to independence so they’ll keep singing the same song.
Imo we need a sensible govt in Westminster and Scottish MPs and MSPs willing to work with them. We need a UK closer to the EU, and we need more devolution. Of course that’ll set off folk going on about red tories and westminster lies but there’s no road left on the SNP’s 2nd ref schtick.
Are we counting reliance on piss poor behaviour from other parties progress and the shocking state of the SNP in general progress of a sort (albeit in the opposite direction)?
The dial has barely moved since the last time, and given everything that’s happened since 2014 you’d expect Yes to be so far out in front it’s gone over the horizon and out of sight.
But it hasn’t. In the face of everything, if _that_ can’t shift the dial when you have to ask what the hell actually can.
And for people to say “we haven’t started campaigning yet” – spare us. You never _stopped_ campaigning, and every time an SNP arsehole says “A vote for the SNP isn’t a vote for independence” you can hear the drum beat starting up again within hours of the election results being announced.
The SNP will have to change their rhetoric. There will no longer be a Tory government and it’ll be a Labour government which has probably 25+ seats in Scotland, therefore not a government “Scotland didn’t vote for”. To say the latter is breathtakingly disrespectful and divisive.
Oh what pish!
Cameron granted a section 30 because he was confident there was no way the Yes vote would win.
Now with polling at 45-55% before a section 30 or a referendum agreed it’s very likely a Yes vote would win.
As future Viceroy of Scotland Lord Murray of Morningside indicated why would they allow something to go ahead if it gives a result they don’t want.
Naff all to do with democracy.
Amazing that a UK that’s skint, cuts benefits for the poor, vulnerable and sick which ever brand of Tory they are, bend over backwards to stop ‘loss making ‘ Scotland from even getting the chance to leave the UK
I wonder why?
🤔🤔🤔
The polls have sat at 50-50 for nearly 10 years now so im completely unsurprised at this.
Sturgeon and Humza doing “defacto” referendums over and over while not actually pursuing Indy was never going to convince the last 10 odd% of voters.
They need to take the next 4 years to unfuck their internal systems, allow a wide range of actual talent to develop and come back strong when the invevitable happens and the Tories get back into power courtesy of the English electorate and Starmer’s pussyfooted nonattempts to actually fix any of the damage they caused.