‘Incredibly dangerous’ for NATO to be engaged in a ‘proxy war’ in Ukraine against Russia

‘Incredibly dangerous’ for NATO to be engaged in a ‘proxy war’ in Ukraine against Russia

joining us now president and founder of the Eurasia group and g0 media Ian Bremer thank you so much for being here um all right so there’s a lot going on right now there’s there’s the president talking to to zalinski you know Vladimir Putin is pushing in on Ukraine there’s also the EU elections can you walk us through what you are watching In This Moment not as much from the EU uh certainly uh the far right is going to outperform they’ll end up with more seats but let’s keep in mind that Georgia Maloney who is the most recognizable and powerful figure there the Italian Prime Minister is a strong supporter of the EU uh pretty close uh with Ursula vandine who runs the European commission and also a strong opponent uh of Putin’s Russia and wants to continue to provide support for Ukraine so I don’t see any big change from the EU also I mean the last few weeks have generally been good for NATO on Ukraine in part because there’s coordination in part because they’re taking more risks remember you now have the US and lots of other countries that are talking about allowing the Ukraine to Target military uh targets inside Ukraine with NATO Weaponry soon you’re going to have uh trainers on the ground for aircraft and other NATO uh equipment in Ukraine itself and you’re going to have tens of billions of dollars of additional money given to Ukraine that comes from the Frozen soon to be seized assets uh of Russia uh that that’s that’s a lot of coordination that’s supporting the ukrainians that you didn’t have a few weeks ago Katie but all of that comes at a cost of potentially increasing the risk certainly increasing the direct engagement of NATO uh in this war yeah I was going to ask about that so NATO and the US are now allowing Ukraine to hit military Targets in Russia but they’re on the border of Ukraine they’re not allowing them to go much further um president zinski seemed to to want to update President Biden maybe on some of that is he arguing for more um approval more access to go deeper into Russia and potentially a stronger Weaponry he certainly is and he is in part because of course the Russians are able to Target Ukraine across their territory it’s civilian targets that they’re hitting um it’s not just energy infrastructure which has been severely damaged in Ukraine over the past weeks and that’s going to hurt them in the winter coming up but of course it’s also terrorizing uh civilians because they’re hitting Targets in urban centers irrespective of whether they are military or not and the ukrainians are saying if they can do that we need to be able to hit Russian military targets across Russia they don’t have the approval to do that uh with NATO Weaponry um what’s going to happen going forward why is NATO doing things I mean Katie if you and I were having this conversation a three years ago before the Russian invasion and we talked about the fact that there was a possible scenario where NATO would be engaged against Russia in a proxy war like this and they’d be providing um you know sort of the ability of the ukrainians to launch weapons directly into Russia that the the Americans the Europeans would all be in favor of that you’d say not only is that crazy you’d say it’s incredibly dangerous and yet that’s where we are so how did we get here um and and the answer is number one because Russia’s deterrence has not stirred up very well Putin says a lot of things you know he threatens the nordics if you join NATO there’s going to be hell to pay they join NATO nothing happens he says you know if you Poland if you keep providing weapons we’re going to hit you they do it he doesn’t hit him so we’re getting more comfortable with it and of course every incremental step you make over a couple years it feels like oh well guess we can do that let’s take the next small step so it’s not like one big jump but also Katie because the war has not gone well over the past few months for Ukraine and Biden apologized for some of that some of that is American political dysfunction some of that is the lack of Ukrainian troops that are trained on the front lines it’s a small country it’s a democracy Russia can send a lot more troops against Ukraine and some of it is a lack of air defense just literally the material doesn’t exist unless you take it away from other countries you put all of that together that has made NATO more willing maybe more desperate but certainly more willing to take risks on that here to for would have been considered too dangerous it would have been an insane conversation to have you wouldn’t want to trigger Article 5 let me ask you uh about the Russian Uh Russian sending a nuclear missile um frig and warships nuclear subs to to Cuba should we be worried about that should we be worried about that well we shouldn’t like it uh because because of course it’s not standard operating procedure for the Russians over the last couple decades on the other hand of course the United States is by far um the most powerful military in the world and the US sends its most advanced um armaments on Military exercises right off the Chinese border right off the Russian border like it happens all the time so I mean in that regard the Russians aren’t doing anything that the Americans don’t do and it would not be useful to panic um over that but you know there is this sense that Russia’s increasingly taking acts that are themselves dangerous and while they’re not going to send tanks into Poland anytime soon or the Baltic states you know there have been cyber attacks by Russia by criminal actors in Russia that Putin’s certainly aware of and allowing um for example against critical infrastructure water facilities in the US France Poland we’re also seeing a lot of arson um in Europe against Eastern Europe against industrial facilities that look to have some of them at least Russian fingerprints on them those are things that are dangerous those were considered a red line by Biden back when he met with Putin in Geneva three years ago in the days of the Russian cyber attacks on the colonial pipeline so there are already things that are happening that are much more dangerous between the United States between NATO and the world’s largest nuclear power Putin’s Russia Ian Bremer Ian thank you very much I I really appreciate the context much needed context in moments like these

Katy Tur is joined by Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President & Founder, amid European Union elections and a push by President Biden for more aid to Ukraine after meeting Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at the 80th D-Day anniversary.

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